Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February

[Sunny76]

3 hours ago, CreweCold said:

CFS has been rock solid (and I mean rock solid) on its prognosis of HP somewhere just to the S or SE of the UK for months now. Confidently predicting a fairly mild (perhaps even warm later on) March.

General consensus has also been for a fairly benign, dry spring with conditions perhaps deteriorating into summer. Potential for the coming summer to be fairly wet (thundery?) IMO but perhaps not a cool one.

Summer sounds awful already lol. Wet and thundery, no thanks. 

[Mark Smithy]

So the GFS has finally abandoned a Scandi high (18z and now 0z).

I know this may seem like yesterday's battle and a minor point, but for several days the GFS held out against the European models of UKMO and ECM. They had already moved the centre of the high over Germany, not Scandinavia whilst the GFS continued to have the high building over Scandinavia. That makes a MASSIVE difference to the UK. Instead of the potential draw of an easterly or south-easterly with a Scandi high, a high centred over Germany inevitably leads the UK to return to at best southerlies and more normally a return to prevailing south-westerlies. As Jon Snow mentioned, great for Greece but not for the UK.

The European models have now continued the trend with the high sinking away across eastern Europe and a return to zonality.

This has been an extremely poor few days for the GFS.

[SLEETY]

So much for the polar vortex weakening in spring,that doesnt even seem to happen anymore,even the huge block to the East is pushed away  to allow the Atlantic in enough for the winds to swing back to the S or SW where they dominated the winter.

Back to mild windy and rainy weather again,rubbish

[minus10]

1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

So much for the polar vortex weakening in spring,that doesnt even seem to happen anymore,even the huge block to the East is pushed away  to allow the Atlantic in enough for the winds to swing back to the S or SW where they dominated the winter.

Back to mild windy and rainy weather again,rubbish

Exactly....the vortex still seems strong in 10 days time. Surely it has to start weakening soon as the sun is increasing in strength...or are there other factors...

[Cambrian]

It’s been very pleasant and seasonal early March weather here last few days, plenty of blue skies by day and crisp frosty mornings. The 0z ECM operational run is sticking with the idea of the high receding eastward into the Baltic States, letting a mild and rather wet southwesterly in over the UK and Ireland for a few days, driven by a deep Atlantic low. By day 4, parts of the west have seen an inch or two of rain, but it stays largely dry in parts of East Anglia, Kent and the east coast. Temperatures pushing double figures by Wednesday for many parts. 
  

More cyclonic by day 8 where three shallow lows extend from Iceland to Spain, linking through Ireland, sandwiched between a re-emerged Azores high and the very stubborn Eastern European block. All areas see some rain going into next weekend, the values in the west getting topped up, with close to an inch of rain by then in the southeast too.
   

Daytime temperatures often struggling under the rain by that point - midday temperatures for a week today firmly back in single figures, indeed low single figures in parts, with the prospect of chilly nights, mornings, and local frosts remaining. A slow start to spring. 

Edited March 6, 2022 by Cambrian

[damianslaw]

Current settled fine weather set to be cut off quicker than the models were suggesting a couple if days ago. High pressure sinking away to our SE exchanged to the dominant SW flow and its associated cloud and for the west rain and a return to mild conditions. Make the most of next 2-3 days back especially further north and west, thereafter a typical NW-SE split, mild for all, wettesr and dullest further north and west. May become more cyclonic by next weekend meaning rain for all and cooler.

[Froze were the Days]

9 hours ago, lassie23 said:

What i can't believe is that people yet again fell for the old easterly malarky YET AGAIN, it was never going to happen.

Problem is even if the ops get worse too often pre a 'prospect' of an easterly posters rely heavily on means or ensemble members showing them what they want and as we all know these change in a blink of an eye. At a certain range you could see this easterly was going to fail...GFS and ECM ops were pointing away from it.

[lassie23]

1 hour ago, Froze were the Days said:

Problem is even if the ops get worse too often pre a 'prospect' of an easterly posters rely heavily on means or ensemble members showing them what they want and as we all know these change in a blink of an eye. At a certain range you could see this easterly was going to fail...GFS and ECM ops were pointing away from it.

An easterly will hit the target eventually, we will get one in the next ten years lol.

[summer blizzard]

Euro this morning disrupted the trough towards day 9 prompting a pressure build south east.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Gfs 6z op..I’m a little confused.. …wasn’t it supposed to get much colder later in the week?…doh..I’m probably behind the curve.. like Exeter!  

[Frosty.]

My geography isn’t so great..was rubbish at school..but to me the 6z shows a chance of snow in Grease later in the week ahead…? …so…that’s where our cold spell went.. I see it now.. I meant Greece..silly me..that’s where all our cold / snow has gone for the last 4 months…pffffft   

 

 

 

 

Edited March 6, 2022 by jon snow

[PiscesStar]

1 hour ago, jon snow said:

My geography isn’t so great..was rubbish at school..but to me the 6z shows a chance of snow in Grease later in the week ahead…? …so…that’s where our cold spell went.. I see it now.. I meant Greece..silly me..that’s where all our cold / snow has gone for the last 4 months…pffffft   

 

 

 

 

Typical... Shouldn't come. As. Any surprise 

[Frosty.]

13 minutes ago, PiscesStar said:

Typical... Shouldn't come. As. Any surprise 

I forgot to mention Spain and North Africa..I think they have seen more snow than us too?! …anyway, the Gfs 12z op looks positively springlike, not only next week but also mid month..just to rub even more salt in coldies wounds! ?  

[minus10]

21 minutes ago, jon snow said:

I forgot to mention Spain and North Africa..I think they have seen more snow than us too?! …anyway, the Gfs 12z op looks positively springlike, not only next week but also mid month..just to rub even more salt in coldies wounds! ?  

Yes JS. Forget about cold...question will be how warm it can get with this feature moving up from the south...

Spring in full gear if this verifies on the 12z...

[Allseasons-Si]

The 12z gfs was a very mild outlier to say the least from day 9> with the mean trending cooler again but i do hope it comes off (it probably won't) as i am fed up now of this non descript what you call winter...

and just as we enter spring this happens,...white Easter anyone

source:-

 

Climate System Monitoring / TCC

DS.DATA.JMA.GO.JP

---

Climate System Monitoring / TCC

 

[Frosty.]

Sorry coldies but I’ve had enough!, I can’t take it anymore!, all the disappointments…enough is enough!…let’s have this mid March! ️
 

 

[damianslaw]

30 minutes ago, jon snow said:

Sorry coldies but I’ve had enough!, I can’t take it anymore!, all the disappointments…enough is enough!…let’s have this mid March! ️
 

 

Alot of cold air to the NW  ready to slice through those heights though...or may be not. Still feel winter not done with us yet.. we will see a potent draw of arctic air within next 6 weeks, big window of time though.. 

[Frosty.]

There’s some support from the GEFS 12z ensembles for a settled spell into the last third of March, indeed, very springlike!…as for the mean longer term, something of a northwest-southeast split with the south-southeast, on balance, doing quite well! ️ 

[Cambrian]

Similar broad profiles for the 12z GFS and GEM operational runs at day 8, with the Atlantic jet stream getting going but taking a sharp turn south as it gets in over Western Europe. 
GFS 

 

GEM
 

However, the GFS op is then out on its own for pressure as well as temperature around day 9 / 10, showing a high building north over Poland and us on its western flank in a warm southerly flow. 

  

The GFS mean is 20mb lower than the op, much more like the GEM op at day 10, the jet stream powering all the way through to southern Scandinavia. 

GFS mean / GEM op / GEM op jet stream.

  

The day 10 ECM op generally follows suit, giving the chance eventually of something slightly colder over the UK and Ireland, in the form of polar maritime air behind the frontal systems running in from the west.

 

[damianslaw]

ECM direction of travel I feel could well verify, with the strong PV to the NW, will see ejection of cold polar maritime air through second half of March and well into April interspersed with milder ridges and spells of South westerlies.

[minus10]

1 hour ago, Cambrian said:

Similar broad profiles for the 12z GFS and GEM operational runs at day 8, with the Atlantic jet stream getting going but taking a sharp turn south as it gets in over Western Europe. 
GFS 

 

GEM
 

However, the GFS op is then out on its own for pressure as well as temperature around day 9 / 10, showing a high building north over Poland and us on its western flank in a warm southerly flow. 

  

The GFS mean is 20mb lower than the op, much more like the GEM op at day 10, the jet stream powering all the way through to southern Scandinavia. 

GFS mean / GEM op / GEM op jet stream.

  

The day 10 ECM op generally follows suit, giving the chance eventually of something slightly colder over the UK and Ireland, in the form of polar maritime air behind the frontal systems running in from the west.

 

Yes very noticeable on the charts you have posted Cambrian the continuing strength of the vortex still to the nw and the accompanying very cold air . That has to go somewhere and with the warm air to the south now starting to get more prominent there could be some 'interesting' times ahead...

[Alexis]

Why does it have to go anywhere? All things being equal it will just dissipate due to the net heating by the sun.

[SLEETY]

11 hours ago, minus10 said:

Yes very noticeable on the charts you have posted Cambrian the continuing strength of the vortex still to the nw and the accompanying very cold air . That has to go somewhere and with the warm air to the south now starting to get more prominent there could be some 'interesting' times ahead...

The very cold air over Canada still firing up the vortex, parts of Canada 15c below average, never happens in UK! 

[Paul]

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