Storm Eunice - 18th February

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here's where Eunice is currently tracking. The rotation should appear in the next few hours as it begins to rapidly deepen.

 

[suffolkboy_]

15 minutes ago, abruzzi spartan said:

Might be worth correcting that to 'taking heed'

Bloomin' auto-correct! 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

A meer 1005MB nothing ness currently... this time tomorrow possible down to below 970mb.. over 30mb drop in 24hrs!

MétéoCentre.com | La météo en temps réel pour le Québec, le Canada, les États-Unis et l'Europe

METEOCENTRE.COM

 

Edited February 17, 2022 by Surrey

[Dreckly]

I'm North Cornwall, not looking forward to this

[Mark Smithy]

7 minutes ago, ModestMention said:

Oh come on now Trelawney made two accurate predictions, comparing her to the Express just is harsh.

[stripeyfox]

On 17/02/2022 at 11:36, Darren Vidamour said:

He blocked me on twitter that fool!

yes - me too!

 

[TwisterGirl81]

Just checked....BBC weather has Exeter down for 81mph, this is 4mph less than the 1990 Burns Day storm, 5 hours of gusts of winds over 70mph!  This is going to be a storm we will remember...

[alexisj9]

11 minutes ago, weirpig said:

To be fair that sounds like a good point.  There are some huge cities that are likely to see 75 mph plus winds if the organisation is  to put those into the Red warning i would thought takes some discussions and time.

Hence the cobra meeting which I'm quite sure someone from the met, is probably at.

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

Hence the cobra meeting which I'm quite sure someone from the met, is probably at.

Unfortunately, however, any apparent tardiness regarding Met Office warnings will be seen as a window of opportunity in which the usual suspects can berate the MO. Sad, really?

[Jo Farrow]

14 minutes ago, Wivenswold said:

Perhaps a separate thread for the usual debate over whether the Met Office warnings are appropriate?  

From now on a lot of people will be coming here for updates on a potentially life-threatening storm, not a assumptive theory-based debate on Met Office administrative and coms issues.  

There is a thread here about the Weather warnings and includes a link to a blog (from 2020 but still relevant) about how the MO warnings are impact-based. Not relying on certain weather thresholds. 

Decision making - Severe weather warnings and The Matrix

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

---

Yellow, Amber and Red warnings - all warn of severe weather but not all yellow warnings are equal as the UK uses an impact based system. Extra understanding is needed for good decision making.

 

 

[DeepSnow]

Well living in Barry, directly on the South Wales coast, a town of 58,000 and with a small city of  Cardiff with almost 500k and many large towns with 10-40,000 along the coast, I think its right that South Wales and parts of SW England have the red warning first as we will get hit first. As others have said, once Meto are more confident later, I'm sure the red will extend to other areas. 

 

As much as I like a good storm, I'm not overly sure I'm looking forward to tomorrow and the potential damage etc. Thankfully I'm off until Mondayso can stay in tomorrow. 

[JamesC]

Latest UKV 09z is now substantially downgraded in windspeed gusts from yesterday afternoon / evening. This is still a powerful storm but it has without a doubt downgraded for the majority of areas when compared to yesterday. 

I think that the MO have got the red warning spot on here and personally do not expect to see any additional red warnings, unless the sting jet comes to fruition. 

Before you discuss the term 'downgraded' please compare the UKV charts for 09z to 15z/18z/21z from last night. As a whole I'd estimate a fall in windspeed from 10-15mph for a lot of areas.

The sting jet is concerning though.

 

Edit: How do you post past charts from netweather website, if you click on the image it only shows the current model run? Like the one attached. (09z)

Edited February 17, 2022 by JamesC

[Mapantz]

I see no downgrade unless you're talking about within 250 metre grid squares?

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

4 minutes ago, JamesC said:

Latest UKV 09z is now substantially downgraded in windspeed gusts from yesterday afternoon / evening. This is still a powerful storm but it has without a doubt downgraded for the majority of areas when compared to yesterday. 

I think that the MO have got the red warning spot on here and personally do not expect to see any additional red warnings, unless the sting jet comes to fruition. 

Before you discuss the term 'downgraded' please compare the UKV charts for 09z to 15z/18z/21z from last night. As a whole I'd estimate a fall in windspeed from 10-15mph for a lot of areas.

The sting jet is concerning though.

 

Edit: How do you post past charts from netweather website, if you click on the image it only shows the current model run? Like the one attached. (09z)

Certainly not a downgrade for my area. If anything, it’s been getting worse the further north it is being modelled. It wouldn’t be a wise move to start undermining the potential of this. 

[johnholmes]

So here is the latest plotted and analysed chart (computer not human) for 11 z.you can use the link to see how the computer is positioning it hour by hour.

https://meteocentre.com/analysis/map-surface.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=standard

To try and inject a bit of calm into this thread and  try and give a solid professional view of the likely track of the storm. This is exactly what is happening in the operational suite at Exeter. A team of professional forecasters, many with a huge amount of experience doing their best to get a good ‘handle’ on this storm.

Like I posted earlier until it starts to show the isollobaric pattern (pressure falls) ahead of it into SW Ireland then an accurate forecast of its path is not going to possible. This is including all the model data that the team at Exeter have at their disposal, surface and upper air, satellite information etc. So, in my view the area given a red warning is sensible with the data currently available. Further ed warnings seem highly likely as the storm track becomes clearer.

If we look at the latest Fax charts you can see the expected movement of the storm through tomorrow, west of Rosslare (Eire) to west Yorkshire and ne Denmark. So roughly about ene for its track. It may well get given further adjustments through the day which is when any further rd alerts would come out.

https://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm

I hope this helps.

For sure I’ll be watching things closely tomorrow morning as this storm moves into the UK.

sorry Jo I had not seen your post which explains the full details of how warnings are assessed-many thanks

 

Edited February 17, 2022 by johnholmes

[weirpig]

5 minutes ago, JamesC said:

Latest UKV 09z is now substantially downgraded in windspeed gusts from yesterday afternoon / evening. This is still a powerful storm but it has without a doubt downgraded for the majority of areas when compared to yesterday. 

I think that the MO have got the red warning spot on here and personally do not expect to see any additional red warnings, unless the sting jet comes to fruition. 

Before you discuss the term 'downgraded' please compare the UKV charts for 09z to 15z/18z/21z from last night. As a whole I'd estimate a fall in windspeed from 10-15mph for a lot of areas.

The sting jet is concerning though.

 

Edit: How do you post past charts from netweather website, if you click on the image it only shows the current model run? Like the one attached. (09z)

Yep  certainly the winds are down compared to yesterday  60-75mph  perhaps through  england and wales.  with the areas in the red zone  80 plus  

[Bartlett High]

I'm a delivery driver in Cardiff for Tesco and I should be working tomorrow.....I wonder if deliveries will be cancelled....somehow I doubt it.

Edited February 17, 2022 by Bartlett High

[Lorraine]

1 hour ago, alibabba said:

been talking to a few friends and family about this storm and to be honest no one is taking it seriously  not sure how bad it will get here on the lincolnshire coast but its falling on deaf ears 

We live just north  west of swindon , so I'd expect it to be quite strong winds. Yet a few locals are like.. yea.. yea. Itll be fun chasing bin lids around Not a care in the world 

Edited February 17, 2022 by Lorraine

[The Real Snowman]

21 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Here's where Eunice is currently tracking. The rotation should appear in the next few hours as it begins to rapidly deepen.

 

Incredible image - thank you very much for posting. 

[Ross90]

1 hour ago, Stabilo19 said:

70mph winds in the middle of a working day in London justifies a red warning. This has been consistently modelled for days now.

70 mph in other cities likely wouldn't be a red warning...

[Methuselah]

Here's the latest Met Office forecast. An evolving situation requires evolving warnings?

 

[Mark Smithy]

Some of this 'downgrade' stuff is complete nonsense. Simply bears no relation to the actual charts or what professional forecasters are adding.

The depth of the low has, if anything, intensified and peak depth is tending to occur over the UK now rather than in the Bristol channel.

This is a severe storm that is going to cause widespread disruption and damage.

Actual wind gusts will become easier to forecast later in the day and overnight.

 

[DeepSnow]

Just looked at these from the UKV and some areas look like the gusts have weakened a bit, albeit still very strong. However looks to have strengthened for some of us in the SW and South Wales.

 

[JamesC]

5 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I see no downgrade unless you're talking about within 250 metre grid squares?

So you decided to ignore the time stamps from yesterday which was the point of the post? 

Besides the charts you posted do show a slight decrease in wind speed in a large portion of England.......

Please post the charts from 18z / 21z from yesterday with the same comment as you made above....

[Ben Sainsbury]

15 minutes ago, JamesC said:

Latest UKV 09z is now substantially downgraded in windspeed gusts from yesterday afternoon / evening. This is still a powerful storm but it has without a doubt downgraded for the majority of areas when compared to yesterday. 

I think that the MO have got the red warning spot on here and personally do not expect to see any additional red warnings, unless the sting jet comes to fruition. 

Before you discuss the term 'downgraded' please compare the UKV charts for 09z to 15z/18z/21z from last night. As a whole I'd estimate a fall in windspeed from 10-15mph for a lot of areas.

The sting jet is concerning though.

 

Edit: How do you post past charts from netweather website, if you click on the image it only shows the current model run? Like the one attached. (09z)

The UKV 9z is actually worse for W Wales & SW England, eeek.