Storm Eunice - 18th February

[Freeze]

Why am I only forecast 60mph gusts from the beeb, on the coast, quarter mile from the sea...?

[Spikey M]

30 minutes ago, Joseph Hudson said:

I would seriously suggest showing him the forecast for tomorrow.  

I have, they just think it's a storm like any other. If I end up under an overturned Lorry then it is on them.

[Nick L]

1 minute ago, Liam Burge said:

I could be wrong, but where I live it seems like a slight downgrade has occurred (of course I'm only talking about my area and not the whole of the UK). Hopefully more downgrades happen.

Can you provide evidence for this because I'm really not seeing it.

[Pat Butcher]

24 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

Very interesting feature setting up here at 2pm on Friday. A few models have started to show a similar pattern to this.

This is the same feature two hours earlier on the AROME model on Windy.

Out of interest, is that abrupt 'wall' of wind and change in direction textbook sting jet?

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Looking scarier by the day this. That sting jet feature would result in absolute bedlam if it happens. All main lines would be shut due to Overhead wire damage, hundreds and hundreds of trees down, roads impassable, and plenty of damage to buildings.

Not even joking here, the authorities, employers and even Parliament really need to start getting a move on now, as this is now only 24 hours away.. 

[Mike Poole]

HARMONIE 0z looks to be picking up the possible sting jet too, here T36 and T37, causing an acceleration of the winds moving into E Anglia (highlighted):

[Skullzrulerz]

3 minutes ago, Freeze said:

Why am I only forecast 60mph gusts from the beeb, on the coast, quarter mile from the sea...?

Same, 66mph where I am.

[snowspotter]

15 million trees came down in uk in 1987 as they were still in leaf . Not saying there will not be damage but a comparison is not really realistic 

[Timbo]

4 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

Blimey there is a lot of hyberbole on here  about this storm . There is absolutely zero chance of anything even remotely like the 1987 storm down here . I think people are getting a bit ahead of themselves like when blizzards are predicted and paralysing snow and we end up with1cm . 

You my have egg on your face by the end of tomorrow making statements like that.....

[Skullzrulerz]

5 minutes ago, Midlander said:

15Z Friday, notice how much further north the wind field is with ICON 6Z

That's somewhat good news? London doesn't get the worst of it and more out to sea?

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Same, 66mph where I am.

App forecasts are useless.

[Dbarb]

Wait for the warnings that will update this morning BBC just mentioned they will be updated this morning. In addition someone above said we are comparing it to 1987? No one has said that

[Guest]

1 minute ago, snowspotter said:

15 million trees came down in uk in 1987 as they were still in leaf . Not saying there will not be damage but a comparison is not really realistic 

We cannot compare one event to another that hasn't even happened yet. It is foolish to underestimate Eunice, especially with the gusts progged by the models as well as the added wildcard of a potential sting jet.

For those in the highest risk area, what exactly is the downside to being a little overprepared? 

[Mark Smithy]

6 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

Blimey there is a lot of hyberbole on here  about this storm . There is absolutely zero chance of anything even remotely like the 1987 storm down here . I think people are getting a bit ahead of themselves like when blizzards are predicted and paralysing snow and we end up with1cm . 

Read Nick F's article first and then come back 

Major Storm Eunice this Friday - synoptic analysis

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

---

A synoptic analysis of Storm Eunice, which is forecast to bring damaging winds to England and Wales, along with snow to northern England and Scotland

 

 

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

That's somewhat good news? London doesn't get the worst of it and more out to sea?

Nah London did the south still get smashed, just a few hours earlier. About 75-80mph gusts from eyeballing it, but might be more in places.

Edited February 17, 2022 by kold weather

[Liam Burge]

Just now, Nick L said:

Can you provide evidence for this because I'm really not seeing it.

GFS: Current run

GFS: Previous run

 

ICON: Current run

ICON: Previous run

 

UKV: Current run

UKV: Previous run

 

Like I said I'm not generalising the whole of the UK when I say there has been a slight downgrade (some areas have suffered the complete opposite) however most models for MY area have downtrended ever so slightly (5-8mph).

[Karl83]

9 minutes ago, Freeze said:

Why am I only forecast 60mph gusts from the beeb, on the coast, quarter mile from the sea...?

Stop looking at the apps. As many have said before, look at the bigger picture and the posts on here. 

[Badgers01]

Just now, Liam Burge said:

GFS: Current run

GFS: Previous run

 

ICON: Current run

ICON: Previous run

 

UKV: Current run

UKV: Previous run

 

Like I said I'm not generalising the whole of the UK when I say there has been a slight downgrade (some areas have suffered the complete opposite) however most models for MY area have downtrended ever so slightly (5-8mph).

You are correct those current runs all show reduced maximum gusts for a lot of areas including Surrey ! 

[johnholmes]

The current Met O Fax chart sequence is probably the most accurate we have available. This takes it from off SW Ireland to exiting the NE coast of England.

A more accurate idea will be possible once the observation network over the UK and Eire starts to show the pressure falls, or isollobars. Once we get a hold on thos then, using old fashioned meteorology one can get a fairly accurate idea of its track for the following e hours and on from the largest fall of pressure in the 3 hour period shown on weather charts.

The chart link which shows this est is here

Weather Stations Analysis

METEOCENTRE.COM

This is the current 09z chart and you can see clearly where the forecaster has placed its current position. Once it gets into sw Ireland it will be easier to track, switch to the Uk  map rather then Europe and N Atlantic

 

[StingJet]

Mother nature at her most violent  "takes no prisoners"   ... never ever underestimate the power / ferocity and subsequent destruction of a severe weather event 

[kev238]

Absolute wind speeds most likely won’t reach 1987 levels but this storm feels similar to 1990

The fact it will be occurring during the day on a Friday - always a busy day- cannot be underplayed

I’m fully expecting a pretty large red warning for east anglia, parts of the southern midlands , Severn estuary areas and maybe London

Hopefully the public will tune into how bad this storm could be

 

 

 

[Skullzrulerz]

7 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

GFS: Current run

GFS: Previous run

 

ICON: Current run

ICON: Previous run

 

UKV: Current run

UKV: Previous run

 

Like I said I'm not generalising the whole of the UK when I say there has been a slight downgrade (some areas have suffered the complete opposite) however most models for MY area have downtrended ever so slightly (5-8mph).

Definitely a downgrade, though GFS does move the strongest winds to the far South West.

[Mark Smithy]

2 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

You are correct those current runs all show reduced maximum gusts for a lot of areas including Surrey ! 

Actually the UKV shows increased speeds!

But it's a bit of nonsense anyway as all the times are jumbled: comparing 09h00 with 10h00 with 12h00 and seeking out 5mph here or there is really losing the plot slightly.

Best to keep an eye on the overall synoptics all of which are as severe as yesterday, at the moment.

[Monkeypants]

3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

The current Met O Fax chart sequence is probably the most accurate we have available. This takes it from off SW Ireland to exiting the NE coast of England.

A more accurate idea will be possible once the observation network over the UK and Eire starts to show the pressure falls, or isollobars. Once we get a hold on thos then, using old fashioned meteorology one can get a fairly accurate idea of its track for the following e hours and on from the largest fall of pressure in the 3 hour period shown on weather charts.

The chart link which shows this est is here

Weather Stations Analysis

METEOCENTRE.COM

This is the current 09z chart and you can see clearly where the forecaster has placed its current position. Once it gets into sw Ireland it will be easier to track, switch to the Uk  map rather then Europe and N Atlantic

 

great post thankyou John. as always a balanced and very useful post for those of us who just want to know how it all comes together. I understand the excitement or nervousness of some but this can be often worse. thankyou again I've been waiting for your posts

[Mark Smithy]

1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Definitely a downgrade

No it isn't.

I think you should take a break from this thread and stop deliberately setting out to be annoying? You're not following the weather but some other motivation which you've been doing for the last 36 hours.

Hope you have a nice summer in Cornwall.