Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

[Turquoise]

yet another storm forecast for my area COMPLETELY inaccurate, last year in total we had 28 thunderstorm warnings, ZERO storms. This year 7 storm warnings, ZERO storms. Why put them out if they clearly don't know what they are talking about?

[Southern Storm]

Looks like Nodrog will have a decent video out later!

[Eagle Eye]

2 minutes ago, Azuremoon2 said:

yet another storm forecast for my area COMPLETELY inaccurate, last year in total we had 28 thunderstorm warnings, ZERO storms. This year 7 storm warnings, ZERO storms. Why put them out if they clearly don't know what they are talking about?

Because the risk is there so they have to do it, they do need to update them to tell people about the risk I think but this was on the unlikely end of the warning matrix today in the first place.

[Jamie M]

And some decent activity in the SE now

[James Maidstone]

3 minutes ago, Azuremoon2 said:

yet another storm forecast for my area COMPLETELY inaccurate, last year in total we had 28 thunderstorm warnings, ZERO storms. This year 7 storm warnings, ZERO storms. Why put them out if they clearly don't know what they are talking about?

The devil is in the detail for the Met Office warnings.  Look at the matrix, "Unlikely"

[Turquoise]

1 minute ago, Eagle Eye said:

Because the risk is there so they have to do it, they do need to update them to tell people about the risk I think but this was on the unlikely end of the warning matrix today in the first place.

fair enough but the amount of plans people cancel because impending storms are forecast and it turns out to be a glorious sunny day as usual. really frustrating.

[Thunderstruck]

Had a heavy shower pop up here pretty much out of nowhere, which has provided a couple of good rumbles. 
 

Bit of a bonus, as I wasn’t really expecting anything today, but clearly the ingredients are there.

Edited June 23, 2022 by Thunderstruck

[Turquoise]

Just now, Thunderstruck said:

Had a heavy shower pop up here pretty much out of nowhere, which has provided a couple of good rumbles. 
 

Bit of a bonus, as it wasn’t really expecting anything today, but clearly the ingredients are there.

what a surprise, despite SE not even being in the warning area they somehow get the storms again.......

[Azazel]

5 minutes ago, Southern Storm said:

Looks like Nodrog will have a decent video out later!

This guy popped up in my recommendations recently so I gave him a watch.

Incredibly inaccurate when trying to go in depth into the science behind storms and I really hated the one video where he was chasing a run of the mill shower and described it as a supercell.

BUT - I really do admire his enthusiasm and you can clearly see the passion he has for weather - a lot of young people in the comments on his videos too so maybe they’ll pick up storm chasing as a hobby which is obviously a good thing! 

[Mesoscale]

Estofex issued a 5%, for a few pop ups. METO gave a warning for localised disruption. A couple heavy showers may produce some lightning. Widespread thunderstorms won't happen.

[Thunderstruck]

7 minutes ago, Azuremoon2 said:

what a surprise, despite SE not even being in the warning area they somehow get the storms again.......

I am actually in the warning area, but still wasn’t expecting anything as everyone seemed to think that the sweet spot was up your way!

[snowrye]

6 minutes ago, Azuremoon2 said:

what a surprise, despite SE not even being in the warning area they somehow get the storms again.......

1 storm in Essex, hardly the whole SE, been absolutely glorious here

[wimblettben]

3 minutes ago, Mesoscale said:

Estofex issued a 5%, for a few pop ups. METO gave a warning for localised disruption. A couple heavy showers may produce some lightning. Widespread thunderstorms won't happen.

It did look like it was going to be widespread no more then a day or two ago though with all of those high cape charts being posted.

[Jamie M]

7 minutes ago, Azazel said:

This guy popped up in my recommendations recently so I gave him a watch.

Incredibly inaccurate when trying to go in depth into the science behind storms and I really hated the one video where he was chasing a run of the mill shower and described it as a supercell.

BUT - I really do admire his enthusiasm and you can clearly see the passion he has for weather - a lot of young people in the comments on his videos too so maybe they’ll pick up storm chasing as a hobby which is obviously a good thing! 

Aye I have to agree, called some scud a wall cloud and then a supercell and such. The enthusiasm is amazing but the knowledge needs to be scratched up slightly! Overall though, he does some good videos.

[ancientsolar]

nice shower popped up East of reading, nothing to torrential in 5 minute radar lapse

[danm]

Weirdly the SE had the storm warnings but we’ve hardly had any rain today here whereas it’s now p’ing down in the NW of England NW Wales. 

[Justin1705]

27 minutes ago, Azuremoon2 said:

yet another storm forecast for my area COMPLETELY inaccurate, last year in total we had 28 thunderstorm warnings, ZERO storms. This year 7 storm warnings, ZERO storms. Why put them out if they clearly don't know what they are talking about?

Because if they didn't and someone got struck by lightning and wasn't prepared or didn't know they can be done. It's better to be cautious and advise over a RISK, but to be honest mate shhh because if you actually watch met office they say not everywhere will get them and most places will stay dry. So please until your a qualified meteorologist shutup lol, people like you make this place negative and a bore. You didn't get some storms cool, it wasn't a guarantee anyway so don't slate the met office, blame yoursef for getting your hopes up

Edited June 23, 2022 by Justin1705

[Azazel]

7 minutes ago, Jamie M said:

Aye I have to agree, called some scud a wall cloud and then a supercell and such. The enthusiasm is amazing but the knowledge needs to be scratched up slightly! Overall though, he does some good videos.

for sure - it’s amazing to see high quality footage from someone willing to chase storms in the U.K. at any chance they get so I can’t complain really. Makes me want to do the same thing!

[Rich_T]

looks like a bust here, met office "warnings" are almost like the boy who cried wolf

[The PIT]

North West england the place to be right now.

One of the few times convective weather have got it wrong having the small risk area over western ireland and the south east.

Tomorrow doesn't look good either.

Edited June 23, 2022 by The PIT

[Chris.R]

Even latest WRF still says we should have almost 1000 CAPE for the next few hours so I don’t understand what’s gone wrong

[Eagle Eye]

2 minutes ago, The PIT said:

North West england the place to be right now.

One of the few times convective weather have got it wrong having the small risk area over western ireland and the south east.

Different forecaster, no offence to him as Chris is still a professional forecaster I'm pretty sure but I definitely think Dan does it best.

[Purplepixii]

I get that storm- loving fans are disappointed, but does anyone actually read past the abbreviated notification warning any more?

I’ve attached the Met Office “further details” attached to the warning - look at what I’ve ringed in red; “most” means the majority and the confidence chart is “unlikely”.

I know people are disappointed but the Met Office have done the right thing. Plus many of us enthusiasts know not to get our hopes up too far in advance & to watch the radar nearer the time.

P.S. the text says late afternoon/early evening. It’s early evening now and there are sferics on the radar. Just in someone else’s back garden lol.

[TJS1998Tom]

Some cells trying to pop up but doesn't seem like today will result in much now, still warning is on for another few hours 

[Dangerous55019]

36 minutes ago, SarahWxm said:Can’t see us getting anything more now. 

Yeah… Time for me to throw the towel in on this one. Another bust. *sigh*
 

Anyway… Before I sign off, (until the next wild goose storm chase) here are the latest rainfall radar and lightning maps, in the hope that they help some other members.
 

But for now, it’s over and out from Storm Starved in North East Wales.