Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February

[Blessed Weather]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

A quick question for the learned on here:

I'm looking at the front moving in from the Atlantic right now and it has heavy rain across Western Scotland extending down to Western Ireland, however, from the North coast of Donegal down to Galway the rain isn't showing along the frontal boundary.

What would cause this?

Thanks in advance.

(SNIPPED)

 

29 minutes ago, Polar. said:

It was showing on the met office radar. Must be an issue with netweather radar for that area.

The gap also showing on the Meteociel radar and from the ragged edges of the rain gap it's not the failure of a particular radar in that area. So not a problem with the Netweather radar feed either.

Source: https://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/radar2.php?region=uk&mode=1

The only thing I can suggest is that it may be caused by a wave like disturbance on the cold front:

Numerical Study of Precipitation Core-Gap Structure along Cold Fronts
The alongfront variability in precipitation is attributed to the formation of a wavelike disturbance just above the leading edge of the cold front. The wave phase lines are oriented nearly perpendicular to the direction of mean vertical shear, with enhanced (suppressed) precipitation occurring at the wave updrafts (downdrafts).
Source: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/atsc/64/7/jas3987.1.xml

Edited February 3, 2022 by Blessed Weather

[chris55]

Some unusually cold air crossing the North Atlantic associated with the high exiting North America. The cold air over the U.K. has actually come from the west at day 7. If only we could get some more amplification as the ridge moves in.

[mb018538]

35 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

No. It's showing on the Met Office radar too, the whole of Northern Ireland is missing rain.

Probably radar drop out in that area

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Probably radar drop out in that area

Well, it's lashing down here, so definitely a widespread radar issue 

[Man With Beard]

Oh wow - I'm so excited today ... no, not because of a snowstorm incoming, but because I've just realized UKMO on Meteociel now goes out to T168, and the ECM is viewable in 3 hour intervals. I feel like it's Christmas!! (Have I've been missing this for weeks?)

[chris55]

33 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Oh wow - I'm so excited today ... no, not because of a snowstorm incoming, but because I've just realized UKMO on Meteociel now goes out to T168, and the ECM is viewable in 3 hour intervals. I feel like it's Christmas!! (Have I've been missing this for weeks?)

Hey MWB where are you getting that 168 UKMO on Meteo? Mine only goes to 144.

[Cold Winter Night]

47 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Oh wow - I'm so excited today ... no, not because of a snowstorm incoming, but because I've just realized UKMO on Meteociel now goes out to T168, and the ECM is viewable in 3 hour intervals. I feel like it's Christmas!! (Have I've been missing this for weeks?)

Yes, it's been there for weeks. At least, UKMO 168h.

Last week they added ECM in 3 hour intervals, plus the EPS ensemble members, but those still have some issues.

15 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Hey MWB where are you getting that 168 UKMO on Meteo? Mine only goes to 144.

Click on that "UKMO 0.1 Europe/NH" button, and it extends to 168h.

[Gowon]

Hopefully the JMA's solution is correct as that would most likely bring a decent spell of wintry weather?

Edited February 3, 2022 by D.V.R

[Nick F]

2 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Oh wow - I'm so excited today ... no, not because of a snowstorm incoming, but because I've just realized UKMO on Meteociel now goes out to T168, and the ECM is viewable in 3 hour intervals. I feel like it's Christmas!! (Have I've been missing this for weeks?)

Can't stand the flat earth mercator map projection of Europe on meteociel where areas towards the pole, such as Greenland and northern Scandinavia appear disproportionately large compared to areas further south towards the equator. Prefer to use Netweather or wetterzentrale as it has the more accurate spherical globe shape map projection for Europe where Greenland is the right size.

Edited February 3, 2022 by Nick F

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, chris55 said:

Some unusually cold air crossing the North Atlantic associated with the high exiting North America. The cold air over the U.K. has actually come from the west at day 7. If only we could get some more amplification as the ridge moves in.

Yes, there is significant cold air to our NW, a shunt of the jet a little further south and the high to our south at the same time, and whilst it will undergo modification we could tap into the magical -10 line in the north at least.

[Man With Beard]

46 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Can't stand the flat earth mercator map projection of Europe on meteociel where areas towards the pole, such as Greenland and northern Scandinavia appear disproportionately large compared to areas further south towards the equator. Prefer to use Netweather or wetterzentrale as it has the more accurate spherical globe shape map projection for Europe where Greenland is the right size.

Fair enough. Habit of a lifetime! (and it really does feel like a lifetime) I just find it very easy to use and very clear. 

[Paul]

Little update to the ECMWF on Netweather to share with you tonight. It now runs from 00 hours to 240 in 3/6 hour slots rather than just from 24 to 240 in 24 hour slots. 

Also, there'll be a bunch of new chart types coming this month on there:

ECMWF Weather Charts - Netweather.tv

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

---

Weather charts from the ECMWF model - updated twice daily

We'll also be adding numerous new models to the site this month including Mogreps, Met Office global, Hirlam, Arome and Arpege. 

[Man With Beard]

I may have a look at that @Paul, thanks! In the meantime I'm having fun with the ECM ensembles mean on Meteociel, now put to D15!

The fun stops there though...the flattest chart you'll ever see

 

 

[Man With Beard]

This will be useful. ECM ensembles now represented the same way as GFS ensembles out to D15. Will be much better for comparisons. Looks a chilly couple of days possible around D8.

 

[Mike Poole]

18 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I may have a look at that @Paul, thanks! In the meantime I'm having fun with the ECM ensembles mean on Meteociel, now put to D15!

The fun stops there though...the flattest chart you'll ever see

 

 

Yes, we have a lot more charts from UKMO and ECM across the various chart providers in recent weeks.  So thanks are due to those weather centres for providing the data.  

It strikes me that should ever a proper cold spell loom on the horizon, we will have so much more at our disposal to discuss what the two best models make of it.  UKMO has T168 but also 12 hr time intervals are so helpful especially when comparing 0z and 12z runs. ECM 3hr is even better, who on here has not made a fool of themselves at some point as the ECM 12z rolls out trying to guess the next chart 24 hrs away? 

ECM ensembles in the detail we have already for GFS.  Great.  All we need now is some decent winter weather to bring these charts to bear on, sadly might be next year now.

Finally, now having been following the models for a number of years, I do find people get quite territorial about which chart provider they prefer! As you will know from my posts, I am a staunch Meteociel fan - I just like the format and the use of the full range of loud colours!  And how extensive the range of models and charts is.  But, to @Nick F point above, I would always argue that in winter, people would be advised to use the NH view and not the Europe one.

 

[Mike Poole]

And while we are talking about new model output, Copernicus C3S seasonal model output from all the main providers is now on Meteociel, so giving a taste of summer, here’s the Z500 anomalies for June from the January runs:

All looking good in the hood at this stage (I think it might be a hot one - more nearer the time!).  

[Nick F]

20 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

But, to @Nick F point above, I would always argue that in winter, people would be advised to use the NH view and not the Europe one.

 

Oh I always use both NH for the bigger picture of teleconnections and Europe view for more detail. But don't understand why people like the flat earth European projection of meteociel with the oversized Greenland and loud colours with too much blue and purple, looks like a child has painted it . But each to their own. 

Nice to see Netweather expanding their range of different model charts too, we've come a long way with the data now at hand compared to the early days of the Netweather forum - back in the early / mid 00s, when EC only went to T+168 freely available and with no T850s. Only 5 years or so ago you could only see EC precipitation charts for the UK for free in small scale in the corner of a chart centred on Iceland from the Icelandic weather service. Then came wxcharts showing them for free for the UK, then more recently EC site itself started showing a comprehensive range of charts for free, albeit not for just the UK. Still the 2x daily extended EC is behind a paywall. But maybe this will become free eventually.

Edited February 3, 2022 by Nick F

[Battleground Snow]

Pretty cold next week with wintery showers around for some, according to the 18z GFS...

A range of charts attached

[Don]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

And while we are talking about new model output, Copernicus C3S seasonal model output from all the main providers is now on Meteociel, so giving a taste of summer, here’s the Z500 anomalies for June from the January runs:All looking good in the hood at this stage (I think it might be a hot one - more nearer the time!).  

I hope not but more than likely!  However, nice to have such a range of long range data available now.

[SLEETY]

Signs of change on gfs tonight, with much colder weather with wintry showers possibly on the way, could it be correct in the long - range for once! 

Edited February 4, 2022 by SLEETY

[PiscesStar]

4 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Signs of change on gfs tonight, with much colder weather with wintry showers possibly on the way, could it be correct in the long - range for once! 

Yes GFS is showing nirvana charts in the outer reaches of the Gamma Quadrant ONCE AGAIN!

[mb018538]

Certainly much more unsettled output from the GFS and GEM as we go into February on this morning's output.
Very much at odds with last nights ECM update for the next 2 weeks out to the 21st Feb, which show higher pressure remaining dominant:

Edited February 4, 2022 by mb018538

[FetchCB]

9 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

And while we are talking about new model output, Copernicus C3S seasonal model output from all the main providers is now on Meteociel, so giving a taste of summer, here’s the Z500 anomalies for June from the January runs:

All looking good in the hood at this stage (I think it might be a hot one - more nearer the time!).  

Assuming this is an ECM data set? 

If so I wonder how much of the ECM's tendency to overstate longevity of High Pressure is replicated?

EDIT : seems its an amalgamation 

 

Seasonal forecasts | Copernicus

CLIMATE.COPERNICUS.EU

 

Edited February 4, 2022 by FetchCB
Included link to answer own question

[Nick F]

Chalk and cheese 00z GFS and EC at day 8 at the surface, the former has low pressure moving in from the west, the latter has high pressure moving in from the west.

One thing in common though is the unrelenting low heights / TPV stretching from NE Canada across Greenland to Scandinavia. No sign of that breaking up anytime soon, so little chance of HLB for the first half to two/thirds of Feb.

[Ali1977]

Well I confirm the rain is turning to snow at my location, for only the 3rd time this winter which is pretty poor!!