Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

[Don]

1 minute ago, minus10 said:

JFF but that is some pretty intense heat building up over north Africa at the end of the gfs 12z run...in excess of 33 deg 850s !!!! 

One of these days will be that sort of heat that makes its way through Spain and delivers 40C to our shores?! 

[minus10]

4 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Can i ask a question seeing as I'm having a discussion about that the Saturday temperature forecast chart above, is extraordinary for gradient?

I say I cannot remember a chart where it can be 10'c on one side of the island and 32'c on the other, 22'c of difference.

Now it may or may not come off , but it is an extraordinary chart, don't you think?  

Yes, agree. Not often you see such a steep difference in temp gradient at this time of the year...think someone earlier mentioned it looks like something in the mid west usa where cold fronts sweep down from the north displacing the high temps/ humidity from the south...doubt that we will see the severity of storms that normally accompany that over there though...however would expect there to be some storms if conditions allow...btw which are forecast for saturday by bbc ....

[Guest]

ECM Ops run was pretty aggressive against it own ensembles in shunting out the heat, UKV, GFS, GEM all keep some sort of heat in south on Sat.

[NEVES SCREAMER]

2 hours ago, Roadrunner said:

Anyone care to take a punt on where the rain band will be on Saturday? 

Yep  . Slap bang over Wolverhampton  .

[MP-R]

24 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Yes, agree. Not often you see such a steep difference in temp gradient at this time of the year...think someone earlier mentioned it looks like something in the mid west usa where cold fronts sweep down from the north displacing the high temps/ humidity from the south...doubt that we will see the severity of storms that normally accompany that over there though...however would expect there to be some storms if conditions allow...btw which are forecast for saturday by bbc ....

Reminds me of that weekend in May 2020 when it fell from the mid twenties on Saturday to barely teens on the Sunday then close to freezing into the Monday!

[sheikhy]

Icon pushes the warmer way further north and west for saturday compared to the 12z!!!

[Don]

15 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Icon pushes the warmer way further north and west for saturday compared to the 12z!!!

The ICON is not going from zero to hero is it?!

[Guest]

22 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Icon pushes the warmer way further north and west for saturday compared to the 12z!!!

Not sure it could have been further south on the 12Z, the cold was near Paris…..

[StormChaseUK]

1 hour ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:

Yep  . Slap bang over Wolverhampton  .

On Saturday afternoon I'm going to say Wrexham, Shrewsbury area , Liverpool will be cooler rainy,  somewhere like Hereford still just about in the warmer , hotter air. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Torrential rain across some parts of the UK on Saturday according to the ICON

[Scott Ingham]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Torrential rain across some parts of the UK on Saturday according to the ICON

Thats very extreme! 

[StormChaseUK]

Oof.. so close

[Snowy L]

Good ridge pushing in for Monday and Tuesday so far. Should bring low twenties which is nothing to complain about. Very hard to predict what will happen though, a lot depends on what the Biscay Low does. As long as it keeps spinning away in Biscay it provides a good support for high pressure to extend East above it into the UK in a favourable alignment for warm temps.

 

Edited June 13, 2022 by Snowy L

[clark3r]

24 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Oof.. so close

Don’t trust the pub run, 34 sat in south east to 11 on Sunday over 20 degrees drop and 40 degrees so close to our shores def one for the bin 

[Guest]

5 hours ago, Thundershine said:

Well this turned into a one-day wonder joke. Give me 20 degrees and sunny for a month over this downgraded rubbish.

I think you're in the wrong thread, or at the very least haven't followed the output much over the last few days.

Potential for 25C in our part of the world tomorrow and Thursday, depending on cloud amounts. For Friday then the high 20s is very likely with the possibility of 30C, too.

Overnight runs have also trended in favour of clearing the heat more slowly south and east on Saturday. If the rain stays north, we could scrape another mid 20s day if we're lucky. Even so, still a lot to be resolved for the weekend, but before then some very pleasant days to come.

Hardly 'rubbish' 

Edited June 14, 2022 by Steel City Skies

[Paul]

Locking this one now - new thread (with posts from this morning split into it) is here: