Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February

[Allseasons-Si]

The 18z gefs mean is a lot lot better than the 12z if it's cold you want,...better heights into S Greenland too

18z 192 vs 12z 204

18z gefs ens vs 12z for around 10th Feb.

not much showing in the anomalies at present but will they latch on?...i do feel that something is sniffing around the corner as we get to mid Feb>

 

Edited February 2, 2022 by Allseasons-si

[minus10]

Jff but the 18z gfs is showing an almost 6....yes 6 day cold spell........including a possible polar low...hey dont you just know it will be gone tomorrow...but nice to look at as we havent seen many of these type of wintery charts this winter..

Edited February 2, 2022 by minus10

[*Stormforce~beka*]

When did this high pressure take up residence? Was it after boxking day or after new years? I forget now as it feels like forever!

[Nick F]

4 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

When did this high pressure take up residence? Was it after boxking day or after new years? I forget now as it feels like forever!

From about the 11th of Jan, was low pressure in charge before then.

[Penrith Snow]

2 hours ago, Nick F said:

From about the 11th of Jan, was low pressure in charge before then.

Feels like since 11th Jan 2021!

[PiscesStar]

13 hours ago, johnholmes said:

When winter, in terms of cold and snow, as it will(!), appears there will be hardly anyone left. Just how some of you have watched every 3 hourly output from GFSx4 daily and others since November I have no idea. Nor for that matter any understanding of why you do it, especially once beyond the usual' forecasting ability anywhere,depending on the situation, from 5 out to 10 days.

Good luck all of you. Like m posted earlier little indication in the next 2 weeks of your prayers being answered other than the occasional 24-48 hour snap, and that more likely to affect the northern half of the UK.

 

Well how predictable a total bust. We look Joh, because hope is eternal my friend. GFS Continues to offer no cheer to coldies, blah blah blah blah 

[jules216]

12 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Interestingly that looks much milder across the whole continent .

@jules216may be better placed but I believe Eastern Poland /Belarus/ Baltics have had a cold winter thanks to the UK high.

From IMBY we had an average December and average January -0.7 and -2.1, western Slovakia is very mild while Eastern trending average, nights Well below average while Tmax above - Sunny frosty. Past week have seen near constant NW winds while for me I get a shadow from mountains the NW part is seing weekly accumulations at record levels of 2018/19 winter.Like this image from Yesterday.

[mb018538]

Certainly nothing like the 18z on the 00z runs....

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Certainly nothing like the 18z on the 00z runs....

Without any hope of a block to our North this was always likely IMO.

The blocking to the North will become more prominent into Match and April as the PV from hell subsides...

[chris55]

I can but dream..

 

[Tim Bland]

Still the chance of a few flurries for some tomorrow…

[chris55]

Some potential at 168 on the GfS 6z.

Gets rolled over later though.

 

[IDO]

06Z: From D7-D10 looks like GFS trying to get a transient toppling ridge, so a cold high for a few days:

 

Maybe some wintry showers in that flow for the usual suspects.

GFS is struggling a bit post-D7 ATM so take with a pinch of salt, but something like this is plausible in the current NH profile.

[Ali1977]

14 minutes ago, IDO said:

06Z: From D7-D10 looks like GFS trying to get a transient toppling ridge, so a cold high for a few days:

 

Maybe some wintry showers in that flow for the usual suspects.

GFS is struggling a bit post-D7 ATM so take with a pinch of salt, but something like this is plausible in the current NH profile.

The GFS mean would suggest the chance of a cold spell late next week shown on the Op is possible, with -6c uppers or colder covering many areas.

[damianslaw]

Just a hint from ECM and GFS the polar front jet may be pushed on a slightly more southerly path, weekend shows it slightly further south and this increases chance of colder air moving in from the NW... the forcing is from the PV...

Indeed things are trending colder for the north at least this weekend.. polar air holding on follow the isobars no injection of tropical maritime air the lines feed back to NE USA/Canadian arctic. These are important short term developments suggesting perhaps the denser colder polar air may fight off the influence of the azores high ..we shall see.

Edited February 3, 2022 by damianslaw

[FENDER.]

12 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

The 18z gefs mean is a lot lot better than the 12z if it's cold you want,...better heights into S Greenland too

18z 192 vs 12z 204

18z gefs ens vs 12z for around 10th Feb.

not much showing in the anomalies at present but will they latch on?...i do feel that something is sniffing around the corner as we get to mid Feb>

 

Yes that would be spring lol.

[phil nw.]

Although still a solid +NAO setup it is developing a bit more interest.

The jet starting to track further south into the UK at times as the high gives way somewhat.Plenty of days where the north of the UK, Scotland in particular, will be in a colder polar air mass and like tomorrow further south, where these polar incursions are looking more transient.Snowfall days increasingly likely further north by the looks of things.

The Uk pattern develops into a north/south split over the next week or so and there could be days where southern England sees temperatures close to 10c whereas places up north, around say the Inverness type of latitude, will be close to freezing.

It shows how close the cold air lies to the north and not to rule out the rest of February for Wintry surprises more widely if we are lucky enough to get a little more Atlantic ridging.

Edited February 3, 2022 by phil nw.

[minus10]

Gfs latest 850 ens seem fairly together almost to the 11th where it then loses it with op going on an rollercoaster outlier outing..

Changeable i think you can call it as far as temps are concerned...

[damianslaw]

14 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Although still a solid +NAO setup it is developing into a bit more interest.

The jet starting to track further south into the UK at times as the high gives way somewhat.Plenty of days where the north of the UK, Scotland in particular, will be in a colder polar air mass and like tomorrow further south, where these polar incursions are looking more transient.Snowfall days increasingly likely further north by the looks of things.

Very often the Uk pattern it develops into a north/south split over the next week or so and there could be days where southern England sees temperatures close to 10c whereas places up north, around say the Inverness type of latitude, will be close to freezing.

It shows how close the cold air lies to the north and not to rule out the rest of February for Wintry surprises more widely if we are luck enough to get a little more Atlantic ridging.

Yes as mentioned. Cold polar air looks like digging into northern parts more so than tropical maritime air in days ahead. Likely marked temp contrast north to south. The depth of cold coming out of Canadian arctic/Greenland area is significant and has the effect of shunting the polar front jet further south. 

[Ali1977]

A covering for some tomorrow morning according to the GFS, I’m in that little blue but so I hope so - although this is the GFS so I’m not holding out for a possible 1/4 cm

Edited February 3, 2022 by Ali1977

[mountain shadow]

A quick question for the learned on here:

I'm looking at the front moving in from the Atlantic right now and it has heavy rain across Western Scotland extending down to Western Ireland, however, from the North coast of Donegal down to Galway the rain isn't showing along the frontal boundary.

What would cause this?

Thanks in advance.

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

19 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Yes let's see if this winter after it's autopsy will be far from 'a damp squib' as you suggested a few weeks back! gfs had been p-poor at picking trends in January and now another 'possible' tease showing up towards FI...I'll only be interested when we get to near a week away and even then the banana skin is waiting

The main hope is a sting in the tail, and a cold March….7 days????…..I would wait until ‘within 5’….and that’s stretching it.  

 

BFTP

[Polar.]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

A quick question for the learned on here:

I'm looking at the front moving in from the Atlantic right now and it has heavy rain across Western Scotland extending down to Western Ireland, however, from the North coast of Donegal down to Galway the rain isn't showing along the frontal boundary.

What would cause this?

Thanks in advance.

 

It was showing on the met office radar. Must be an issue with netweather radar for that area.

[damianslaw]

I'm sticking to short timescales at present 4-5 days tops.. we've seen subtle but important changes for 48-72 hr timescale within 24 hr timeframes.. the immediate outlook shows Polar air dominating in the north for next 3 days, only 24 hrs ago the polar air was forecast to collapse and be replaced by azores high influence.. alas the jet has been pulled further south. These changes at short timescales lowers my confidence markedly at model output even at the 96-120 hr timeframe.

[mountain shadow]

11 minutes ago, Polar. said:

It was showing on the met office radar. Must be an issue with netweather radar for that area.

No. It's showing on the Met Office radar too, the whole of Northern Ireland is missing rain.