Storm Eunice - 18th February

[stokepa31]

1 minute ago, Jayne aka Pembsgal said:

Not half term in wales til after tomorrow 

Yep im in Coventry and no closure notice yet for tomorrow. They wont be going anyway. Mocks are finished so no harm staying home

[Honey]

I’m seeing a lot of FB posts ‘oh it’s ok - we are just Amber not red we are protected’

[Mark Parsons]

Schools closing early for half term in my part of Dorset tomorrow.

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Honey said:

I’m seeing a lot of FB posts ‘oh it’s ok - we are just Amber not red we are protected’

Best share this status with them then. 

 

it is a shame it needs explaining though. Is that a flaw with the public's perception of the amber or the warning system itself? Mainly rhetorical that, by the way. No need for another 'down the rabbit hole' on the warning system!  

Edited February 17, 2022 by Steel City Skies
spelelellling

[Lorraine]

2 minutes ago, Honey said:

I’m seeing a lot of FB posts ‘oh it’s ok - we are just Amber not red we are protected’

I've heard the same " all we'll be doing is chasing bin lids " 

[DaveL]

59 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

Aren't SUSTAINED winds from hurricanes 74mph+? Even Cat 1 gusts regularly reach far beyond 100mph. This storm is nowhere near the destructive impacts of a hurricane, let alone a Cat. 2.

True but hurricanes are categorised while out at sea and usually weaken at landfall except in a small area close to the eye.  The inshore waters forecast says violent storm force 11 for a time off the entire south and SW coasts - only one notch off true hurricane strength so some coasts will get a right old battering, while the total area impacted inland by wind will likely be greater than a cat 1 hurricane.

Edited February 17, 2022 by DaveL

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

4 minutes ago, Honey said:

I’m seeing a lot of FB posts ‘oh it’s ok - we are just Amber not red we are protected’

A little knowledge can be a dangerous thing indeed! 

[Weather roller-coaster]

3 minutes ago, Honey said:

I’m seeing a lot of FB posts ‘oh it’s ok - we are just Amber not red we are protected’

People just don't understand the power of the weather if they don't warn. People will say why didn't you tell us can't win probably the same idiots going walking in the hills and taking pictures of the waves risking other people to rescue them 

[Porto]

The Met switching to a watch + warning system might not be a terrible idea. A Red Watch over most of S England would make sense to fill in the gap between the Red Warning and Amber Warning when confidence isnt super high.

All waiting on those 18z runs now, despite my years of model watching I never remember the times they come out 

[weatherobsuk]

Longshaw Estate, Ilam Hall, Dove Dale, and Ladybower will be closed all day tomorrow here in the Peak District, Northern Services between Buxton & Manchester will be limited (if at all.)

[rwtwm]

4 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

Best share this status with them then. 

 

it is a shame it needs explaining though. Is that a flaw with the public's perception of the amber or the warning system itself? Mainly rhetorical that, by the way. No need for another 'down the rabbit hole' on the warning system!  

I've been thinking today that for much of the Amber area, two ticks would be appropriate in the grid. One as shown, fairly high confidence of highest impact. But there's near certainty of the second level of impact too so there could be a tick in the third box on the top row. 

I'm not suggesting they do this, and I'm not sure if it would help. More just pointing out another difficulty in communication and interpretation.

[kazaddress]

1 hour ago, Stubbette said:

Total saddo replying to my own post but we're now ready to rock.... set up at a height of about 2.5m (yeah, I know it's not high enough) near to a low hedge with open fields on one side, no trees for at least 20m and buildings 40m. And the latest wind outside my kitchen in Cheshire East is.... 0 mph!!!

You are brave. I got a new shiny weather station for my birthday but I chickened putting it up incase it gets damaged in its 1st week

[Man With Beard]

16 minutes ago, MJB said:

Any more thoughts on a sting jet?

Don't rule it out. Keep watching Arpege and Arome models.

[Johnp]

8 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

Best share this status with them then. 

 

it is a shame it needs explaining though. Is that a flaw with the public's perception of the amber or the warning system itself? Mainly rhetorical that, by the way. No need for another 'down the rabbit hole' on the warning system!  

I’ve replied to him, see what he says!

[Man With Beard]

9 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

Best share this status with them then. 

 

it is a shame it needs explaining though. Is that a flaw with the public's perception of the amber or the warning system itself? Mainly rhetorical that, by the way. No need for another 'down the rabbit hole' on the warning system!  

This is a good post, and yes it does need explaining to the public doesn't it. It means other areas may go red too, as needed.

[SnowBear]

Storm looks to be moving due east, highest speed estimated, 108km/h in southern section of the storm. 

[Ross90]

11 minutes ago, DaveL said:

True but hurricanes are categorised while out at sea and usually weaken at landfall except in a small area close to the eye.  The inshore waters forecast says violent storm force 11 for a time off the entire south and SW coasts - only one notch off true hurricane strength so some coasts will get a right old battering, while the total area impacted inland by wind will likely be greater than a cat 1 hurricane.

This plus winds in a hurricane tend to be more sustained and less gusty. A Cat 1 could be sustained 80mph but that would likely only mean gusts in the 100 - 110mph range. The storms we get tend to have lower sustained speeds and be much more gusty, something like 40 mph sustained and gusts of 75 mph is more typical for us.

Edited February 17, 2022 by Ross90

[Mike Poole]

10 minutes ago, Honey said:

I’m seeing a lot of FB posts ‘oh it’s ok - we are just Amber not red we are protected’

Yes, this has been my worry about the warnings, exactly.  I know we have discussions about the right or wrongs of warnings for every severe event on here, and I’ve tended not to get involved much, but on this occasion I feel the Met Office have erred on the dangerous side given the very different levels of risk at different places under the same blanket amber warning area.

[Jayces]

6 minutes ago, Porto said:

The Met switching to a watch + warning system might not be a terrible idea. A Red Watch over most of S England would make sense to fill in the gap between the Red Warning and Amber Warning when confidence isnt super high.

All waiting on those 18z runs now, despite my years of model watching I never remember the times they come out 

10 PM I believe for the GFS anyway.

[Mark Smithy]

979 mb at 21h00 so it's dropping 4mb an hour at the moment.

[SqueakheartLW]

Down to 979mb at 21z

2 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:

979 mb at 21h00 so it's dropping 4mb an hour at the moment.

Just posted this at the exact moment you did

4mb per hour. Keep that up and we'll be at 931mb by 9am tomorrow

Edited February 17, 2022 by SqueakheartLW

[SnowBear]

3 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

This plus winds in a hurricane tend to be more sustained and less gusty. A Cat 1 could be sustained 80mph but that would likely only mean gusts in the 100 - 110mph range. The storms we get tend to have lower sustained speeds and be much more gusts, something like 40 mph sustained and gusts of 75 mph is more typical for us.

Wilma in 2005 had 1 minute avg'd 120mph winds as a Cat 3, gusts were up to 150mph.

[Mapantz]

I'm going to play "Guess the gust" for my weather station, tomorrow.. My record (on this particular model of station) is 56mph. The anemometer is situated at 10m on a chimney, but despite it's height, my exact location does cause me to lose some of the strong winds, depending on the direction. The Purbeck hills to the South and Southwest of here can take a lot of the strength out of wind by the time it reaches here. Any wind gusts over 50mph, that I have recorded, I class as significant due to some of the factors I have mentioned above.. Will I break 56mph tomorrow? Believe it or not, I am undecided 

[Snowjokes92]

Anyone know if the southern pennines will have a bigger impact from the winds due to geographic nature and under the inpacts of such a powerful storm?

[Mark Smithy]

1 minute ago, Mark Smithy said:

979 mb at 21h00 so it's dropping 4mb an hour at the moment.

Bearing in mind that a 'weather bomb' or rapid cyclogenesis is defined by a drop of 24mb in 24 hours, at the moment it is falling 4x faster than a weather bomb