Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February

[Staffmoorlands]

12 hours ago, fromey said:

I’m sorry but the EC 46 is as much use as a chocolate tea pot this winter!  It’s been a poor performer.

 

EC46 has shown high pressure dominating this winter so I would say it hasn't done too badly

[Stu_London]

Sadly - no sign of a pattern change in the latest suites.

Problem with MLB and a strong vortex is that it can only really hang around (January) or sink (February), leaving us to pick up the scraps from occasional polar maritime incursions. 

It's not quite game over yet, but increasingly likely that large swathes of the country, particular midlands southwards will see the winter months with no lying snow and in a lot of cases, no falling snow. 

Edited February 1, 2022 by Stu_London

[TwisterGirl81]

Anyone know here I can find the map that shows how much rainfall has fallen in each park of the uk for January please?  Netweather usually do one but I can't find it, ta

 

It's been incredibly dry in the south for several weeks (Devon)

Edited February 1, 2022 by TwisterGirl81

[Bill4321]

45 minutes ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

Anyone know here I can find the map that shows how much rainfall has fallen in each park of the uk for January please?  Netweather usually do one but I can't find it, ta

 

It's been incredibly dry in the south for several weeks (Devon)

I think that the meto maps linked below should give you what you want. The January map isn't available yet though.

UK actual and anomaly maps

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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Maps of climate variables for previous months, seasons and years

 

[TwisterGirl81]

26 minutes ago, Bill4321 said:

I think that the meto maps linked below should give you what you want. The January map isn't available yet though.

UK actual and anomaly maps

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Maps of climate variables for previous months, seasons and years

 

Thanks so much and it does have january's totals on there too....very very dry so far this winter for the south

Edited February 1, 2022 by TwisterGirl81

[swilliam]

38 minutes ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

Thanks so much and it does have january's totals on there too....very very dry so far this winter for the south

December was pretty much on average though.

[TwisterGirl81]

2 hours ago, swilliam said:

December was pretty much on average though.

November was very dry, pretty much a dry winter for the south especially, I hope we don't pay for it in spring/summer

[swilliam]

could be some records broken if this came off. Looks like an extra tropical hurricane with 130km/hr winds separated by stillness in few km

Probably just a GFS special of course.

 

[BlackburnChris]

46 minutes ago, swilliam said:

could be some records broken if this came off. Looks like an extra tropical hurricane with 130km/hr winds separated by stillness in few km

Probably just a GFS special of course.

 

And its only at day 6... 

[Cambrian]

The 12z GFS operational run is not too bad, and certainly not without interest for some lively February weather. It has a crop of chillier polar maritime blasts with -4 to -8 uppers at day 3, day 7, day 9, day 11/12 and day 15/16. The run looks about average overall for temperatures, but with regular 1-2 day periods of colder blasts with potential for some wintry weather. 

    

Cracking looking cold front day 8/9 with for afters, some snow on the hills and more generally in the north.

  

A chunk of the PV gets very close to us at day 10, advancing into cold air, with colder air tucked in behind it as well, just a slither of a warm sector, so this would be very transient. If there on future runs, it looks like the kind of development that could fill in even more with colder uppers as the time approaches and might well be interesting. 
 

[Battleground Snow]

Gem day 10 not bad, certainly no raging positive AO on that chart.

[damianslaw]

We are not far off quite a cold pattern albeit north Atlantic cold from off Canadian arctic,its just the azores high refuses to relinquish its grip. Nudge it a bit further south and we'd see less modification of the cold spilling out of the USA seaboard. Alas tropical maritime air is getting in the mix and cutting off what would otherwise be a cold supply.

No obvious signal for the azores high to move away, fleeting polar maritime blasts into northern parts looks the order of the day, staying predominantly mild further south and still preety dry. 

[Staffmoorlands]

UKMO is 6 days of mild and 1 day of cold. Not the best

 

[Cuban Zebra]

For what it’s worth I think the models are starting to pick up in a few tentative signals of the raging PV moving/ splitting up and the relentless train of high pressures losing their grip!

In a day or 2 the eye candy charts will appear and we’ll all be up that garden path again!

[SLEETY]

We will pay for this dry winter,come spring.

Watch the Azores high move away as Spring arrives,and be replaced by low pressure and lots of rain,and snow hopefully with the jet diving South.

Watch for big changes in ouput in around 2 weeks time,onwards

[Tim Bland]

16 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Gem day 10 not bad, certainly no raging positive AO on that chart.

Problem is there’s only 2 weeks left of winter after that

[Mike Poole]

23 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

We will pay for this dry winter,come spring.

Watch the Azores high move away as Spring arrives,and be replaced by low pressure and lots of rain,and snow hopefully with the jet diving South.

Watch for big changes in ouput in around 2 weeks time,onwards

I for one don’t think so.  

I don’t buy the argument this year that high lat blocking cold scenarios will abound once we’re past the end of February.  This can happen, and it is quite frustrating when it does, but on those years when it does, a late winter SSW is often the cause, too late to give a decent end to winter, so it just ruins spring.  

There is no sign for any SSW, so the strat vortex will just run down naturally towards the final warming, so won’t upset the applecart - an applecart that as far as the trop regime is concerned is absolutely not dominated by low pressure systems rolling off the Atlantic - there continues to be little off the Atlantic driving our weather for well over a year now, reason unknown, but just expecting that to change without any good reason for a driver for change is likely to prove a wrong assumption in my view.  

My prediction is for a benign spring leading to a hot early summer.

ECM, meanwhile, is suggesting highish pressure remaining T216 but looks a messy picture.

[Staffmoorlands]

ECM is again quite unsettled. Probably will not verify. Here is day 10. I guess at least it will be mild

[LRD]

22 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I for one don’t think so.  

I don’t buy the argument this year that high lat blocking cold scenarios will abound once we’re past the end of February.  This can happen, and it is quite frustrating when it does, but on those years when it does, a late winter SSW is often the cause, too late to give a decent end to winter, so it just ruins spring.  

There is no sign for any SSW, so the strat vortex will just run down naturally towards the final warming, so won’t upset the applecart - an applecart that as far as the trop regime is concerned is absolutely not dominated by low pressure systems rolling off the Atlantic - there continues to be little off the Atlantic driving our weather for well over a year now, reason unknown, but just expecting that to change without any good reason for a driver for change is likely to prove a wrong assumption in my view.  

My prediction is for a benign spring leading to a hot early summer.

ECM, meanwhile, is suggesting highish pressure remaining T216 but looks a messy picture.

Yes agreed

Didn't we have ridiculously high temps in Feb 2020 which then led to a warm, sunny spring? Feb 2019 also had a warm spell and spring and summer was warm that year too. Last year was the first genuinely cold spring in absolutely years. I mean it might happen again but there are no signs of that in any longer term model that I've seen (forgetting the CFS of course)

Shorter term, the general dryness just rolls on...

 

Edited February 1, 2022 by LRD

[damianslaw]

25 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I for one don’t think so.  

I don’t buy the argument this year that high lat blocking cold scenarios will abound once we’re past the end of February.  This can happen, and it is quite frustrating when it does, but on those years when it does, a late winter SSW is often the cause, too late to give a decent end to winter, so it just ruins spring.  

There is no sign for any SSW, so the strat vortex will just run down naturally towards the final warming, so won’t upset the applecart - an applecart that as far as the trop regime is concerned is absolutely not dominated by low pressure systems rolling off the Atlantic - there continues to be little off the Atlantic driving our weather for well over a year now, reason unknown, but just expecting that to change without any good reason for a driver for change is likely to prove a wrong assumption in my view.  

My prediction is for a benign spring leading to a hot early summer.

ECM, meanwhile, is suggesting highish pressure remaining T216 but looks a messy picture.

The quiet Atlantic has been a notable feature since December 2020. Mind we've had lengthy periods with a quiet Atlantic before. Mar 95 to Mar 97, Feb 05 to Aug 06, 2010-11. What is interesting is how these dry periods suddenly came to a halt with then very wet periods following on. 

[LRD]

Just now, damianslaw said:

The quiet Atlantic has been a notable feature since December 2020. Mind we've had lengthy periods with a quiet Atlantic before. Mar 95 to Mar 97, Feb 05 to Aug 06, 2010-11. What is interesting is how these dry periods suddenly came to a halt with then very wet periods following on. 

As long as the dry now holds on until September... with the exception of some huge electrical storms from May to August. It's shaping up to be similar to what 1975-76 was like (by all accounts) although summer wasn't great last year like 1975 was. Perhaps we'll get a 1976 summer again. 2018 was very close to it

[damianslaw]

ECM day 8 shows the story of the winter.. any point where cold looks like it might invade from the north something stops it. This time a developing low at the base of the Atlantic trough along the jetstream. Azores high inflated north again.. cold spills into mid Atlantic..

[January Snowstorm]

For the beady eyed among us, the charts have a slightly better look to them this evening.  Very tentative signs that polar northwesterlys  could gain frequency come mid month!! 

[damianslaw]

3 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

For the beady eyed among us, the charts have a slightly better look to them this evening.  Very tentative signs that polar northwesterlys  could gain frequency come mid month!! 

Yes I was saying this a week or so ago.. but alas as the reliable counted down the polar maritime airflow was cut to a one day affair for the north only on the 4th Feb. What is remarkable is the stubbornness of the azores high against such a deep pool of cold air and strong PV to our NW. In time I expect the PV and cold air spill out will edge the azores high away and we will be exposed to more of a NW airflow but will take time..

Edited February 1, 2022 by damianslaw

[chris55]

Slightly unusual 12z ECM with the low moving towards the Azores, and the ridge to the north. Scotland in the colder air.