Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February

[Community Team]

A fresh thread, ready for the final third of meteorological winter. The outlook doesn't look especially encouraging if cold, snowy weather is your thing, but with our resident high now a bit further away, there is now a more mobile set up. 

Please remember that all posts contain should discussion around the model output in this thread. The winter chat thread is already active, so is the ideal place for non-model related stuff, including ramps and moans:

The guiding principles of everyone's participation in this thread are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family friendly

Please report posts you think break these guidelines, and don't respond to them. If there's someone's posts you'd rather not see, you can have the forum block them for you, using the ignore function. 

Thank you and happy cold hunting!

[minus10]

Seeing the sun this morning makes me wish for spring now and put this 'winter' behind us. Probably premature as still have a nagging feeling that we will 'pay' for this with a cool damp spring. 

Looking at ecm its just incredible the size and extent of HP to the sw, south and se this morning...

Will it be with us until summer ?

You just know, dont you.....

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, minus10 said:

Seeing the sun this morning makes me wish for spring now and put this 'winter' behind us. Probably premature as still have a nagging feeling that we will 'pay' for this with a cool damp spring. 

Looking at ecm its just incredible the size and extent of HP to the sw, south and se this morning...

Will it be with us until summer ?

You just know, dont you.....

Jetstream looks unusually flat.. long terms GFS plays around with height rises to our east.. a theme it has played with a little while. All conjecture but gives some interest at least. 

Edited January 31, 2022 by damianslaw

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z operational was not completely without interest for coldies, there are several albeit relatively short-lived cold incursions with some snow and frost around, especially but not exclusively for the north but I fully understand why it’s so quiet in here as there’s plenty of mild at times too…I for one will be happy  when this feeble excuse for a winter is over and funnily enough, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if March and April are colder than Dec / Jan (wouldn’t be difficult)..the British climate has a warped sense of humour!

 

 

 

[minus10]

Two keys areas of hp...

Ne pacific high and almost b........ high....therein lies the problem  (oh and the self perpetuating vortex of course)...roll on spring...

 

[Battleground Snow]

Finally some eye candy, you just know March will be snowy when the vortex goes through its annual demise.

[phil nw.]

A hint of brief wintry excitement Thurs/Friday as a fairly active cold front moves through.

A brief shot of colder pm air bringing a mix of wintry showers before it all moves away.The best on offer this week it seems with a solid pv to our north and the never ending Azores high lurking to the south. 

[LRD]

Relentless. Groundhog Day. This will go down as one of, if not the, worst (for cold) so-called winter ever. High pressure attracted to the UK like a fly to something brown. But, as I say in another thread, extreme in its own utterly boring way. Purgatory for those of who want winter to be winter or anyone who likes active conditions. A few frames from the GFS 12z 

 

[LRD]

Even at the end of the run. You have to laugh

[Daniel*]

Niña MJO phase 3 in February seems to fit rather well, all hopes now pin on MJO and a behaving vortex we have a wildcard. 

Edited January 31, 2022 by Daniel*

[minus10]

What a monster!!

and no, i'm not talking about the vortex..

[mountain shadow]

22 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Niña MJO phase 3 in February seems to fit rather well, all hopes now pin on MJO and a behaving vortex we have a wildcard. 

Why would MJO 3 phase work for us when January's phase 7 didn't?

Like most teleconnections now, the MJO means nothing in the face of the PV.

[Staffmoorlands]

ECM 240 suggests more high pressure 

 

[mb018538]

44 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

ECM 240 suggests more high pressure 

 

High pressure cells arriving in from the west like our usual low pressure train! Very bizarre…

[Don]

Any news on tonight's EC46?  Mind you these updates have been pretty predictable recently!

[Cold Winter Night]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

Any news on tonight's EC46?  Mind you these updates have been pretty predictable recently!

It begins with 'H' and ends with 'igh pressure'

It really is quite something this winter, unique in its own way.

Tonight's 264h-360h clusters end the 15 day period (mid February) with this:

And the further extended EC46 ends with this into mid March:

So nothing really changes, according to this round of modelling.

[ANYWEATHER]

Ecm.....classic Diurnal temperatures Warm days Cold nights....

[fromey]

1 hour ago, Cold Winter Night said:

It begins with 'H' and ends with 'igh pressure'

It really is quite something this winter, unique in its own way.

Tonight's 264h-360h clusters end the 15 day period (mid February) with this:

And the further extended EC46 ends with this into mid March:

So nothing really changes, according to this round of modelling.

I’m sorry but the EC 46 is as much use as a chocolate tea pot this winter!  It’s been a poor performer.

i suspect this winter will go down as poor but unusual as it had all the signs of being a good one, no one saw the high pressure hanging around for as long as it did, for me winter ended on the 31st December when temps  hit 15c. 
i think there’s a lot to learn from this winter and I will be learning a lot,l! 

[minus10]

Even by Icelands standards its going to get a battering from that storm according to gfs 18z....

[Cold Winter Night]

2 hours ago, fromey said:

I’m sorry but the EC 46 is as much use as a chocolate tea pot this winter!  It’s been a poor performer.

i suspect this winter will go down as poor but unusual as it had all the signs of being a good one, no one saw the high pressure hanging around for as long as it did, for me winter ended on the 31st December when temps  hit 15c. 
i think there’s a lot to learn from this winter and I will be learning a lot,l! 

I've been saying that too. I don't really take EC46 very seriously.

EC46 has had some features right, hemispherically, but in the Atlantic-European sector, right where it matters for us, it has been a disaster.
Seasonal models haven't fared any better tbh.

The upside of that: Winter's not over yet, maybe we can't be too sure about current forecasts either, so February/March could turn out better than we all fear. Who knows? Time will tell.

[mb018538]

A slightly more unsettled ECM 00z run than previous - though this isn't really supported by the ensemble clusters, which still favour high pressure to be much more dominant at day 10.



A similar story for the day GFS, where the OP run today sits below the ensemble mean:




A NW/SE rainfall bias is likely to develop, with western hills looking particularly wet. Meanwhile, parts of the E/SE continuing to look very dry, with some areas not seeing much in the way of rain at all. ECM and GFS take on this below:

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,will February turn out mild / very mild due to stubborn Azores high drifting around to our south,looking at the long term charts that looks the form horse.Still always a chance that things can change so never say die.

[Mike Poole]

8 hours ago, Cold Winter Night said:

I've been saying that too. I don't really take EC46 very seriously.

EC46 has had some features right, hemispherically, but in the Atlantic-European sector, right where it matters for us, it has been a disaster.
Seasonal models haven't fared any better tbh.

The upside of that: Winter's not over yet, maybe we can't be too sure about current forecasts either, so February/March could turn out better than we all fear. Who knows? Time will tell.

Yes, agree re the seasonal models, some people have said they got it right because we got no cold.  No. They got it wrong and we happened to get no cold anyway.  No sign of this huge UK high on any of them that I remember looking at before December.  

[frosty ground]

15 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Why would MJO 3 phase work for us when January's phase 7 didn't?

Like most teleconnections now, the MJO means nothing in the face of the PV.

I don’t know much about the MJO but wouldn’t the fact it’s in a certain phase indicate that the PV will move accordingly? 

[SLEETY]

Certainly true the statement that the NH profile at end of December will mostly dictate the rest of the Winter.

Probably get the perfect winter pressure patterns in April and May again,like last year.

This current pattern looks locked in till at least 2nd week of Feb.