Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

[TonyH]

Muggy and hot here before the thunder and torrential downpour!

[Chris.R]

It does feel a little cooler now and less humid but I think that’s just an allusion as mentioned before. It’s still 25°C with a dewpoint of 13°C it’s just a bit more windy now and I’m in the shade in the back garden.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Band of showery rain has passed here with nothing much on it. Looks like that’s it for here with the zone of convergence set to be N and W of my location.

Grass starting to yellow here. Could do with some meaningful rain. Seems like we go on extended periods of near drought these days.

Edited June 23, 2022 by CreweCold

[Allseasons-Si]

20 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Low risk today, but not no risk. Not enough for me to warrant storm chasing though. Not least because my home is not without risk. Infact through the next 48 hours there could be storms pretty much anywhere.

I still the best chances today will be the Welsh border counties into NW England this evening and then Northern England tomorrow.

No,me neither but i hope that something gets going from the south later on this evening and into the early hours,some forecast's have a few cells moving NNE through the early hours

as for now like you say,the welsh borders up into NW England have a good chance of seing a storm and as i type N Wales is exploding with a line of cells

i have done a scribble on the sat image to show you all why this is:-

you can see a classic hammerhead shape to the system and as it engages the onshore breezes(red line)this is where a CZ is forming so anyone near that red line will have the best convective potential.

 

Edited June 23, 2022 by Allseasons-si
typo

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I’ve highlighted a couple of areas going by the nowcasting point of view. 
 

Mid and N Wales, Merseyside, Lancs, clear convergence zones here. Also the North Downs has cumulus fields, as well as West Anglia and N Home Counties with convergence also happening in those areas. Unexpected CAPE has sprung up in areas that weren’t too favoured at the start of the day, due to predicted cloud cover. East Anglia and the SE have remained in the sun which will have led to sea breezes enhancing the convergence zones. 

[Island Singer]

Sadly not much here I don't think on the Isle of Wight...Still, we've had some bangers lately!

[SarahWxm]

Splatters of rain now. Think I’m going to have to retreat from the garden lol

[The Tall Weatherman]

Literally no cape is near wales or north west England at all, the instability is hanging to the south east. Bodes well for elevated storms in a few hours time?

[Sprites]

The evening might be the most likely time for storms to develop from the mid-levels, say 7-9pm.

Don't really expect anything locally. 

 

Edited June 23, 2022 by Sprites

[Chris.R]

First shower about to arrive.

Strong gusts.

Edited June 23, 2022 by Chris.R

[Justin1705]

Luton is very warm and humid all of a sudden. Suns been out and m sure cape values are all over place. Not too late yet warnings till 1:00am  featuring easy jet depart luton

Edited June 23, 2022 by Justin1705

[Supacell]

@Allseasons-si I am hoping to see some elevated cells developing from the south. Would be great to get a storm close to home.

[Azazel]

Boringgggg:p

[Dangerous55019]

No rain here as yet… But this is my current view looking south west towards the Clwydian Range.

[Ian Price]

Clouds now increasing to the East of here - over Snowdonia

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Supacell said:

@Allseasons-si I am hoping to see some elevated cells developing from the south. Would be great to get a storm close to home.

Some cells popping up now in a horizontal line south of the M4,these could have our name on them later on.

[Peachy]

Been some nice gaps in the cloud over the past hour or two allowing some nice warming and towering giving me much more hope for this evening. 

 

[SarahWxm]

Well this is a pile of poo so far. Just peeing with rain. I’m getting the dreaded feeling now I usually get round here and not going to get a storm now  

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, Peachy said:

Been some nice gaps in the cloud over the past hour or two allowing some nice warming and towering giving me much more hope for this evening. 

 

WOW that looks realy nice,...thank you

which way is this facing please?

 

 

 

Edited June 23, 2022 by Allseasons-si

[Cain]

Something bubbling up in the distance 

[The Tall Weatherman]

1 minute ago, Peachy said:

Been some nice gaps in the cloud over the past hour or two allowing some nice warming and towering giving me much more hope for this evening. 

 

Summers day beauty!

[convector]

This whole setups been modelled pretty poorly, met office had an occlusion hooking north to the east yesterday on their surface pressure charts. Now its a straight warm front followed by a broad occlusion from the south. Hoping as this lifts north there will be a flow of instability from france , while the long wave to the west brings a trigger. WRF 12z from yesterday proving more accurate that mor recent runs - from experience they do best the day before. Later runs will have developments starting late and not account for earlier details.

 

[Weather-history]

I think the needle on the "bustometer" is increasing. 

Rain returns on the radar are increasing but no sferics still at time of this post apart from a handful awhile ago.

[StormChaseUK]

6 minutes ago, Peachy said:

Been some nice gaps in the cloud over the past hour or two allowing some nice warming and towering giving me much more hope for this evening. 

 

That's better that is the type of convection we need.

[convector]

2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I think the needle on the "bustometer" is increasing. 

Rain returns on the radar are increasing but no sferics still at time of this post apart from a handful awhile ago.

havent seen any sferics all day