Storm Eunice - 18th February

[Jackski4]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

50-70 miles further north from what i can see

How much does 50-70 miles increase the intensity potentially?

[SqueakheartLW]

Definitely lower pressure than predicted by the models already

987mb at 19z. Compare this with the models

GFS, Arpege, ICON, ECM and GEM at or maybe slightly under 990mb at 19z

These 5 models are closest to the mark but are slightly less deep with the low at the same 19z timeframe

NASA has 995mb at this stage 19z

NASA a bit less strong than the main models

CFS and NAVGEM 1000mb at 19z

CFS and NAVGEM more conservative with the deepening of the storm

JMA 1005mb at 19z

JMA least keen on developing this storm

 

It would seem the strongest predictions are closest to the actual outcome at present but even these have underestimated the developing storm so far.

This to me would suggest a more northerly track than predicted and even stronger winds.

I wouldn't be surprised if several places top 100mph winds and further north than predicted.

Could mean my part of the country gets battered completely tomorrow afternoon and even more so as the storm exits in the evening.

[Wold Topper]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Looks north of modelling to me?

Where will it exit the east coast do u think CC ?

Edited February 17, 2022 by Wold Topper

[MJB]

Local schools are now issuing closed notices for tomorrow 

[ChannelThunder]

I'm not sure it is further north than modelled. If you've got an app like Windy where you can flick quickly between the satellite image and the latest ECM, it looks spot on to me. If it is further north, it's marginal. 

It could be like @winterof79 suggested; i.e. the curvature of the Earth just making it seem much further north than expected.

[The PIT]

This site maybe useful in a little while

UK North Atlantic Weather Buoys & Light Ships

WWW.NEWTONANDNOSS.COM

---

North Atlantic and UK Weather Buoys

 

[Eskimo]

3 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Definitely lower pressure than predicted by the models already

987mb at 19z. Compare this with the models

GFS, Arpege, ICON, ECM and GEM at or maybe slightly under 990mb at 19z

These 5 models are closest to the mark but are slightly less deep with the low at the same 19z timeframe

NASA has 995mb at this stage 19z

NASA a bit less strong than the main models

CFS and NAVGEM 1000mb at 19z

CFS and NAVGEM more conservative with the deepening of the storm

JMA 1005mb at 19z

JMA least keen on developing this storm

 

It would seem the strongest predictions are closest to the actual outcome at present but even these have underestimated the developing storm so far.

This to me would suggest a more northerly track than predicted and even stronger winds.

I wouldn't be surprised if several places top 100mph winds and further north than predicted.

Could mean my part of the country gets battered completely tomorrow afternoon and even more so as the storm exits in the evening.

Where can I find the pressure charts please?

[Mark Smithy]

4 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Definitely lower pressure than predicted by the models already

987mb at 19z. Compare this with the models

 

Thanks for this. 983 mb at 20z but I know you know that and were wanting to compare with the charts.

Edited February 17, 2022 by Mark Smithy

[SqueakheartLW]

1 minute ago, Eskimo said:

Where can I find the pressure charts please?

Weather Stations Analysis

METEOCENTRE.COM

 

[Ian Ballinger]

because it's further North does that mean it will be worse in North Wales than predicted 

[Scott Ingham]

4 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

How much does 50-70 miles increase the intensity potentially?

Its extremely difficult to quantify that. But further North means a stronger system which should mean stronger winds in theory. Its very difficult to work out however. Some posts suggesting the curvature of certain charts have got merit. Its very hard to tell. But my own opinion after spending half hour is it is 50-70 miles north. Gfs12z is the closest model to what i can see so far or the ukmo12z

[Bristawl Si]

Windy! Let's all bunker down and hide away!

[Polar Maritime]

Let's keep it nice and friendly, From now on 

Edited February 17, 2022 by Polar Maritime

[Eagle Eye]

1 minute ago, Bristle Si said:

Windy! Let's all bunker down and hide away!

We could all go to the top of a hill and bring loads of projectiles us, I think that would show what 'a little wind' can really do.

[pages]

Those that all saying it is deeper and further north than predicted at this time remember that the models are in French time.

I.e if you are looking at satalite image/pressure reading from 8pm UK time we should be comparing with the 21:00 charts on meteociel.

[Porto]

I swear some people in here take personal offence when people just even remotely suggest to be careful in a RED WARNING storm. Wild

Edited February 17, 2022 by Norrance

[Mapantz]

1 minute ago, pages said:

Those that all saying it is deeper and further north than predicted at this time remember that the models are in French time.

I.e if you are looking at satalite image/pressure reading from 8pm UK time we should be comparing with the 21:00 charts on meteociel.

I can't speak for meteociel, but zulu time is GMT, so there would be no difference.

[NessCottage]

44 minutes ago, SnowBear said:

Mostly offshore winds on this side of the country. Wrong direction for us to get a storm surge. 

Yes, the Dutch are reported to be closing their barriers. I helped close our floodgates this evening for tomorrow's morning high tide which has a 0.48m surge which just takes us into the point where the gates are closed.

 

[Eagle Eye]

Just now, Porto said:

I swear some people in here take personal offence when people just even remotely suggest to be careful in a god damn RED WARNING storm. Wild

I'm not surprised to be honest

Do I need to say more than, we are the British?

Some of us will be British and others will be more British

Some of us will be the careful side of the British and some of us will be the 'I want to be free even when it's 85MPH wind gusts' British

I'm not saying either is right or wrong, I'm just saying, I'm not surprised because we're British

 

[Guest]

17 minutes ago, Lance M said:

I'm not sure it is further north than modelled. If you've got an app like Windy where you can flick quickly between the satellite image and the latest ECM, it looks spot on to me. If it is further north, it's marginal. 

It could be like @winterof79 suggested; i.e. the curvature of the Earth just making it seem much further north than expected.

I’m not sure it is either. also if the low itself is elongated it might be deceiving. 

Edited February 17, 2022 by Alderc

[winterof79]

Nowt in it I'd say

[MJB]

Any more thoughts on a sting jet?

[BleakMidwinter]

40 minutes ago, SnowBear said:

Gusting storms such as tomorrows can actually be more damaging than a constant speed low order Cat1 hurricane. 

With a hurricane the wind increases gradually, and is mostly constant, whereas what we will see tomorrow in gusts is more like a hammer.

So it's a bit like a pane of glass in a tank which might withstand say 100kg pressure if its gradually filled up, but if the pressure is all of a sudden applied it will probably break. 

My old home in Edinburgh sat 30m below, with nothing at all in between, the Blackford Observatory station which recorded the 102mph gust in Storm Ulli - at exactly that time, a huge heavy Victorian cast-iron skylight was wrenched out of our roof (on the leeward side of the roof, at that), and landed three storeys down in the back garden as a startling piece of twisted metal. Neighbours two gardens away found broken window-glass shards across their gardens... 

We were lucky the damage wasn't worse, and that it landed harmlessly in gardens, but a gust can do serious damage... 

[Jayne aka Pembsgal]

7 hours ago, Spikey M said:

I thought it was half term anyway? Mine are off for it.

Not half term in wales til after tomorrow 

[Aqbadger]

25 minutes ago, MJB said:

Local schools are now issuing closed notices for tomorrow 

Nothing in Oxford yet but interesting to hear mate