Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February

[snowray]

I don’t like the look of this never ending Pacific block of anomalous HP off the west coast of the USA. Is it just me that thinks that this needs to shift out of the way sharpish if we are still hoping for a chance of some late winter cold.

 

 

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, snowray said:

I don’t like the look of this never ending Pacific block of anomalous HP off the west coast of the USA. Is it just me that thinks that this needs to shift out of the way sharpish if we are still hoping for a chance of some late winter cold.

 

 

It's been a persistant feature of every winter since 12-13 by and large. 

Indeed there are similarities with the northern hemispheric synoptics of Feb 2020. This time around the jet looks slightly further south so probably not quite as mild and the azores high has a stronger influence acting against the storm track being the UK. With no sign of any pressure on the Polar Vortex any time soon.. it may just be a case of having to wait out a squeeze on the PV eventually which may well not be until March. Too late to salvage the winter from a cold perspective but not too late for wintry synoptics before spring arrives properly. Mind if we see a slow death as happened in 2020 we could jump into early summer warmth quite quickly which would be a bonus I guess. However ENSO was different then. 

For cold snow lovers the best can hope for is perhaps something akin to 1995 when a cold northerly airstream developed very end Feb and much first half of March. Northerlies were a common feature of said period in many years until fairly recently. Just feels like one of many recent winters when everything for cold and snow chances has gone against us. The lost chance at Christmas was a bad omen...

Edited February 5, 2022 by damianslaw

[Frosty.]

Help, help…I feel like desperate Dan! …just give up frosty, this winter is a busted flush…for the sake of your sanity frosty, move to Canada, Greenland, Iceland or Finland !  

 

[damianslaw]

1 minute ago, jon snow said:

Help, help…I feel like desperate Dan! …just give up frosty, this winter is a busted flush…for the sake of your sanity frosty, move to Canada, Greenland, Iceland or Finland !  

 

Yes thinking I will plan a winter holiday in one of those countries next winter just to guarantee a cold snow fix! 

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean now goes out to 21st Feb and guess what, there’s high pressure lurking with intent to the southwest.. …roll on spring..please put coldies out of our utter misery! …yah, I can see the funny side of this now, a bit like watching frequent England batting collapses in the ashes..feels like a 68 all out!  

 

[damianslaw]

19 minutes ago, jon snow said:

The GEFS 6z mean now goes out to 21st Feb and guess what, there’s high pressure lurking with intent to the southwest.. …roll on spring..please put coldies out of our utter misery! …yah, I can see the funny side of this now, a bit like watching frequent England batting collapses in the ashes..feels like a 68 all out!  

 

Hopefully come summer the yellow and purple are not swapped around! Wouldn't bet against it!

[Snowyowl9]

Hurricane in the north atlantic like 2 years ago serious bomb effect...

But the jet is much further north this year...

[Don]

51 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Yes thinking I will plan a winter holiday in one of those countries next winter just to guarantee a cold snow fix! 

That's certainly my plan, all being well with restrictions etc!

[minus10]

One thing the gfs 12z has plenty of is wind: 

[Blessed Weather]

Windy and mobile indeed. UK in the firing line with barely a day without a gale from GFS 12z. And week two looking worse than the next week on this evening's run. Here's the average wind strength at 10m, obviously gusts will be worse, and alongside the jet stream:

Week 1

Week 2

Source: https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=14

[carinthian]

A bit of a difference this evening between GFS and the extended UKMO picture below. Seems the UKMO run wants to bring in some cold continental air into the SE.

C

[carinthian]

UKMO extended indicates a cold Saturday in the South with negative DPs and uppers well into the cold range . Showed that this morning as well. 

C

[Dorsetbred]

22 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Windy and mobile indeed. UK in the firing line with barely a day without a gale from GFS 12z. And week two looking worse than the next week on this evening's run. Here's the average wind strength at 10m, obviously gusts will be worse, and alongside the jet stream:

Week 1

Week 2

Source: https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=14

So the suggestion is the overall flow is now beginning it's Southward movement, bringing in the Atlantic surge, at last..looking interesting from those model postings..boredom could disappear..

[Blessed Weather]

11 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

So the suggestion is the overall flow is now beginning it's Southward movement, bringing in the Atlantic surge, at last..looking interesting from those model postings..boredom could disappear..

Yes, a look back at the GFS 12z run on the 16th January shows the jet stream running north of the UK, looping around our semi-permanent High. So a definite shift south.

12z on 16th Jan:

[Nick F]

44 minutes ago, carinthian said:

A bit of a difference this evening between GFS and the extended UKMO picture below. Seems the UKMO run wants to bring in some cold continental air into the SE.

C

EC a little further south than UKMO with the high at T+168 but still traps cold air. GFS rather different to the HP of the Euros at thst time frame with low pressure barreling in. Perhaps GFS being to progressive with getting rid of the high? 

[Polar Maritime]

Models progressively looking like a very mobile Wintry mix, Especially in the North. Goodbye High pressure..

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean in the mid / longer term, for sure there is scope for cold zonality, especially further north and I would say broadly speaking it’s a north / south split with the most unsettled spells further north by northwest and the best of the drier spells further s / se…still no sign of anything markedly wintery but maybe the weather is saving that for March / April.. ?!  

Edited February 5, 2022 by jon snow

[Dancerwithwings]

16 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Models progressively looking like a very mobile Wintry mix, Especially in the North. Goodbye High pressure..

Hopefully your right PM as the control is on its own 

Edited February 5, 2022 by Dancerwithwings

[minus10]

47 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Hopefully your right PM as the control is on its own 

Yes, looking at net weather gfes one of the crasiest set of ens i have seen...the op looks like something on a heart monitor ???

[Jeremy Shockey]

ECM 12 z Ensembles for London

Not a bad mean for 11th Feb.  One to watch over coming days 

[SqueakheartLW]

Maybe we'll have to wait until 10th March to get our beasterly this year

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

12 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

4 days in actually old chap (when you posted this).. lol

theres nothing to indicate theres a pattern change before mid month and probably beyond. to get a proper wintry spell the current longwave pattern would have to completely change. is that possible?..yes, but imho its highly unlikely. id have thought any major pattern change wont come until we see that TPV over Baffin weaken/shift.

 

Aim is for latter half, particularly last 3rd.  Thanks for correction, been doing daft hours…forgot my days .  And my age is creeping up on me

Edited February 5, 2022 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[minus10]

Pub run getting more stormy:

Gfs keen to push vortex further south..

 

Even by gfs standards this is pretty crazy  and not all that mild...

Edited February 5, 2022 by minus10

[Man With Beard]

Interesting new chart on Meteociel is the ECM "median" chart, which I've understood my French properly represents the middle options of the ensembles - which may help us in the future to identify a lop-sided mean. It's quite cold for next weekend 

 

 

 

 

 

[johnholmes]

Just a look at the 500 mb anomaly charts, as anyone might expect, not a sign of any change yet out to 14 days

Sunday 6 February 2022

Neither show any real change from their charts showing for days now, looking back they are similar (very) to at least 24-25 January!!

The heights on both are not at all low if we take that over/nearest the Borders, so on the NOAA it shows about 552 DM and, as is usually the case EC lower at 546 DM. Thus other than temporary buckles in that pattern, as we have today, with colder values briefly extending south, then unsettled, even perhaps disturbed weather looks like being the pattern for some days to come. Colder and more disturbed and windy in the NW, less so and milder in the se.

 

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV