Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February

[CoxR]

The easterly no longer has much support from the GEFS

[Frosty.]

13 minutes ago, CoxR said:

The easterly no longer has much support from the GEFS

Yeah I can’t disagree with that when you look at the mean in the crucial period …BUT..I’m not ready to call time of death on coldies hopes while there are perturbations like P29!  

 

[Froze were the Days]

3 minutes ago, jon snow said:

Yeah I can’t disagree with that when you look at the mean in the crucial period …BUT..I’m not ready to call time of death on coldies hopes while there are perturbations like P29!  

 

You really are grasping at straws  perturbations clutching never leads to much, ECM operational still gives some hope...but I wouldn't bet your mortgage on it!

[mountain shadow]

28 minutes ago, CoxR said:

The easterly no longer has much support from the GEFS

Easterly guaranteed then.

[Frosty.]

12 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

You really are grasping at straws  perturbations clutching never leads to much, ECM operational still gives some hope...but I wouldn't bet your mortgage on it!

Yeah but no but yeah but no but yeah but…it’s not just individual ensembles, you mentioned the ECM op and I mentioned the ECM mean this morning which showed cold continental inflow.. plus some of the other output from various models have offered hope for coldies too..just keeping it real! and straw clutching / grasping!  

Edited March 3, 2022 by jon snow

[Froze were the Days]

1 minute ago, jon snow said:

Yeah but no but yeah but no but yeah but…it’s not just individual ensembles, you mentioned the ECM op and I mentioned the ECM mean this morning which showed cold continental inflow.. plus some of the other output from various models have offered hope for coldies too..just keeping it real! and straw clutching / grasping!  

Well it is when you cherry pick the best perturbation...that never comes to pass, as long as the ECM shows some hope! As the above post mentions if the GEFS isn't interested in an easterly/continental flow there is hope!  rubbish model!

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,ECM 12z shows the battle nicely between the Atlantic and cold continental air from the high pressure,still twist’s and turns to come.Always difficult for the chart’s to be precise especially with the orientation of the high and how  fast the movement east northeast,one to keep an eye on nothing set in stone yet latter part of weekend should rubber stamp it.

 

[Mariescb]

16 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Evening all,ECM 12z shows the battle nicely between the Atlantic and cold continental air from the high pressure,still twist’s and turns to come.Always difficult for the chart’s to be precise especially with the orientation of the high and how  fast the movement east northeast,one to keep an eye on nothing set in stone yet latter part of weekend should rubber stamp it.

 

Hmm which way will it go, all very interesting. One thing is for sure, the "i told you so" the "never really on board with it" and model bashing posters will be counting down the days.

[minus10]

Yes it looks increasingly likely that the easterly wont reach us and the uk will be stuck in the middle ( with you)

[Anthony Burden]

23 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Yes it looks increasingly likely that the easterly wont reach us and the uk will be stuck in the middle ( with you)

Hi that is a possibility but not a certainty that is why we need to be patient and wait to the latter part of the weekend 

[damianslaw]

Looking most likely any easterly will be a brief tame affair, with the high to the east sinking further south and we pull in a southerly rather wet flow, not overly mild as the airflow mixed in will be from a cold north atlantic source just pulled far south. Not the most inspiring of outlooks rather chilly cloudy weekend, something a bit brighter possibly into next week with frost, and quite cold, before wet and dull. March can be a rather trying month never feels fully Spring until April, its a September equivalent in this respect, often refuses to shrug off the previous season until latter end.

Edited March 3, 2022 by damianslaw

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters T120-T168:

The question is by T168, can the block force the Atlantic low to break up and go under?  Clusters 2 and 4 say may be.  But this is still too far out to call by at least 2 days, so we watch and wait…

And the T192-T240 charts show a higher percentage holding and developing the block, clusters 1 and 2:

Still all to play for in march, which seems the most likely month for wintry weather in the UK these days…

Edited March 3, 2022 by Mike Poole

[Tim Bland]

Ooosh ️  

[CoxR]

Oh my good lord

[minus10]

Yes the story aint over yet...

[Kentspur]

7 hours ago, minus10 said:

Yes the story aint over yet...

Latest 0z GFS shows it but with the usual northward correction a run closer excluding the far SE/South

[sheikhy]

This saga is far from over after viewing ecm and ukmo!!the ecm reinvigorates the scandi high from 192 hours out of no where!

[SLEETY]

Credibility of all the models down the toilet if you ask me, they just can't seem to work out how  much influence the high to the East will have over the UK next week look at the difference between ukmo model this time yesterday and now for example, woeful performance, the other two not much better. 

Always by default in these scenarios they want to push the Atlantic in, reality probably be the opposite 

Edited March 4, 2022 by SLEETY

[stripeyfox]

[SLEETY]

Shame nobody seems interested in what the final outcome will be,when you see the lack of posts, especially considering the lack of any decent looking cold charts during the winter months. 

Fascinating to see how this plays out, night even get deep cold out East to reach us

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 0z….Now this is not the end, it is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning!  

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,ICON the pick of the bunch this morning keeping the continental easterly going for virtually the 180 hrs especially in the south of the U.K. others with different ideas,as stated in my blog yesterday latter part of this weekend should rubber stamp it either way.

[fromey]

And up they go.

didn't think we would see this this winter but there you go. 

[minus10]

The gf 850  ens paint a fairly blocked picture i think but with the orientation not right for an easterly..more sse with mean around zero towards later period of run..

Edited March 4, 2022 by minus10

[sheikhy]

And once again the gfs has a stronger high and further west at 144 hours!!!