Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February

[Mark Smithy]

48 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

No posts today tells you all you need to know...

Looking quite stormy into next week, with an exceptionally strong Jetstream coming across the Atlantic and firing straight through the UK.

As you say.

We're paying for the settled spell last month with a reinvigorated jet blasting across the Atlantic. We may well not see change until into next month, official Spring. If so it will be the only winter in my lifetime without seeing a single snowflake.

Edited February 8, 2022 by Mark Smithy

[Cambrian]

Big differences between the 0z ECM and GFS operational runs at day 8 for the UK and Ireland. 

With the ECM, the PV is focused on an extension from northern Canada through Greenland to the northwest Atlantic The strong ECM jet stream runs west to east across the ocean, firing straight at us, no more of that talk of the Atlantic being dead. Mild and very wet.

   

While with the GFS, the PV has a distinct lobe over northern Scandinavia with the Greenland lobe being stretched all the way to Scotland. The jet stream is not quite so strong and diving southeast into Europe, with us on the cold side, at the edge of 1500 mile wide snowstorm  (look out Daily Star!), stretching SE from Greenland. 
   

It looks like very unsettled weather we’re going to be getting either way, but the two top models having very different day 8 solutions, the notable difference between mild wet weather or the chance at times of watching a fair bit of snow blowing about, and at this stage, each as plausible as each other.

[Newberryone]

While I agree that the overnight runs are still suggesting a far more mobile setup than of late it would appear to my untrained eye that those Iberian heights look like yet again diverting the worst of any wind and rain away to the far northwest during next week. Yes, it will become far more changeable from next weekend but the 0z Ecm run doesn’t seem to force the jet stream as far south with these Atlantic lows compared to previous runs. Something tells me that coming closer to the time we may not be seeing such a significant waning of these heights to the south after all which as everyone knows have played such a prominent role throughout January. 
PS Positively springlike here in Co Cork today.

Edited February 8, 2022 by Newberryone

[Nick F]

Just no EC ... Scotland would not want that next Wednesday! What's that - 120-130mph winds?

[Anthony Burden]

9 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Just no EC ... Scotland would not want that next Wednesday! What's that - 120-130mph winds?

Hi Nick would cause major damage to parts of Scotland if that materialist let’s hope not.

[mountain shadow]

25 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Hi Nick would cause major damage to parts of Scotland if that materialist let’s hope not.

Indeed. My sister lives in rural Angus and has had over two weeks already with no power in total.

Her fella is a tree surgeon though so he's working from dawn until dusk, seven days a week.

Looks very very Stormy next week, which suits me fine. 

[Glaswegianblizzard]

2 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Indeed. My sister lives in rural Angus and has had over two weeks already with no power in total.

Her fella is a tree surgeon though so he's working from dawn until dusk, seven days a week.

Looks very very Stormy next week, which suits me fine. 

Looks like Angus would hopefully be spared the worst, but the Western Isles, parts of Argyll and even into the Glasgow area would receive some very high winds - even looking across the Central belt it would be very windy indeed. Surely Red warning stuff given the population.

Obviously more runs needed to confirm, and we may well find it downgraded, but I'd suggest we are in for a stormy time here next week?

[mb018538]

3 hours ago, Nick F said:

Just no EC ... Scotland would not want that next Wednesday! What's that - 120-130mph winds?

Max gust on that chart is 132mph....Earlier on today, apparently, a woman rang the BBC and said she heard there was a hurricane on the way. Well, if you're watching, don't worry, there isn't....

[minus10]

Apart from north of Scotland gfs6z not nearly as lively. Seems that the model is having trouble deciding how far north or south the jetstream is going to be..

[Ross90]

That'll be watered down to a breezy day, stormy spells showing beyond 5 days very rarely materialise.

[Frosty.]

There’s a few flickers of life for coldies in the Gfs output today, albeit occasional and short-lived due to cold zonality but there’s plenty of mild zonality and my reading of today’s update signals the death knell of winter 2021 / 22…sadly lamented by a large group of friends and aquantances, may it rest in peace and the ashes taken to Australia!  

[Ali1977]

Day 10 mean getting colder, with jet continuing to dig south - many ENS have a stormy looking toppler type scenario with a chunk of PV dropping to our SE (examples below), so one to watch!! 
might not produce country wide snow, but definitely a storm on the cold side!! 

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,charts showing a very stormy time for next week everything but the kitchen sink on the menu cold and mild shots with perhaps the white stuff thrown in as well.Meanwhile this week Thursday and Friday look cold with frost and snow showers possible.

 

[damianslaw]

Text book zonal ridge / trough pattern.. something lacking last 12 months mind!

[Pixel]

7 hours ago, jon snow said:

There’s a few flickers of life for coldies in the Gfs output today, albeit occasional and short-lived due to cold zonality but there’s plenty of mild zonality and my reading of today’s update signals the death knell of winter 2021 / 22…sadly lamented by a large group of friends and aquantances, may it rest in peace and the ashes taken to Australia!  

I'm guessing the ashes will only get wet (damp) if they came back

Probably in time for snow come May/June, but then again it's anyone's guess going by the lack of observational model interpretation by even the best super human and computers these last few months 

[Frosty.]

According to the ECM 0z operational, it doesn’t look very mild, so there’s a positive for coldies!   

Edited February 9, 2022 by jon snow

[IDO]

Charts as expected, as we countdown the remnants of winter, little change with this pseudo-blocked NH pattern. A variation on the theme from Jan when the UK was under higher pressure, due to the tPV getting stronger in Feb. So the UK in a classic westerly zonal flow and D8-16 mean highlights where we are:

The tPV core to our NW and LP circulating to our north, aided by the Alaskan and Siberian highs.

Interest now lies in what will March bring us, as the tPV relaxes? More of the same, early Spring, or cool and wet?

 

[Paul]

Morning, another update to share today

The Met Office global model viewer is being upgraded and now has extra charts + runs from 00 hours to 168 hours in 3 hour slots. Keep an eye out for more chart types in the coming days as well:
https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/met-office

If you didn't see it before, we also recently did similar with the ECMWF and similarly, there'll be a bunch of new chart types for that very soon as well. Next up (this week hopefully), will be the MOGREPS model..

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/ecmwf

 

[damianslaw]

Just 4 posts since the one I last posted 17 hours ago.. never known it so quiet in here in early-mid Feb. Says it all, more of the same forecast by the models. A classic mobile zonal westerly flow.. I noted we've not had much of this for well over 12 months and it is this pattern that tends to result in lack of posts all year round. It's the set up that once locks in is difficult to shift and also the one where the models are much more confident about lasting..  hence little variation on the same theme.

 

[Fiona Robertson]

On 08/02/2022 at 09:48, Nick F said:

Just no EC ... Scotland would not want that next Wednesday! What's that - 120-130mph winds?

Ok, model peeps. Not an image I ever thought I would see and I really wish I hadn't. Can some of you knowledgeable folks explain to me where this model may be going wrong and what conditions will moderate this into something less extreme? I'm going on the assumption that this scenario will NOT happen and I'm interested to know what parameters may be leading the EC astray here.

[knocker]

2 hours ago, Fiona Robertson said:

Ok, model peeps. Not an image I ever thought I would see and I really wish I hadn't. Can some of you knowledgeable folks explain to me where this model may be going wrong and what conditions will moderate this into something less extreme? I'm going on the assumption that this scenario will NOT happen and I'm interested to know what parameters may be leading the EC astray here.

I don't pretend to be an expert on this but  your assumption regarding it verifying is correct but it is probably wrong to say the ecm has gone completely astray, Both the ecm and gfs have been indicating some rapid cyclogenesis around this time frame, generally close to the left exit of a very strong jet around of 190kts and thus the development of deep depressions. But at this range the handling of the rapid deepening and direction is for obvious reasons not precise so a watching brief is always advisable. Twelve hours later the deep low was further north and in fact this is currently the favoured option

Edited February 9, 2022 by knocker

[Man With Beard]

I'm looking forward to comparing the "mean" and "median" on the ECM in the coming months right out to D15.

Interesting to compare what it shows today for the end of Feb:

Mean D15 chart

Median D15 chart

Good agreement for the north. To the south, we can see that the median is very slightly more influenced by the Azores High, suggesting the majority of runs have higher pressure here than the mean showed. 

Definitely in line with the ECM control run at D15. Winter hell, spring heaven!

  

[PiscesStar]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Just 4 posts since the one I last posted 17 hours ago.. never known it so quiet in here in early-mid Feb. Says it all, more of the same forecast by the models. A classic mobile zonal westerly flow.. I noted we've not had much of this for well over 12 months and it is this pattern that tends to result in lack of posts all year round. It's the set up that once locks in is difficult to shift and also the one where the models are much more confident about lasting..  hence little variation on the same theme.

 

It couldn't get More Boring if It tried. Whenever bog Standard is shown, you just know it's gonna verify. Its absolutely pathetic..... The PV over the  US along with the jet stream and that constant massive high pressure to our South and west is responsible and clearly shown on GFS runs. 

[Allseasons-Si]

UKMO at 96....

that's the 1

 

[Trom]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

I'm looking forward to comparing the "mean" and "median" on the ECM in the coming months right out to D15.

Interesting to compare what it shows today for the end of Feb:

Mean D15 chart

Median D15 chart

Good agreement for the north. To the south, we can see that the median is very slightly more influenced by the Azores High, suggesting the majority of runs have higher pressure here than the mean showed. 

Definitely in line with the ECM control run at D15. Winter hell, spring heaven!

  

How exactly is median calculated.  I know it's the middle observation when observations are ordered from lowest to highest but how would this work with ensembles?  What defines lowest and highest value?