Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February

[Froze were the Days]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T168, wouldn’t take much for that to slide under:

Still a week away, and sometimes these blocks tend to be stronger than they look…so more runs needed.

Unfortunately although the jet is further south over the Atlantic it then just wants to go northwards and no splitting looking likely. This probably would be the final insult of this winter or early spring or whatever you want to call it.

[Mike Poole]

10 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Unfortunately although the jet is further south over the Atlantic it then just wants to go northwards and no splitting looking likely. This probably would be the final insult of this winter or early spring or whatever you want to call it.

As always, I enjoy your pessimism, Froze! 

It has been an utterly abominable winter, let’s not sugar coat it.  And with many ‘background signals’ in our favour.  Roll on the next one, but it would be hard for anyone even from Netweather to make a convincing confident long range prediction of a cold winter after this year.  

I do hope for a decent summer this year, though!  

Edited March 2, 2022 by Mike Poole

[Chesil View]

At least after weeks of crap we now actually have a situation even where the meto admit there is possibility of some wintryness and although the margins are tight they only have to be a hundred miles out on the progress of the cold air which us totally possible at that range with a global model and things can go from 80/20 against snow to 80/20 in favour. Certainly the most interesting spell of model watching since the pre Christmas fiasco anyway.

[Mike Poole]

Well, drawing a conclusion from the op runs might not be too sensible on this occasion, the ECM clusters show increased support in my view for some kind of cold and possibly snowy (for some) period in a week or so.

ECM clusters T120-T168:

Cluster 2 with 13 members is the one we’d want but there is potential with some of the others too.

[Uncertainty]

2nd split showing again on GFS. Would surely finish the vortex and herald big blocking  in the weeks ahead…

 

Back to the easterly saga…

The EPS strengthen the ridge slightly leading to quite a cold mean next Thursday . Remember this is from bifurcated outcomes so there will be some bitter members

 

 
Temp spreads indicate too that a good cluster of members go ‘all the way’ with the cold

 

Still, there’s not many op runs I’ve seen that go full on BFTE. If it’s going to happen, expect to some major model op runs really going for it tomorrow.

There are more, like the UKMO, who don’t advert the cold anywhere near and begin queuing lows up in the Atlantic early next week 

 

I think there’s now high confidence that the scandi high will exist and that it will pack some serious cold on its southern flank. The key variable is now it a position and the ability of any Atlantic lows to ‘guzunder’. Ideally we would see some retrogression  but that doesn’t seem likely at present.

This ecm pert shows the way, but the fact I really had to hunt for it tells you it is not the sensible forecast tonight

 

Nevertheless, and given the continued theme of this thread, the possibility of a spell of snow showers in the east and / or a stalling front from the west clashing with cold air is perfectly plausible and I’m sure Exeter are watching these developments as keenly as I am. 

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z still shows some hope for early spring excitement for coldies later next week but it’s certainly NOT the form horse so I don’t want to mislead anyone into thinking anything like these cherry picked charts might verify… anyway, you never know, stranger things have happened!  

 

[Mike Poole]

ICON 18z T120 looks…..,implausible?

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ICON 18z T120 looks…..,implausible?

Implausible meaning?!!feel like we got big 00zs coming up!!

[Uncertainty]

Now then…

[sheikhy]

Looks like the 18z has the easterly back on!!crazy stuff happening last few days!!

[Ali1977]

12z vs 18z, that’s some upgrade towards a cold snowy Easterly for the U.K.,  although I can’t say I’d wish a big freeze hitting those poor people to our East

Edited March 2, 2022 by Ali1977

[CoxR]

wow at this 18z run

[sheikhy]

After the 12z ecm this evening i had a feeling something like this would happen on the 18z!!this is a corker!

[ICE COLD]

The pub run shows the way

[Mike Poole]

GFS pub run delivers: T168:

There are so many variables here, and this is just one solution amongst many others which are rubbish, but having said that, on the other side of the argument; we might see a cold possibly snowy spell yet!  These things tend to correct towards a stronger hold on Scandi heights, so we look for upgrades tomorrow. 

[Iceman2606]

Pub run has completely lost it...

 

[Uncertainty]

What a chart that is. We need many more of these over the coming days to have confidence but that folks is a beast and it’s only a week or so after 2018. Would pack quite a wallop.

So different from the 12z and it’s the first real BFTE op we’ve seen. So low confidence and an extreme solution, but not implausible with the split in the strat and a QTR

Classic streamer set up.

 

[Mike Poole]

Wowsers!

That’s still in the mix folks!  

[Singularity]

18z GFS has shown that what goes on in the 4-5 day range is crucial for determining the strength and orientation of the Scandi High - hence its ability to force full trough disruption - next week.

Its a complicated interaction of three lows to our west that appears most important. So the situation is even more difficult for the models than usual. Some saga this could be!

[sheikhy]

Cold 850s from the continent of -8 more than enough for snow!hell even powder snow would be possible❄!!

[Don]

22 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Wowsers!

That’s still in the mix folks!  

Just a shame that's for Thursday next week and not tomorrow!

Edited March 2, 2022 by Don

[Allseasons-Si]

Evening all,...just been catching up in here

and just looking at the latest output,the ICON 18z has a more neg tilted trough at 120 compared to the 12z with the axis NW>SE

18z 120 v's 12z 126

the 18z control following the op here at 180 with the easterly although a tad slower at getting the cold uppers but the theme is still the same

now the mean at 180...

18z 180 vs 12z 186

more of a cut back west of the cold air now with -5 just off the east coast,..i would feel a better set of 18z ens coming up here.

 

 

Edited March 2, 2022 by Allseasons-si
typo

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, Britneyfan said:

one day I hope we get hot tropical winters 

One day I hope we get hot tropical ? summers! …anyway, for now I’ll have whatever the 18z has been drinking.. cheers…  

Edited March 2, 2022 by jon snow

[damianslaw]

Some of today's runs are reminding me of similar synoptics 11-12 March 96 and 06... frontal features moving into cold air producing significant snow at least here. Quite often March delivers such synoptics more likely than Dec-Feb! 

[offerman]

Woke up to disappointing runs this morning as opposed to last night. All can change though i guess.  it’s still too far out and still the pendulum effect. 
let’s see three days out to get more verification in the short term.