Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

[Supacell]

40 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

If I really had to try and nail down a location for tomorrow, I think a region between Wrexham, Liverpool, Manchester towards Blackpool might do best.

I am in agreement there. I was thinking somewhere around Lancashire as a good bet for storms tomorrow. 

I'll be checking in the morning and then likely chasing if things still look good. Will be nice to only have to travel 100 miles instead of the 200 I have had to travel so far this year to see a storm

Edited June 22, 2022 by Supacell

[Cheshire Freeze]

19 minutes ago, Supacell said:

I am in agreement there. I was thinking somewhere around Lancashire as a good bet for storms tomorrow. 

I'll be checking in the morning and then likely chasing if things still look good. Will be nice to only have to travel 100 miles instead of the 200 I have had to travel so far this year to see a storm

N Wales, Liverpool and up into W Lancs is looking like the consensus zone.

Some hints a second elevated round pushes N through the West Midlands into Cheshire tomorrow night (Sat early hours) but a less strong signal for this at present.

You can see round 1 here

Potential round 2-

Edited June 22, 2022 by CreweCold

[NUT]

Convective Weather

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

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Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

 

[The Tall Weatherman]

Convective weather reckons it’s a bust for us. You never know it could be a bust for wales and be amazing for us ! Have seen events like that before. 

[sheikhy]

Yup not looking good now!!loads of cloud incoming from south east aswell!!gona be a bust for me i reckon as well!!

[Cain]

Sky certainly is different this morning south east wales

[The Tall Weatherman]

The UKV 3z model is showing some initiation for early morning on Friday, the BBC mentioned it as well in their morning forecast. Trend starting to appear?

[Guest]

1 minute ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

The UKV 3z model is showing some initiation for early morning on Friday, the BBC mentioned it as well in their morning forecast. Trend starting to appear?

Is that the secondary plume @CreweCold was talking about? Only further east than his charts .

[Justin1705]

People moaning about high level cloud, flagging instability for our region should really really visit the forecast as this is expected. Elevated convection in morning SE and thru day. Surface bases elsewhere, it's very hot and I'm of in SE this morning and it really does look thundery on the skys. Stop being so negative and calling a busy already. !!

Edited June 23, 2022 by Justin1705

[Justin1705]

[Had Worse]

Meanwhile in the Peak District and outskirts of Manchester there isn't a cloud in the sky. 

[BrickFielder]

Not exactly sure where low level wind convergence will take place ,but it looks like it will play a part.

Other factors coming into play are cloud cover damping things down.

Temperature and dew point will be key and I guess late afternoon early evening upper level cooling.

Models favour Wales, Manchester and Liverpool areas but I would not rule out the south coast, London and East Anglia.

Possible elevated storms over night.

Looking at current conditions I can see Dew points above 15C in East Anglia while they are still down at 11C in parts of the West. Just a hunch but I would not rule out storms in the East.

Best forecasting now will be looking out the window  and watching the radar.

 

[Slysi100]

More cloud in south Devon this morning. Got a feeling we'll get nothing here but you never know

[StormChaseUK]

Here in Ludlow, West Midlands the conditions are prime - I would expect to see cells fire over Brecon/Hay on wye area then move up maybe across to Telford later.

[Harry]

Not anticipating anything thundery here today now following model updates, but will say it’s notably more humid here now compared to yesterday and this is wafting north and westwards. I’d be surprised if there aren’t some corkers further north and west in the next 24 hours good luck all!

[Dangerous55019]

Morning everyone.

I see that the UK Meto have just issued an updated thunderstorm warning for today. 
 

As ever, good luck to everyone with this today. ?⛈

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Morning everyone.

I see that the UK Meto have just issued an updated thunderstorm warning for today. 
 

As ever, good luck to everyone with this today. ?⛈

You can even see the Triangle of Doom on that!

[Chris.R]

Looking good for me later on. Should be under some seabreeze convergence. Already 21.6°C. Tomorrow and Saturday looking quite good as well.

WRF and Net app  suggesting maybe something overnight as well?

[SarahWxm]

59 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Meanwhile in the Peak District and outskirts of Manchester there isn't a cloud in the sky. 

Same here in Wrexham. It’s absolutely glorious. Not a cloud. Nearly died on the school run though as it’s so muggy!!! I’m feeling excited and hopeful for later on  

[shogan83]

Feels more humid this morning especially when the sun gets a break in the clouds.  Starting too get dark too my south, wouldn't' be surprised if I get a heavy shower shortly.

[alexisj9]

47 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

You can even see the Triangle of Doom on that!

And se Kent lol. It's going to build over land, expected that, the elevated stuff this morning had no umph.

[neil_b]

Here's hoping the Marches are in the firing line

[StormChaseUK]

1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

And se Kent lol. It's going to build over land, expected that, the elevated stuff this morning had no umph.

Surface based today, so will be in the heat of the afternoon inland and where breezes converge.

[Gray-Wolf]

First clouds here in the Calder Valley.....looks like the air didn't like the ascent up from Rochdale?

 

Developing pretty fast too! from nowt to 2/3rds covered in half an hour?

[Justin1705]

1 hour ago, Had Worse said:

Meanwhile in the Peak District and outskirts of Manchester there isn't a cloud in the sky. 

This is the surface based firing line, good luck all