Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February

[stodge]

Evening all

"The Hunt for Cold" - not too difficult. There's plenty here:

First the 850s, then the 2m temperatures ad finally the 500s.

That's a serious storm...

Note what the temperature contrast does to the jet:

It's all a long way off but symptomatic of the second half of our winter this season.

[damianslaw]

18 minutes ago, stodge said:

Evening all

"The Hunt for Cold" - not too difficult. There's plenty here:

First the 850s, then the 2m temperatures ad finally the 500s.

That's a serious storm...

Note what the temperature contrast does to the jet:

It's all a long way off but symptomatic of the second half of our winter this season.

The classic ridge over NE Pacific, trough into west USA and big low over NE Canada fuelling the jet.. a common synoptic all our winters since 2012-13. 

[stodge]

5 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

The classic ridge over NE Pacific, trough into west USA and big low over NE Canada fuelling the jet.. a common synoptic all our winters since 2012-13. 

Yes so are you saying El Nino, La Nina, MJO states, all the rest of it, none of that matters?

I suspect that synoptic has been present for hundreds of years - the funnel of Arctic air south and south east into the interior of the United States has existed for ever I suspect - we know why it happens with the PV over NE Canada circulating the cold air and the ridge responding to the far west - that might also explain the quasi permanent drought over the south western USA including California.

As the PV displaces westward briefly, we get a hint of amplification but as that engages with the warmer air from the Gulf of Mexico, it powers up storm systems (including tornadoes) and a strong jet which fires into the Atlantic and sweeps that weather towards Europe.

I suspect the power of that jet has prevented our MLB moving further north and west and giving us a more "continental" style dry and cold winter. Presumably warmer water and in turn warmer air to the south will continue to intensify that gradient and create explosive cyclogenesis until the cold air spiral slows further into spring.

[legritter]

Evening gang, later stages of tonights ECM is fueling up my imagination. So will tomorrow bring the prospect of a killer Blow to our friend the magnetic snow cold hating big blob of a high pressure thats been annoying us for too long now .I am still convinced that we will see wintry charts ,some amazing even phenomenal low pressure systems being modelled for the north Atlantic, so an uptick for some changes ,sit back gang ,feet up ,sausage baps and STELLA all round, gfs soon ,ecm only 10 hrs away , cheers gang .. 

 

 

[DavidS]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

The classic ridge over NE Pacific, trough into west USA and big low over NE Canada fuelling the jet.. a common synoptic all our winters since 2012-13. 

With the SST anomalies in the Gulf of Alaska, cooling off somewhat……..

…….it seemed there was the possibility that the NE Pacific ridge would back off, but it remains as does the familiar pattern you mention.

 

Edited February 1, 2022 by DavidS

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

What a disappointing winter this has been so far! Give me a plume event over this hopeless search for cold any day of the week. That PV has been stuck in the wrong place once again this winter (Greenland as usual). No doubt we will see a replacement of it with a huge high come May.. 

[Battleground Snow]

Day 10 chase.... Gem and ecm not a million miles from this setup

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, DavidS said:

With the SST anomalies in the Gulf of Alaska, cooling off somewhat……..

…….it seemed there was the possibility that the NE Pacific ridge would back off, but it remains as does the familiar pattern you mention.

 

Yes bang goes the theory cold SSTs in said region reduce chance of big ridge. Will be interesting to extrapolate the key factors behind the synoptics of this winter.. someone mentioned la Nina ocean state combined with El Nino atmosphere countering each other out... look also at the continuation of the warm anomalies throughout the whole Atlantic. None of the cold in the arctic has penetrates into north Atlantic. Different to many a recent winter which has seen cold blobs in Atlantic. I wonder if the warm SSTs have aided the robustness of azores high and fenced off the Atlantic attack.. and a stormy SW airstream onslaught.. we've been spared that this year thankfully!

Edited February 1, 2022 by damianslaw

[carinthian]

GFS showing a pattern change at day 10 ?

C

[carinthian]

38 minutes ago, carinthian said:

GFS showing a pattern change at day 10 ?

C

Some support from GEM for the latest GFS op and control to position that low with a more favouable European trough formation over the nearby continent  and keeping much of the British Isles in a colder air mass at day 10. However, ECM shows the low development in Mid Atlantic to be a bit more progressive initially with advection of milder air into the British Isles. However, a bit more interest in the charts this morning for you guys in the medium term developments.

C

Edited February 2, 2022 by carinthian

[ANYWEATHER]

54 minutes ago, carinthian said:

GFS showing a pattern change at day 10 ?

C

Ecm and gfs would eventually deliver the cold goods, but it's always at day ten! But nontheless interesting at day ten, compared to the last days of uninteresting output even in FI! Will Winter have a Sting in its tail?!  Ready for a little bit of weather action as this as been the most uninteresting Winter for many a year, and although the same record has been playing over and over again, sooner or later there has to be a new song.....it's not if ......but when!

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,GFS on and off with their northern blocking in fantasy island nice to see it but still unlikely to happen,ECM in contrast has a large aggressive low pressure blowing away the Azores high and bringing possibly very mild weather.Not really worth taking much notice of either GFS or ECM at that range but still it is shown and will be watched.

[IDO]

Looking on Twitter to see if there is likely a pattern change from the dominant Alaskan Ridge of Jan, and the consensus is that it is unsure whether that will move away or just be a temporary blip, as the GFS op suggests; D8-16:

With that feature and the raging tPV, I feel any colder spells will be the usual 1-2 days, as highs and lows flirt with the UK in  a mobile pattern. We have one of those short colder flows Fri-Sat:

London 0Z> 

The mean 850s then flatline around average until the end of the run. The GFS op, def one of the coldest out in FI and although not an outlier, seems low risk for the moment. 

No confidence in a pattern change yet and a case of more runs needed, so as we were probably the call for this run.

[Blessed Weather]

12 hours ago, damianslaw said:

The classic ridge over NE Pacific, trough into west USA and big low over NE Canada fuelling the jet.. a common synoptic all our winters since 2012-13. 

 

12 hours ago, stodge said:

Yes so are you saying El Nino, La Nina, MJO states, all the rest of it, none of that matters?

I suspect that synoptic has been present for hundreds of years - the funnel of Arctic air south and south east into the interior of the United States has existed for ever I suspect....... (SNIPPED)

We seem to have an almost semi-permanent negative East Pacific Oscillation during this winter. The following diagram illustrates a -EPO and impact for the North Americas:

Diagram and more info at the following links:
Source: https://www.dtn.com/what-is-the-eastern-pacific-oscillation/
Further reading: https://www.worldclimateservice.com/2021/09/23/eastern-pacific-oscillation/

Indeed, we seem to have been in a predominantly negative pattern for the last couple of years:

Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/ep_ts.shtml

And we are stuck with it for the foreseeable with the GFS 500hPa anomaly forecasts showing the downstream impact from the ensuing pattern of alternating high and low pressure. Note the -EPO is shown to be strengthening with a "black hole" anomaly by the 16th:

2nd  9th  16th

And the causes and impacts? Clearly the UK impacted by the downstream pattern, but the cause is much harder to pin down because as with many other drivers, there is a complex relationship with other teleconnections. In the case of the sub-seasonal EPO (i.e. can switch states a number of times a season) there are strong relationships with the wider, longer lasting Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) which is currently negative, the ENSO state and the tropical MJO. As the Met Office themselves say about the PDO:

"The cause of changes in the PDO has yet to be identified and it may even be due to a combination of factors including long-lasting fingerprints of El Nino and La Nina events in the tropical Pacific Ocean; changes in atmospheric pressure the northern Pacific; the impact of industrial pollution; and natural variability." https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/oceans/pacific-decadal-oscillation

Edited February 2, 2022 by Blessed Weather
Clarified impact of EPO.

[chris55]

That high pressure cell moving out of east Canada around day 7 hinting at a pattern ‘disturbance’ of sorts. Been showing on ecm and gfs for a few days in different forms. Forcing lows south.
 

Something to watch.

[mushymanrob]

There is no pattern change on these charts before mid-month. Mild southwesterlies, pretty dry in the South with the Atlantic systems being steered to our near North so not impacting too much on the UK.
Theres NO route to cold on these charts.

 

[damianslaw]

47 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

There is no pattern change on these charts before mid-month. Mild southwesterlies, pretty dry in the South with the Atlantic systems being steered to our near North so not impacting too much on the UK.
Theres NO route to cold on these charts.

 

Just change the colours red lines become green and green red and that will do! As you say we have all the ingredients for minimal cold at the moment. Need to see pressure put on the PV.. but looks a slow protracted affair. 

[legritter]

Hi gang  ,certainly quiet on here today .Atlantic stiring up in further outlook, we need a powerful area of low pressure to move to our east so lets hope tonights Runs look in our favour. Of course a nice direct Arctic blast would be good,  at least its only very early February, take care all ,yes sausage baps are on the menu today ,cheers .

[TSNWK]

2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

There is no pattern change on these charts before mid-month. Mild southwesterlies, pretty dry in the South with the Atlantic systems being steered to our near North so not impacting too much on the UK.
Theres NO route to cold on these charts.

 

[mushymanrob]

8 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Yep... i have, in regards to a proper wintry spell. The pattern we have now is not going anywhere fast, and is VERY similar to just 2 years ago. Like i posted previously, late wintry spells in March and April mostly come after a SSW, no SSW this year IMHO reduces the possibility of us getting any proper cold.
We can and will get short lived blasts of PM air, like on Friday. We might even pick up a dry cold Easterly, they seemed to be common in the 70's. Or an anticyclone sitting on top of us giving sharp frosty nights but sunny mild days - like March 1996.

But in terms of a widespread, snowy, wintry spell of more than 3 days? - nah...

[johnholmes]

When winter, in terms of cold and snow, as it will(!), appears there will be hardly anyone left. Just how some of you have watched every 3 hourly output from GFSx4 daily and others since November I have no idea. Nor for that matter any understanding of why you do it, especially once beyond the usual' forecasting ability anywhere,depending on the situation, from 5 out to 10 days.

Good luck all of you. Like m posted earlier little indication in the next 2 weeks of your prayers being answered other than the occasional 24-48 hour snap, and that more likely to affect the northern half of the UK.

 

[mushymanrob]

14 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

When winter, in terms of cold and snow, as it will(!), appears ............... there will be hardly anyone left. Just how some of you have watched every 3 hourly output from GFSx4 daily and others since November I have no idea. Nor for that matter any understanding of why you do it, especially once beyond the usual' forecasting ability anywhere,depending on the situation, from 5 out to 10 days.

Good luck all of you. Like m posted earlier little indication in the next 2 weeks of your prayers being answered other than the occasional 24-48 hour snap, and that more likely to affect the northern half of the UK.

 

Are you ramping John?... lol.. Ok, theres no black and white in weather forecasting imho, just degrees of probability. Going off experience (which is less than yours) 9/10 there will be nowt other than transient spells. All the late snowy spells that i can remember off the top of my head - 68, 70, 79, 81, 13, 18, were all preceded by a SSW. But im not including cold anticyclonic and frosty in that... anyway, if im wrong, im wrong! ...lol

 

Edited February 2, 2022 by mushymanrob

[TURNED OUT NICE AGAIN]

Got a funny feeling we may be looking at conditions like this come March / April.....just a hunch!

Edited February 2, 2022 by TURNED OUT NICE AGAIN

[Johnp]

Starting to look a bit more amplified post day 7 now on Icon, UKMO and GFS 12z runs. 
Hopefully things are on the turn for coldies. 

[Battleground Snow]

Day 10 and look at depth of cold over NE USA, vortex finally on the move if this is correct.