North West Regional Discussion March 2022 onwards

[A Face like Thunder]

9 hours ago, A Face like Thunder said:

Yes, a grand morning and feeling quite warm and muggy. No sign of rain in the past week whilst I've been away Have I more chance today of seeing Crewe Alex win than seeing rain?  

Crewe didn't win and I've seen no rain, so where does that leave me? Answers on the back of a £10 note to.........

Seriously, overcast and close, but forecast suggests any rain will not be with us until later tomorrow as the cold front starts to move through the Region.

[WillinGlossop]

Have large splodges of rain not drizzle not enough to dampen ground…. Still 18c 

[Weather-history]

1 hour ago, Chris.R said:

Are they on the same planet? They were already wrong today. Do they actually look at current conditions?

 

North West England weather forecast

Saturday 3 Sep -Wednesday 7 Sep

Headline:

Unsettled throughout the coming days.

This Evening and Tonight:

Outbreaks of rain will continue this evening, some of which will be heavy. Overnight however will turn dry for a time, before some further rain reaches Irish Sea coasts during the early hours. Increasingly windy, especially near the coast. Minimum temperature 13 °C.

Sunday:

Outbreaks of rain will spread northeastwards throughout the morning. The rain will become more showery into the afternoon, allowing some sunshine to develop. A windy day especially along the coast. Maximum temperature 22 °C.

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gctb71y5s#?nearestTo=&date=2022-09-03

 

The Met Office have let it slipped badly for sometime. Warnings dished out willy-nilly, whilst warnings that should have been given out, were not. Late November last year being a good example, risk of ice over higher ground that evening and yet there was lying snow at sea level, Sunday midday. Where was the ice warning for low ground for the Monday rush hour traffic? There was freezing fog and lying snow here that morning.

Poor and odd wording in text forecasts such as "wintry rain"  

Why are there only voice over forecasts for weekend and Bank Holidays? Do Aiden McGivern, Alex Deakin not work weekends? I thought being a meteorologist involved working shifts, BBC weather presenters work shift but it looks as though McGivern and co don't work weekends?

Edited September 3, 2022 by Weather-history

[Chris.R]

5 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

The Met Office have led it slipped badly for sometime. Warnings dished out willy-nilly, whilst warnings that should have been given out, were not. Late November last year being a good example, risk of ice over higher ground that evening and yet there was lying snow at sea level, Sunday midday. Where was the ice warning for low ground for the Monday rush hour traffic? There was freezing fog and lying snow here that morning.

Poor and odd wording in text forecasts such as "wintry rain"  

Why are there only voice over forecasts for weekend and Bank Holidays? Do Aiden McGivern, Alex Deakin not work weekends? I thought being a meteorologist involved working shifts, BBC weather presenters work shift but it looks as though McGivern and co don't work weekends?

Without question. And then there is the most grievous one for me; no amber warning for storm Franklin when we had 75 mph gusts and crazy conditions on a Monday morning rush-hour.

[severe snowstorm]

As I suspected might be the case, it stayed virtually dry here all day with the rain fizzling out as the remnants eventually moved across. There was the briefest of light showers whilst I was out on my bike late afternoon, but this only lasted for about 20 seconds, so hardly worth mentioning. More rain forecast for tomorrow by the metoffice...

[Scuba steve]

Heavy spots of rain from a very thundery looking sky even in the fading light ,had to bring the garden seat cushions in ,lol

[RobR]

Glad the forecast washout never materialised with Nantwich food festival returning after three years. A muggy day, but nice to spend sitting around eating and drinking.

[carinthian]

6 hours ago, Rush2112 said:

Yes, that's the airport, a few aircraft flew over the top of me seemed quite low on their descent to landing.  The views on the other side were out towards Shropshire, Wrekin Hill, too hazy to see it today.  Good view over Beeston and the tall towers of Manchester City centre.  Views have changed somewhat since you were up there, so many new builds, housing estates that stick out like sore thumbs.  Countryside slowly being gobbled up.

Yes, I remember my time at Manchester Airport, Bickerton Hills in South Cheshire was a visible landmark. On very clear conditions, normally under a SWly dry adiabatic flow , Wrekin Summit  was on the outer reaches but at times clearly there as was the Clywd Range of mountains.

C

[East Lancs Rain]

Arrived in Scarborough this evening. Nice place. Like being on the east coast. Travelled there by bus all the way! Used four buses in total - Colne to Keighley, Keighley to Leeds, Leeds to York and York to Scarborough. Was cheaper than the train but took ages - was ok until we got to Leeds but the next two buses to Scarborough were cancelled so we had to get the bus to York and then had to wait in York for ages for the Scarborough bus. Set off shortly after 10 am but did not arrive in Scarborough until after 7 pm! It was a long and stressful journey, think we’ll get the train next time. 
 

Weather has stayed dry all day for me, with some hazy sunshine. Some spots of rain this evening in Scarborough though. It has been quite a warm and humid feeling day but then once we got to Scarborough it was noticeable how much cooler it was. Always seems to be cooler on the coast in summer, probably due to sea breezes. The same temp at the coast can feel much cooler than the same temp inland, in my experience.

 

The forecast for the next week in Scarborough looks changeable - showery, dry some days, temps moderate around 18-22°C.

[Rush2019]

8 hours ago, carinthian said:

Yes, I remember my time at Manchester Airport, Bickerton Hills in South Cheshire was a visible landmark. On very clear conditions, normally under a SWly dry adiabatic flow , Wrekin Summit  was on the outer reaches but at times clearly there as was the Clywd Range of mountains.

C

Yes, must admit I've never seen Shropshires hills, even from Shutlingsloe or Bosley Minn, the viewing conditions must have to be pretty near perfect.  Good clear days as you say the Clwydian range, Moel Famau is a good spot, some say you can see Snowdon beyond it.  

[severe snowstorm]

An overcast start here, but dry. No rain recorded overnight, so looks like we have dodged it yet again and another largely dry day could be in prospect, despite the forecast. The Welsh hills are gobbling up any rain that is destined for here.

[Rush2019]

Min of 17° last night.  Still is 17°.  Been a spot of rain in the air but nothing significant.  Manchester METAR has heavy showers from 1pm, we'll see what transpires, off out dog waking this pm with my daughter, she has a beautiful Husky called Luna and a tiny terrier mix of all sorts called Jess.  Notable wind this morning, certainly not feeling as muggy as yesterday.  @Chris.R BBC last night mentioned possible storms, dare I mention the thunder word, now for Tuesday for NW, what are your thoughts?  

[Chris.R]

Every day this week looks to have a storm potential. Today there is a risk later in the evening but risk has decreased on recent runs. Looks like it will stay dry today unless any showers do develop this evening.

Models seem to be handling this terribly but not as bad as the Met are.

Early hours tomorrow looks like a trough although might stay out in Irish sea and nobody seems to agree how much lightning there could be with it.

Tomorrow afternoon looks the best risk so far but honestly with the success rate of models and forecasts recently then who knows. Wouldn’t surprise me if it stays dry all week.

Edited September 4, 2022 by Chris.R

[Had Worse]

16 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Every day this week looks to have a storm potential. Today there is a risk later in the evening but risk has decreased on recent runs. Looks like it will stay dry today unless any showers do develop this evening.

Models seem to be handling this terribly but not as bad as the Met are.

Early hours tomorrow looks like a trough although might stay out in Irish sea and nobody seems to agree how much lightning there could be with it.

Tomorrow afternoon looks the best risk so far but honestly with the success rate of models and forecasts recently then who knows. Wouldn’t surprise me if it stays dry all week.

A classic case of now casting.

You know the script. Met puts warning out and any extreme weather miraculously turns to drizzle or tracks North or South of the region. 

[Weather-history]

The rain that fell was only enough to dampen the ground. 

[Chris.R]

Trace rain recorded today, trace rain recorded yesterday. Before that no rain since trace on the 28th and then before that no rain since the 24th (2.7 mm) The 23rd (trace) and the 22nd (12.7 mm).
that really is quite dry.

[carinthian]

10 hours ago, carinthian said:

Yes, I remember my time at Manchester Airport, Bickerton Hills in South Cheshire was a visible landmark. On very clear conditions, normally under a SWly dry adiabatic flow , Wrekin Summit  was on the outer reaches but at times clearly there as was the Clywd Range of mountains.

C

The Panoramic views from the Control Tower from what I remember at Ringway were special looking across The Cheshire Plain .  Raised above the Bollin Valley , landmarks such as Jodrell Bank and Bosley Beacon was easy to view as were the Bickerton Hills out in South Cheshire. Looking further south just to the left of the Sandstone Trail in the direction of Nantwich and Audlem, Wrekin summit  in Salop at just over 400m could be picked out when favourable conditions allowed. I am sure that Snowdon could not be seen but may be wrong.

C

[Chris.R]

At last the Sun is coming out. Hopefully that will set some convection off this afternoon. What an epic cold front that was lol.

[A Face like Thunder]

We have not been included in the yellow weather warning for thunderstorms just issued for tonight. So, do we need ear plugs to avoid Monday morning blues? 

[Chris.R]

We might end up being between two areas of storms one to  the east and one to the West of us. It’s a nowcast situation though so anything could happen.

[dodge]

Meto app now updated next 3hrs with 70% tstorm chance... that's blown it then...if they had kept the sunny spells graphics I might have had a chance of an almighty deluge. <sarcasm>

[Rush2019]

Stunning walk through Macc Forest.  Reservoirs looked pretty full.  Caught in 2 sharp but brief showers, the earthy rich smell of petrichor after them was amazing.  Some breaks in the cloud revealed substantial cumulus way out over west Cheshire.  Daughters Husky nearly fully grown and well behaved.

[dodge]

In the storm avoidance corridor again.

[carl1980]

Heavy shower just passed didn't last long,looks like more following 

 

Edited September 4, 2022 by carl1980

[severe snowstorm]

A warm and muggy day again. Just had a brief light shower, but not enough to even slightly dampen the ground.