Storm Eunice - 18th February

[SnowBear]

Just a little pic from '87. And yes it's suspected it was a sting jet event with embedded tornadoes. I saw the destruction E and NE of Ispwich, and exactly as in this photo. 

Plus roofs gone, garages smashed, trees down on cars and houses, windows blown through, nearly every commercial greenhouse smashed to smithereens, warehouse roofs off, holiday caravan parks smashed up, flooding, and the power out for days. Just as you see in hurricane aftermath photos in the US. 

Don't under estimate a sting jet event. Very hard to predict, and it's good this time round we may get some warning via modern day modelling. 

Source: Eastern Electricity helicopter footage

[Timbo]

Lets have a friendly competition to were we think the strongest gust will happen tomorrow, ill start with 100mph around North Norfolk  

[Herefordweather]

Beggars belief when people are calling a few mph a downgrade. 
 

If you get hit by an 80mph gust, is it going to cause much less damage than an 85mph gust? Unlikely. 
 

Tomorrow could see some major disruption and whilst it may not be as strong and powerful as 1987, we now have a much larger population and I fear for life, I really do, especially when many interested in the weather aren’t taking it seriously enough. 

[Bartlett High]

Just now, Timbo said:

Lets have a friendly competition to were we think the strongest gust will happen tomorrow, ill start with 100mph around North Norfolk  

Pratts Bottom could be a tad windy.

[suffolkboy_]

48 minutes ago, GSP said:

In the 87 storm, I remember seeing images of swathes of trees down like something had barrelled through a forest. I wonder if that was a sting jet in operation?

They should be doing this now while people are together and can talk more about it, and prepare.

Yes in Suffolk Rendlesham Forrest was obliterated. May well have been a sting jet. We’re not looking at that severity tomorrow. I doubt I’ll see anything like 1987 in my lifetime. 

[Nick L]

I really don't understand the motivation to desperately find and declare "downgrades"? This is looking like a dangerous event, and if anything it has been underplayed by the media and the Met Office in recent days.

This has not downgraded, and there will be widespread damage tomorrow.

[Thunder and Lightning]

24 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

Blimey there is a lot of hyberbole on here  about this storm . There is absolutely zero chance of anything even remotely like the 1987 storm down here . I think people are getting a bit ahead of themselves like when blizzards are predicted and paralysing snow and we end up with1cm . 

I feel like this has *potential* to not age very well 

[Liam Burge]

Just now, Nick L said:

I really don't understand the motivation to desperately find and declare "downgrades"? This is looking like a dangerous event, and if anything it has been underplayed by the media and the Met Office in recent days.

This has not downgraded, and there will be widespread damage tomorrow.

I'm not trying to "find" downgrades, just comparing model runs.. isn't that what all weather enthusiasts do? I've never said that it won't be a dangerous event so don't put those words in my mouth. Just simply stating that in my specific area the maximum gusts have decreased, which is something I hope to see continue. 

Also, wasn't it you who told me to show you how my area had downgraded? And now you're accusing me of desperately trying to find downgrades?

[Nick L]

2 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

I'm not trying to "find" downgrades, just comparing model runs.. isn't that what all weather enthusiasts do? I've never said that it won't be a dangerous event so don't put those words in my mouth. Just simply stating that in my specific area the maximum gusts have decreased, which is something I hope to see continue. 

Also, wasn't it you who told me to show you how my area had downgraded? And now you're accusing me of desperately trying to find downgrades?

I have had no interaction with you at all so you've got the wrong person.

Edited February 17, 2022 by Nick L

[Met4Cast]

The comments re: "This wont be as bad as 1987" are somewhat unfounded and are underplaying what could potentially be a very disruptive & dangerous storm. 

The damage caused in 1987 was the result of a sting jet, that storm is the reason we know sting jets exist, the phenomena was largely discovered as a result of that storm. It's made more famous by the fact it was largely un-forecasted.

Storm Eunice could bring widespread inland gusts of 70-80mph. 1987 didn't even do that, the strongest gusts were reserved for coastal regions/within the sting jet. Some of the modelling for tomorrow is concerning, for context, the Burns Day storm in 1990 brought the strongest recorded winds on record to the London area of 87mph, some of the more extreme modelling for tomorrow challenge that record. 

I don't necessarily agree with comparing tomorrow with 87 or Burns Day, however I do think some are underplaying this quite a bit.

[Liam Burge]

1 minute ago, Nick L said:

I have had no interaction with you at all so you've got the wrong person.

 

I'm guessing this is not you then?

Anyway; I'm done with this conversation as this forum should be left for important updates and not some petty arguments.

[Mapantz]

Apart from the general variations in the models, the current situation looks no different than yesterday. It will be a damaging storm for many!

[jamesbhx]

AROME modelling this very intense feature that some are calling a "sting jet". 160/170kph which is pushing 105mph in the light pink zone.  That is the cumulative wind chart, not the wind at 0100 localtime.

[Nick L]

Just now, Liam Burge said:

 

I'm guessing this is not you then?

Anyway; I'm done with this conversation as this forum should be left for important updates and not some petty arguments.

Sorry, misread the quote in question.

[jam]

33 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

Blimey there is a lot of hyberbole on here  about this storm . There is absolutely zero chance of anything even remotely like the 1987 storm down here . I think people are getting a bit ahead of themselves like when blizzards are predicted and paralysing snow and we end up with1cm . 

wow the expert speaks

[Skullzrulerz]

7 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:

No it isn't.

I think you should take a break from this thread and stop deliberately setting out to be annoying? You're not following the weather but some other motivation which you've been doing for the last 36 hours.

Hope you have a nice summer in Cornwall.

It depends on the area, which you didn't even quote.

Yes it's a downgrade at that current time for most areas but looking at the south west, there's unfortunately been a upgrade for wind gusts.

What has been a fact for almost certainly is that closer the timeframe the wind gusts/speeds are downgraded/watered down.

If that's isn't the case this time around that I fully admit that I was in the wrong.

I apologize that you find my posts annoying but I'm simply giving my opinion on the current weather.

Have a good day sir.

[Thunder and Lightning]

5 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The comments re: "This wont be as bad as 1987" are somewhat unfounded and are underplaying what could potentially be a very disruptive & dangerous storm. 

The damage caused in 1987 was the result of a sting jet, that storm is the reason we know sting jets exist, the phenomena was largely discovered as a result of that storm. It's made more famous by the fact it was largely un-forecasted.

Storm Eunice could bring widespread inland gusts of 70-80mph. 1987 didn't even do that, the strongest gusts were reserved for coastal regions/within the sting jet. Some of the modelling for tomorrow is concerning, for context, the Burns Day storm in 1990 brought the strongest recorded winds on record to the London area of 87mph, some of the more extreme modelling for tomorrow challenge that record. 

I don't necessarily agree with comparing tomorrow with 87 or Burns Day, however I do think some are underplaying this quite a bit.

Yes. Especially the fact that this region has not seen 70-80mph gusts for many, many years. It has potential to be a very high impact event, at the daytime, during the week, populated areas. Even if significant downgrades did occur it would still be disruptive. ...And with the potential for a sting jet, the ceiling is very high for potentially very severe winds.

[Lesley89]

Just wondering how bad this storm will be in northern ireland tomorrow (belfast) I'm planning on taking the kids out but not sure if I should reschedule. 

 

[nick sussex]

The GFS06hrs run has edged slightly further north compared to the 00hrs run.

 

[Yarmy]

What's the corridor for a sting jet: 30 to 40 miles? I suspect (or hope, really) it will be slightly to my south. Got friends coming down tomorrow from up north. I've told them to get here before lunch if they are coming.

[ANYWEATHER]

6 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I really don't understand the motivation to desperately find and declare "downgrades"? This is looking like a dangerous event, and if anything it has been underplayed by the media and the Met Office in recent days.

This has not downgraded, and there will be widespread damage tomorrow.

Indeed! Some posters on about downgrading 3 or 4 mph what the heck! This storm Says danger, and I've been looking at computer models for years and this is the Predicted wind storm I've seen. Perhaps the wind speeds have been underestimated for some tomorrow? The only good thing is its not hanging about and the worst of the winds should be over for most by late afternoon. It's a developing situation ,so while the models can give us some detail, the trend is for a dangerous stormy spell...

[Captain Shortwave]

I don’t think this will be as physically damaging as some of the major events of the past (87 for instance), the winds of probably won’t be as strong and also the winds tending to be from the prevailing direction will help (the 87 storm were southerly than created a double header of a sting jet plus the winds funnelling northwards up the southern North Sea to create the catastrophic damaging to the woodland along the east Suffolk coast.

However, the storm is going to peak during the middle of the day, peak winds in the west also look like hitting morning rush hour and still impacting the east into the evening. This will present a much higher risk to human life than a storm occurring during nighttime hours.

A one in ten year event definitely, with the risk of it being more noteworthy than that. Especially as 70-80mph gusts look widespread across central/southern England.

 

[Nick L]

Just now, Captain Shortwave said:

I don’t think this will be as physically damaging as some of the major events of the past (87 for instance), the winds of probably won’t be as strong and also the winds tending to be from the prevailing direction will help (the 87 storm were southerly than created a double header of a sting jet plus the winds funnelling northwards up the southern North Sea to create the catastrophic damaging to the woodland along the east Suffolk coast.

However, the storm is going to peak during the middle of the day, peak winds in the west also look like hitting morning rush hour and still impacting the east into the evening. This will present a much higher risk to human life than a storm occurring during nighttime hours.

A one in ten year event definitely, with the risk of it being more noteworthy than that. Especially as 70-80mph gusts look widespread across central/southern England.

 

Another thing that made 87 worse was the time of year, with trees in full leaf. 

[Thunder and Lightning]

1 minute ago, Yarmy said:

What's the corridor for a sting jet: 30 to 40 miles? I suspect (or hope, really) it will be slightly to my south. Got friends coming down tomorrow from up north. I've told them to get here before lunch if they are coming.

Obviously don't want you to get hit by a sting jet, but I would imagine if one were to occur further south, it would be pretty bad - 90-100mph gusts in London? Yikes. Let's hope we don't get a sting jet. 

[sclarke]

I hate the terms 'downgrades' being thrown around in the context of this storm.  It's not a snow storm and we're not talking snow depths.

The difference between a 75mph sustained gust to an 85mph sustained gust is zilch, severe damage will still occur. You can still get damage way down in the 40-30's MPH winds, so to use the word downgrade in this context is stupid and very misleading.

There's no way away from the fact that big swathes of this country is going to see significant damage and disruption tomorrow, some may report higher wind gusts than others, but in the grand scheme that doesn't change the overall picture of how disruptive this will be for many millions.