Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February

[Singularity]

We’re seeing the models begin to respond to the MJO crossing Indonesia by about a week from now. That promotes a build of high pressure initially across Western Europe, then northward and eastward from there. A bit of an easterly is a plausible result… or a south-easterly like the ECM 12z has for day ten.

Seasonal models have been taking that and running with it as the main theme for the spring season. Perhaps owing to the tropospheric polar vortex imprint being very resilient even as the vortex itself is weakened by wave activity. Whether they’re right to predict that resilience remains to be seen.

[Scorcher]

2 hours ago, tight isobar said:

The issue is we’re not mainland Europe. And also those plots are on knives edges.. as it’ll be as per on cell placement.  Which are ominous In gadging  atm.. to say the least.

If mainland Europe is in double figures, it's very unlikely to be cold here in late Feb/early March.

Not sure why you're so puzzled about people suggesting springlike conditions?

That certainly seems to be the likely direction of travel- and many will welcome that after that last few days.

[Frosty.]

36 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

If mainland Europe is in double figures, it's very unlikely to be cold here in late Feb/early March.

Not sure why you're so puzzled about people suggesting springlike conditions?

That certainly seems to be the likely direction of travel- and many will welcome that after that last few days.

It’s been predominantly spring-like since Dec 1st…speaking of spring-like…ECM 12z op day 10! …get in!  ?  

Edited February 19, 2022 by jon snow

[stodge]

The evolving pattern is quite interesting.

Next week sees the first push of HP into Europe - as said HP tries to ridge north, the amplification draws a very mild S'ly flow over western Europe which would produce spring-like temperatures for a few days until the Atlantic re-asserts.

From then, as March develops, we see a pattern of successive HP cells coming off the Atlantic and each one ridging further NE as the Atlantic weakens so by this time next month you might see this:

That looks an almost summer chart with a moribund Atlantic but note the lowering of heights over western Europe and linking back to LP near the Azores - this transforms the pattern which we have endured all winter (it seems). The PV has relented enough to allow amplification and heights can build north of the British Isles.

Now, I'm NOT saying this will happen or it will happen in this timescale - it's just an option. The point is I would be watching for any fall in heights over the Med and southern Europe linked to LP moving out of North Africa - this would force heights further north - it happens as part of the complex change from the winter to the spring pattern.

[tight isobar]

Aside from the even 240 snap that notes a pump of height rises into mainland Europe =the overall conseinseious is as below!! A quick return to more mobile west \North westerly regime! As for that ecm240 long roader, it undergoes mild @large swathes Europe, but has to be wondered not only the time run for milder weather to dominate...but that milder incursion to formulate cut off height scenarios where we then get fraught with bringing in the large supply of already imbeded cold pretty much northern hemisphere wide!!.. Everyone interprets likely scenario different...my interpretation as noted 500 gefs geopot plots is...it's a false dawn..and at best is a transitional plot of brief milder acct- b4 rapid response of at LEAST cool.mobility \ polar maritmer\= or indeed some source of easterly \ polar continental feed... And please I don't need to hear about March not being a winter month meteorologicaly that obvious.. but March is a delivery month f transition bk to winter month these days ... And I expect March as a whole to end up in index colder than January\ Feb!

 

[tight isobar]

The nearer term* between 25\28 is gaining some traction for a polar outbreak... Early days..but something else to note!!

Edited February 19, 2022 by tight isobar

[tight isobar]

Last 1:  again the 18 z pretty much continues to sum up my thoughts...@ Any milder incursion will be just that...with open doors to colder solutions pretty vast gunninght. Boxing time

Edited February 19, 2022 by tight isobar

[Allseasons-Si]

Thanks for the heads up @tight isobar

i am still keeping my eye on the back door from the east as i said the other night with a Scandi high showing in the gfs/gefs ens and tonight's pick of them goes to pert 20...

i haven't chucked my white towel in just yet as it's only the 19th Feb,...i'd say there is a good four weeks to salvage this dreadful winter yet

 

Edited February 19, 2022 by Allseasons-si

[tight isobar]

00z-gfs again cool/cold throughout- barring “Again a brief milder shot “!  If anything it wants a colder /notable incursion even earlier.. with certainly, snow possibilities practically anywhere in the uk from around 22/25!!

Edited February 20, 2022 by tight isobar

[tight isobar]

Icon also upto 27th-cool - cold throughout.. and also wants an Arctic flavour between and around the dates noted via GFS.

Edited February 20, 2022 by tight isobar

[Mark Smithy]

This is relentless right into March. There is simply no foothold for cold with the jet gun-barrelling into the UK.

[Cambrian]

Reverse psychology? Pah, not around here. The uneventful winter mildfest continues with no chance of further snowfall anywhere in the UK or Ireland. 

And you notice that it’s always at day 10 that the next marginal chance of a snow event is shown. I’d love to see one of these even just at day 4 or 5. Fat chance.

6z GFS operational run for 96h…..

 

In any case, it never gets down in to the Midlands or the south, 99h….

Never hangs about anywhere for anything more than a sleety shower, 102h….

You’re  just kidding yourself if you think that there’s any chance it’s going to settle anywhere other than Ben Nevis. Yeah, but you can’t even get decent snowfall in the Scottish mountains these days….

 

Roll on Spring 2023…,that’s my attempt at some humorous irony over for now!

Edited February 20, 2022 by Cambrian

[Mark Smithy]

A slight exaggeration Cambrian I think  But, yeah, you're broadly right. These west / north-westerlies never really produce the goods further south. Brilliant for the Scottish ski industry except that with the wind speeds showing up no one will be able to get up the mountain.

p.s. Not sure I would call the weather of the last few days 'uneventful' 

Edited February 20, 2022 by Mark Smithy

[davehsug]

1 hour ago, Cambrian said:

Reverse psychology? Pah, not around here. The uneventful winter mildfest continues with no chance of further snowfall anywhere in the UK or Ireland. 

And you notice that it’s always at day 10 that the next marginal chance of a snow event is shown. I’d love to see one of these even just at day 4 or 5. Fat chance.

6z GFS operational run for 96h…..

 

In any case, it never gets down in to the Midlands or the south, 99h….

Never hangs about anywhere for anything more than a sleety shower, 102h….

You’re  just kidding yourself if you think that there’s any chance it’s going to settle anywhere other than Ben Nevis. Yeah, but you can’t even get decent snowfall in the Scottish mountains these days….

 

Roll on Spring 2023…,that’s my attempt at some humorous irony over for now!

And yet much of Central and Northern England had falling and in places, lying snow just yesterday? There is also the prospect for (probably temporary) snow cover from mid week.

[Scorcher]

3 minutes ago, davehsug said:

And yet much of Central and Northern England had falling and in places, lying snow just yesterday? There is also the prospect for (probably temporary) snow cover from mid week.

Many didn't get any snow in the north yesterday though- apart from some brief sleet we had nothing here.

[minus10]

1 hour ago, Cambrian said:

Reverse psychology? Pah, not around here. The uneventful winter mildfest continues with no chance of further snowfall anywhere in the UK or Ireland. 

And you notice that it’s always at day 10 that the next marginal chance of a snow event is shown. I’d love to see one of these even just at day 4 or 5. Fat chance.

6z GFS operational run for 96h…..

 

In any case, it never gets down in to the Midlands or the south, 99h….

Never hangs about anywhere for anything more than a sleety shower, 102h….

You’re  just kidding yourself if you think that there’s any chance it’s going to settle anywhere other than Ben Nevis. Yeah, but you can’t even get decent snowfall in the Scottish mountains these days….

 

Roll on Spring 2023…,that’s my attempt at some humorous irony over for now!

The gfs 6z run cannot be called mild although it has milder spells that dont last that long. Pm shots and also some cool/cold anticyclonic spells.  Keep going with the humorous irony...

[Mariescb]

22 minutes ago, davehsug said:

And yet much of Central and Northern England had falling and in places, lying snow just yesterday? There is also the prospect for (probably temporary) snow cover from mid week.

That doesn't count in this South East appreciation society thread.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the 6z op…Winter is coming guys… drumroll ..in spring!  

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 6z….Until I say all hope is lost.. it isn’t!!.. …anyway, don’t give up coldies.. …did anyone actually think Spurs would beat one of the best teams in the world yesterday (Man City)…???…answer.. nope! …there’s you’re answer..ok..I need a lie down now!..been drinking!   hiccup!  

 

Edited February 20, 2022 by jon snow

[minus10]

Well according to gfs12z in 12 hours practically the whole of the uk will have at least some snow...

Edited February 20, 2022 by minus10

[tight isobar]

4 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Well according to gfs12z in 12 hours practically the whole of the uk will have at least some snow...

The trend has been there for some time..And only continues with momentum.

[sheikhy]

6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

The trend has been there for some time..And only continues with momentum.

Hows the gfs 12z and ukmo looking in regards to the snow and cold?!!

[Allseasons-Si]

Oh!,...go on then,might as well throw another storm in to the mix of named storms we have had so far

gfs at day 10

got drenched from that squall line that just passed through,...it was insane but fun to watch the Wilko shopping baskets being blown from the entrance towards the back of the shop

 

[tight isobar]

The 12z continues with spring like synoptics..

All jokes aside...into March is looking very stormy...cool =cold ..And perhaps very cold at timesw!!!

Edited February 20, 2022 by tight isobar

[tight isobar]

18 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Hows the gfs 12z and ukmo looking in regards to the snow and cold?!!

Ample snow chances pretty much throughout...moreso for some than others...but momentum gaining for very unsettled cool..with colder interludes likely..