Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

[Troubleatmill]

13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Still no compelling evidence to call Saturday/Sunday 

also, no strong steer on whether the upper trough will verify middle next week as far south as recently modelled on the ens means. 
 

hence, we’re all here ! 

Yeah, looking at the EC clusters, cluster one is unsurprisingly similar to the Op (naff) , cluster 2 looks similar to the GEFS (NW airflow, but not awful) and cluster 3 is similar the GFS ops we have seen the last couple of days (azores ridge building in-best case scenario ) 

No real dominant cluster

[Frosty.]

To put it bluntly, the GEFS 6z mean looks pretty disappointing next week for the majority who are hoping for further summery weather next week…BUT..here and there, an albeit very small number of 6z members offer hope that all is not lost regarding the last third of June! ️…amazingly..P12 is another cracker, like the 0z.. …could be an omen!  
 

 

Edited June 13, 2022 by jon snow

[sheikhy]

Gfs 06z and latest ecm 06z very similar at 90 hours!!ecm 06z lining up that plume very nicely for friday!!

[Methuselah]

Here's the Met Office's take on likely developments. So, expect fake-news articles concerning 'encroachment' in Cambridge jumbo jet exhausts by Heathrow!

 

Edited June 13, 2022 by Ed Stone

[Guest]

ICON 12Z is very progressive for Saturday, the  heats completely cleared the south by 12Z on Saturday with temps in the low to mid teens in southern England - surely not. GFS 06Z had 30C on Saturday......

Edit - GFS 12Z is slower bringing in the higher uppers, only peaking at 18C now on Friday and the heat is subsequently squeezed about 100 miles further SE with it only contained in London to Dorset. 

Edited June 13, 2022 by Alderc

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 hours ago, sheikhy said:

Gfs 06z and latest ecm 06z very similar at 90 hours!!ecm 06z lining up that plume very nicely for friday!!

Awful for us Saturday though! especially me, further west

[bluearmy]

So far the 12z’s have presented more questions than answers ! 

[Iceman2606]

GFS 12z still warm/hot widely for Friday although a downgrade for Saturday keeping the heat confined to London/SE.?

[Mark wheeler]

UKMO

Edited June 13, 2022 by Mark wheeler

[mb018538]

Warmer weather returning on Tuesday on the 12z GFS

[clark3r]

13 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

UKMO

20 line right over my house on Saturday 

Edited June 13, 2022 by clark3r

[sheikhy]

28 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

So far the 12z’s have presented more questions than answers ! 

Defo more questions than answers this evening mate!!!what are the chances ecm now pulls out a hot one this evening!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Looks like there could be a narrow band of torrential rain somewhere on Saturday. 

[Iceman2606]

12z ICON & ARPEGE both showing high twenties/low thirties widely for Friday.

[cyclonic happiness]

45 minutes ago, Iceman2606 said:

GFS 12z still warm/hot widely for Friday although a downgrade for Saturday keeping the heat confined to London/SE.?

that temperature gradient is one of the most severe I've ever seen!   20'c difference in just 100 miles??! 

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

that temperature gradient is one of the most severe I've ever seen!   20'c difference in just 100 miles??! 

Yes agreed, it’s the sort of gradients you see across the plains of the US when cold fronts surge south east. 

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

that temperature gradient is one of the most severe I've ever seen!   20'c difference in just 100 miles??! 

Hence the torrential rain in the sweet zone.

[Captain Shortwave]

GEM going for 33c across parts of East Anglia

It does get the 20c a fair distance into southern England, a little further north than the UKMO.

The Arpege has a similar profile

There is some cloud cover across parts of the south on Friday, even a few bits of precipitation. That may be removed on future runs.

The weekend looks very messy with several elements that could change the position of that boundary between the hot continental air and the cooler air coming from the north/north west.

Edited June 13, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[Guest]

14 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Yes agreed, it’s the sort of gradients you see across the plains of the US when cold fronts surge south east. 

Who's up for a chase? 

[Don]

53 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Warmer weather returning on Tuesday on the 12z GFS

The cool spell following the heat spike seems to have ebbed away.

[Guest]

UKMO brings a lot of cloud in Friday and temps are adjusted down accordingly, annoyingly despite the 20C isotherm hanging around for a chunk of Saturday extensive gloom limits surface heating. As yet still little evidence to suggest anything particularly thundery (this is almost a reverse breakdown) 

[Iceman2606]

12z UKMO has the 20°C isotherm getting into the SE although temperatures are not as high due to some cloud cover being modelled.

[Roadrunner]

Anyone care to take a punt on where the rain band will be on Saturday? 

[Guest]

It would be a shock to see ECM anything other than the heat more restricted than this morning given all the models have trended that way.  

Just now, Roadrunner said:

Anyone care to take a punt on where the rain band will be on Saturday? 

Could be anywhere from in the channel early afternoon to near Brum given output this evening. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

55 minutes ago, Don said:

The cool spell following the heat spike seems to have ebbed away.

ECM looks quite aggressive with it at D5 to me?