Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

[Josh Rubio]

What/are there any risks of isolated storms for tomorrow? At face value the forecast looks dry, however the text forecast mentions the risk of scattered sharp showers developing, with the risk of thunder. 

[Darth Radar]

This is a clip of a twister just outside of NE Birmingham around Hams Hall / Wishaw from Jun 2020. Had a whole week of thunderstorms from dawn til dusk every single day that week, and you could see clouds billowing up from a cumulus to a towering cumulonimbus within 15-20 mins. The tops of the clouds were that powerful that next to none had any anvils, just huge cauliflower tops that looked like a living beast sailing across the skies. At night you could see the towering cauliflowers flashing red and yellow with the lightning, and so many Positive bright vivid red lightning bolts darting out of the very tops of the clouds to miles ahead of the storm as they approached. I will never ever forget the colours of the lightning bolts I saw that week after dark ️

All of the storms were either heading north or north-west towards Stoke because of a low pressure anchored in the south west of England that didn’t move for days. It helped that the temperature was around 25-26c most of the week too.

The exact same thing happened again in August, a whole week of non stop lightning and bolts raining down all over, many near misses and blown chimneys and trees across the road

 

 

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[The PIT]

Can't see any rotation so looks like scud to me.

A good day for Convective weather making up for the boob boo the other day. Esofax bang on the money forgive the pun as well.

BBC forecast poorly presented and other forecasts for more widespread showers and storms were smoking something.

Hopefully when they update or replace the GFS they'll fix the over doing of rain. ECM last night was poor as well.

[Supacell]

5 hours ago, Jamie M said:

Teasing scud there off one of the storms, have a slight feeling this 'lowering' could just be the formation of a shelf cloud if the third picture is from the same storm. 

This is almost the exact same view I had from between  Bedale and Catterick.

[Arnie Pie]

2 hours ago, Darth Radar said:

This is a clip of a twister just outside of NE Birmingham around Hams Hall / Wishaw from Jun 2020. Had a whole week of thunderstorms from dawn til dusk every single day that week, and you could see clouds billowing up from a cumulus to a towering cumulonimbus within 15-20 mins. The tops of the clouds were that powerful that next to none had any anvils, just huge cauliflower tops that looked like a living beast sailing across the skies. At night you could see the towering cauliflowers flashing red and yellow with the lightning, and so many Positive bright vivid red lightning bolts darting out of the very tops of the clouds to miles ahead of the storm as they approached. I will never ever forget the colours of the lightning bolts I saw that week after dark ️

All of the storms were either heading north or north-west towards Stoke because of a low pressure anchored in the south west of England that didn’t move for days. It helped that the temperature was around 25-26c most of the week too.

The exact same thing happened again in August, a whole week of non stop lightning and bolts raining down all over, many near misses and blown chimneys and trees across the road

436856E3-D06C-40F3-9D16-2770C4B37B9A.MOV 57.55 MB · 8 downloads  

 

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Another view of the tornado/ funnel from June2022 over Coleshill to the E of Birmingham

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=280603243291954

[Darth Radar]

1 hour ago, Arnie Pie said:

Another view of the tornado/ funnel from June2022 over Coleshill to the E of Birmingham

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=280603243291954

Wow just looked at that, it was rotating really fast! There was a fair few rotating wall clouds and brief funnel clouds that week dancing underneath the cloud based for a few minutes before disappearing back into the cloud. I think it was because of just how powerful the updrafts were in all of the storms that week. On the one uploaded, you could actually see the whole structure of the cell (regret not zooming out to show it now). And it was a huge towering cumulonimbus that rapidly shot upwards in altitude and plumed way above the huge anvil cloud immediately ahead of it. It rapidly sped up from a mile or so behind it as well to catch-up and completely merge with the anvil ahead, all the whole rapidly rotating and pluming upwards like a giant belter skelter. It was mesmerising, stunning and just pure luck to be positioned at the right location to see the mechanics of it all unfold. Also the camera only picked up the very strongest of the lightning flashes. It was actually flickering with lightning non stop every second between the super powerful strikes, and there was a constant non stop roar and grumbling of thunder.

[Turquoise]

well there was yet another storm warning for my area today...you know what that means, there wont be any storms. And today was no exception. 

Edited June 25, 2022 by Azuremoon2

[The PIT]

2 hours ago, Azuremoon2 said:

well there was yet another storm warning for my area today...you know what that means, there wont be any storms. And today was no exception. 

None on the met office now so you may get lucky

[Argyle10]

Anyone reckon I will get something down here? MetO has storms at 3 but don't know how much will happen

Edited June 25, 2022 by Charlie Harnett

[Chris.R]

Attempt number three today. Let’s hope it’s better than the last two i.e. more than drizzle!

[minus10]

Well every cloud has its silver lining...

Btw love the description Darth Radar gives of those storms...just like a literary video of what was happening...lets hope we can experience more of them...

[wimblettben]

Looks like we are actually under a 30% risk area today so I think a higher chance of getting something compared to recent attempts.

I could already see a number of distant cumulonimbus clouds with some anvils around when I wen't out about half an hour ago.

[Midlands Ice Age]

21 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Well every cloud has its silver lining...

Btw love the description Darth Radar gives of those storms...just like a literary video of what was happening...lets hope we can experience more of them...

Can I echo your thoughts on D Radar.

A brilliant poetic description  to  a remarkable video.

By the way  I Iive about 6miles from Coleshill and never saw a 'drop' that day.

MIA

Edited June 25, 2022 by Midlands Ice Age

[BrickFielder]

I would not expect wide spread thunderstorms today. Generally speaking we have the jet stream with dry warmer air roaring over head. Even if clouds managed to get up that high the jet stream would shred the cloud top. We do however have steep mid level lapse rates and plenty of wind speed shear. That means strong updrafts and updraft downdraft separation.

 

This looks like very squally heavy showers. If there is low level wind convergence then there is a slight risk a more potent heavy shower.

 

Even though we do not have much risk of storms there is a very slight risk of weak tornadoes due to strong updrafts and wind speed  shear. High cloud bases does mean it is very slight. Over all not really much expectation for storms.

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Just issued...

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 25 Jun 2022 - 05:59 UTC Sun 26 Jun 2022

ISSUED 09:21 UTC Sat 25 Jun 2022

ISSUED BY: Chris

An upper trough an associated surface low will be situated across Ireland and into western portions of Britain and help to produce a blustery and showery south to southwesterly flow during Saturday. Outbreaks of rain an showers are expected widely across Ireland and into western Britain during the day, with areas further east away from the low centre staying drier. 

 

The main risk of lightning today will be across Wales, NW England and S Scotland through the afternoon. Positive vorticity advection and steepening lapse rates will help to destabilise the atmosphere in these areas and with some sunshine, CAPE values of 500-800J/kg are expected through the afternoon leading to showers turning heavy with the risk of thunder. Some modest deep layer shear (35-45kts) will allow some updrafts to be more sustained and perhaps lead to the risk of some small hail and gusty winds, although the chief hazard will be heavy downpours. 

 

Elsewhere, with low pressure around scattered showers or embedded convection nearer the low centre will give the very low end risk of a few lightning strikes. 

Convective Weather

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

---

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

 

[Cain]

Looks good 

[viking_smb]

thunder and lightning in cardiff

[Cain]

9 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

thunder and lightning in cardiff

Hopefully it’s moving up the valley 

[viking_smb]

Just now, Cain said:

Hopefully it’s moving up the valley 

looks like heading towards you.

[MP-R]

Heard a rumble not long ago to the west. Looking dark that way towards Cardiff.

[Cain]

2 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

looks like heading towards you.

With some luck has there been much down your way 

[viking_smb]

Just now, Cain said:

With some luck has there been much down your way 

 

Just now, Cain said:

With some luck has there been much down your way 

according to blitzortung, quite a few strikes, 

[Cain]

14 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Heard a rumble not long ago to the west. Looking dark that way towards Cardiff.

Looks like it’s died off 

[viking_smb]

4 minutes ago, Cain said:

Looks like it’s died off 

it probably had a strop

[viking_smb]

more thunder and lightning