Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February

[mb018538]

25 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

After looking at this mornings runs if anything it's going the wrong way!

After a brief cold ridge both ECM and GFS bring in a strong zonal flow from Day 8 with intense high pressure over Iberia and deep lows around Iceland, this produces an ever increasing positive NAO which goes off the charts by the middle of next week.

Some cold zonality like yesterday is possible but the emphasis will be on mild and in increasingly unsettled weather if all this verifies.

I would imagine it will be March now before the PV weakens and to be honest winter 2022 is dead in the water.

Andy

Latest data has the PV staying miles above average well into March. Seeing upper zonal winds this strong so late into Feb is very unusual, and in the top very top end of events. Not what you really want to  be seeing if you want some later winter cold, especially now they have linked up.

[mushymanrob]

Low pressure looks set to take control after next weekend .
This is looking stormy at times, cool, very mobile, wetter than of late, with heavy snow showers across northern areas at times. Its looking very lively.

[Lampostwatcher]

Gfs 6z potent northerly setting up in fi

[SLEETY]

Yes expect some decent fl charts now as we head towards the end of winter, probably verify too, as spring arrives!! 

[minus10]

Is this another trend that will be dropped or downgraded by the gfs?

 

Edited February 7, 2022 by minus10

[MP-R]

GFS still not quite signing on to the raging zonality idea. More a weak Atlantic flow, followed by chilly high, followed by stronger push of Atlantic, followed by a northerly and another chilly high.

If anything ECM is showing more of a GFS default into FI.

[Ali1977]

I wonder if that front down south might produce some snow around T66, it’s not far off have the right Synoptics with DAM, and dew points..

[feb1991blizzard]

here comes the 1500 mile wide snowstorm.

[Jeremy Shockey]

A decent chance of some snow for favoured spots in the North @ t78 according to GFS 12z

[minus10]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

here comes the 1500 mile wide snowstorm.

The face of the vortex .....i can almost see a grin....

[minus10]

After day 10 (and even before it) the gfs seems to be all over the place, with its positioning of highs and lows, stormy then less stormy weather. 

Day 9 12z

day 9 6z

Day 12 12z

Day 12 6z

Thats to be expected you would say...however i would have thought that owing to a strong and long lasting vortex that would mean the weather pattens would be somewhat more consistent and therefore easier to predict. However as per the excellent article by Nick re why the winter forecast did not go to plan whereby the drivers that would normally result in a higher occurence of hlb were overwridden by the strong vortex...could it be the case that the gfs (and maybe other models) are initially predicting on the basis of the other drivers and then always correcting nearer the time to take into account the vortex. That being so would it not be better for the models to build in the vortex in their longer term predictions esrlier instead of always closer to the event. Thats probably to simplistic and maybe someone with more knowledge can correct me and/or advise accordingly...just a thought...

A look at how how winter 2021-22 is panning out vs the winter forecast

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

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A look at how and why the Netweather 2021-22 Winter Forecast is not really matching how the winter is playing out in reality.

 

[minus10]

Ecm 12z after the cold blip unsettled and stormy at times, especially in the north...as was remarked earlier  its having gfs tendencies....

Edited February 7, 2022 by minus10

[minus10]

Am i the only one on here?

Anyway the ukmo12z still showing a fairly significant but brief plunge of cold air on Friday...

[TwisterGirl81]

9 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Am i the only one on here?

Anyway the ukmo12z still showing a fairly significant but brief plunge of cold air on Friday...

I hope it's brief too...

24 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Ecm 12z after the cold blip unsettled and stormy at times, especially in the north...as was remarked earlier  its having gfs tendencies....

Bring on the storms

 

[Ali1977]

23 minutes ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

I hope it's brief too...

Bring on the storms

 

 

32 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Am i the only one on here?

Anyway the ukmo12z still showing a fairly significant but brief plunge of cold air on Friday...

 

[stodge]

Evening all

Certainly more than a hint of something much more unsettled and indeed stormy as we move deeper into February.

While the main LP centres sit far to the north, some vigorous secondary LP develop and cross close to or over northern Britain bringing spells of strong winds, heavy rain and perhaps snow for higher ground.

In contrast to most of the weather we've had in 2022, a real shock to the system but nothing desperately wintry albeit some brief potent PM shots always likely.

In today's "Hunt for Cold", if we are to believe, CFS, a chilly Cheltenham:

[Wingman Blue]

4 hours ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

A decent chance of some snow for favoured spots in the North @ t78 according to GFS 12z

Well, if anywhere up north gets it, Newbald will!   (Was living on Eastgate 11-13)

[minus10]

Well, remember the weeks of hp sat over or around us....that definately wont be the case if the gfs 18z is anywhere near the mark

 

Gfs predicting over 90mph winds for parts of the ne of England..

A very stormy disturbed run ....however we shall see...

Edited February 7, 2022 by minus10

[MP-R]

3 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Well, remember the weeks of hp sat over or around us....that definately wont be the case if the gfs 18z is anywhere near the mark

 

Gfs predicting over 90mph winds for parts of the ne of England..

A very stormy disturbed run ....however we shall see...

Indeed! Other than some very potent Pm interludes that might finally bring some snow to higher ground a bit closer to home, it's a rather uninspiring outlook. The saving grace down here of course being it won't be TOO wet, but still wetter than average for February, which is the driest and most benign month of the winter season (and one of in the entire year!).

[damianslaw]

Hope the winter isn't bookended by 2 storms of similar situation I.e. Storm Arwen mark 2.. the GFS output looks ominous in this regard with its northerly gale... 

[SLEETY]

Winter proper about to start in Europe at end of gfs, let's hope its correct for a change. 

Crazy looking charts in fl. 

[mb018538]

No posts today tells you all you need to know...

Looking quite stormy into next week, with an exceptionally strong Jetstream coming across the Atlantic and firing straight through the UK.
Potential for named storms as these could interact with the jet and rapidly deepen as per some of these charts below, though at this stage it's hard to give exact details:



Starting to look very wet in western areas as you'd expect, especially NW Scotland, where flooding could be a problem. Eastern areas drier, but much wetter than it has been of late:



Finally - a quick review of last night's ECM update. A sea of blue on the regime forecast, showing a very strong +NAO pattern dominating the rest of February.
The 500mb plot for 14-21 Feb shows low pressure squeezing the high away, before the following 2 weeks sees the high start to push back north, having greater control than the low pressure we will see next week:

[Ali1977]

The mean beyond day 10 does suggest the jet will be digging further south, this could end up being much windier and colder for all vice just Scotland !! 

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,ECM/GFS showing a very changeable pattern with an active Atlantic blowing both mild and cold spells snow in the mix and a possibility of some further south so still interest for a few surprises.

 

[minus10]

Very unsettled still after the weekend but .....once again Gfs upto its tricks in FI 6z