Storm Eunice - 18th February

[ChannelThunder]

Red warning has to come out in the next few hours, I feel.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

How this is not starting to grab the main headlines on the likes of the BBC is worrying. I get it that we’ve had the usual winter storms in the recent years, such as Ciara and Doris, which were bad. However, there’s no doubt about it, this one looks like it will give the likes of October 2000, Boxing Day 1998, the storms of 2013/14 and even Burns day 1990 a good run for their money. People need to start preparing now whilst we’ve got a window of daylight and calmness, not later tonight when it could be getting too late. 

[Mark Smithy]

2 minutes ago, sclarke said:

 ''Typical downgrade''  ''won't be more than a gale''  ''we always miss out'' etc.

 

"A slight breeze" was the best. That really did take the biscuit.

Tomorrow looks very grim.

[Atmogenic]

42 minutes ago, StingJet said:

Mother nature at her most violent  "takes no prisoners"   ... never ever underestimate the power / ferocity and subsequent destruction of a severe weather event 

Won't say that as hurricanes are much more powerful and destructive 

[kev238]

Yes there’s been outstanding model consistency with this . Of course small differences of 50 miles will make a large difference to who experiences what but this is going to be a notable event for all south of Sheffield and for a portion of the country could be a 1 in 30 year event 

[Skullzrulerz]

1 minute ago, Lance M said:

Red warning has to come out in the next few hours, I feel.

I'm sure that someone mentioned that they usually update just before midday.

Especially in some areas, where the risk is quite high does warrant a red warning (even if models slightly diverge)

[alexisj9]

3 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

I'm driving from North Suffolk to the south side of Thames estuary via QE2 Bridge, tomorrow think I'll rearrange that for tonight not tomorrow late morning as was planned!

Think it'll be closed tomorrow though not sure what time.

[philglossop]

16 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Another thing that made 87 worse was the time of year, with trees in full leaf. 

Which is why I remember December 89 and January 90 as being bad. What is different this time is that that winter was stormy throughout down here, but winter has been pretty quiet bar Arwen. 
 

This quiet spell has led to a feeling of of this not being bad. I fear the opposite- this is serious and a severe danger to life as it’s in morning rush hour. 
 

When the met goes Red in some areas which it will- watch out. 

[weirpig]

Just one snapshot from the arp 6z   a large portion of england  under 75-85 mph winds    quite unbelievable really.

[liamtellis]

I'm here in Bridgend, south east Wales (around 6 miles from the coast). Went a bit quiet overnight but the wind has started to pick up again with a recent gust of 25mph. 

Interesting webcam to keep an eye on tomorrow in Porthcawl. 

Porthcawl Live Streaming Pier Cam | Porthcawl RNLI

WWW.PORTHCAWL-LIFEBOAT.CO.UK

---

The health crisis has hit our income hard. Lockdown halted the fundraising events we rely on to power our lifesaving service. Yet our volunteer lifeboat crew has never stopped being on call 24/7, ready and...

 

[Southern Storm]

22 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I really don't understand the motivation to desperately find and declare "downgrades"? This is looking like a dangerous event, and if anything it has been underplayed by the media and the Met Office in recent days.

This has not downgraded, and there will be widespread damage tomorrow.

I think it's best to assume and prepare for the worse, however, there has been a few events in the not to distant past, that have been hyped up a great deal, but have not turned out half as bad a originally forecast (or hyped up) this is probably what Is driving the thought process of some on here.

Whatever happens though, let's hope people take it seriously, we are definitely overdue a serious storm, we will get caught out someday.

[Midlander]

For those wanting to experience strong winds the ARPEGE looks better, a wider area of those greys affecting inland parts compared to 06Z

Edited February 17, 2022 by Midlander

[Sainsbo]

Possibly some further evidence of a sting jet on the AROME 0z: Vertical cross section shows air from ~800hPa descending to the surface collocated with the wind maxima.

[Pat Butcher]

1 minute ago, Sainsbo said:

Possibly some further evidence of a sting jet on the AROME 0z: Vertical cross section shows air from ~800hPa descending to the surface collocated with the wind maxima.

Wow. Good find!

[seb]

29 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

It depends on the area, which you didn't even quote.

Yes it's a downgrade at that current time for most areas but looking at the south west, there's unfortunately been a upgrade for wind gusts.

What has been a fact for almost certainly is that closer the timeframe the wind gusts/speeds are downgraded/watered down.

If that's isn't the case this time around that I fully admit that I was in the wrong.

I apologize that you find my posts annoying but I'm simply giving my opinion on the current weather.

Have a good day sir.

Eh? Speeds have nothing but increased for the SE in output over the last 24 hours.

[alexisj9]

7 minutes ago, Midlander said:

For those wanting to experience strong winds the ARPEGE looks better, a wider area of those greys affecting inland parts compared to 06Z

I'll be the first to say no thank you.

[Man With Beard]

1 minute ago, Midlander said:

For those wanting to experience strong winds the ARPEGE looks great, a wider area of those greys affecting inland parts compared to 06Z

Fascinating that the main area of attention is shifting to the eastern half of the country. The approach to the SW has definitely weakened slightly, to the extent that it may not need a red warning there. But it's clearly restrengthening as it passes to the east of Birmingham. Looks like 90mph possible across parts of eastern England on this Arpege 06Z. Definitely a candidate for a red warning. Will the Arome 06Z follow?

[Marcus_surfer]

Scared

[matty40s]

12 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

I'm sure that someone mentioned that they usually update just before midday.

Especially in some areas, where the risk is quite high does warrant a red warning (even if models slightly diverge)

Normally its 11.30am yesterday it was 10.30am

[Notty]

13 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:

Yes assuming it verifies it will have been a triumph of medium range storm forecasting.

What a HUGE way we have come since 1987.

The mere fact that the storm was modelled as a severe storm way before it even existed is incredible.

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Fascinating that the main area of attention is shifting to the eastern half of the country. The approach to the SW has definitely weakened slightly, to the extent that it may not need a red warning there. But it's clearly restrengthening as it passes to the east of Birmingham. Looks like 90mph possible across parts of eastern England on this Arpege 06Z. Definitely a candidate for a red warning. Will the Arome 06Z follow?

To be honest im not sure were you would put a red warning.  Most England and Wales seem at high risk.  Blanket Red?.  i really dont know.

[alibabba]

been talking to a few friends and family about this storm and to be honest no one is taking it seriously  not sure how bad it will get here on the lincolnshire coast but its falling on deaf ears 

[alexisj9]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Fascinating that the main area of attention is shifting to the eastern half of the country. The approach to the SW has definitely weakened slightly, to the extent that it may not need a red warning there. But it's clearly restrengthening as it passes to the east of Birmingham. Looks like 90mph possible across parts of eastern England on this Arpege 06Z. Definitely a candidate for a red warning. Will the Arome 06Z follow?

It's not restrengthening, it's still strengthening as it crosses us. 

[MKN]

11 minutes ago, Midlander said:

For those wanting to experience strong winds the ARPEGE looks better, a wider area of those greys affecting inland parts compared to 06Z

Arome is worst case i think with a clear sting jet adding an extra 10-20mph potentially in some areas inland to generally 80mph winds.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Fascinating that the main area of attention is shifting to the eastern half of the country. The approach to the SW has definitely weakened slightly, to the extent that it may not need a red warning there. But it's clearly restrengthening as it passes to the east of Birmingham. Looks like 90mph possible across parts of eastern England on this Arpege 06Z. Definitely a candidate for a red warning. Will the Arome 06Z follow?

Possibly because the storm is deepening slower and not fully developed until its practically slap bang over us... Will be watching the live surface pressure charts later and comparing to various models