Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

[minus10]

12 minutes ago, northriding said:

I usually have a little grumble when the potential for storms fails to deliver, but I would snap someone's hand off for a good downpour, even without the sparks.

Sowed a few new lawns from seed in spring, but the lack of rainfall has made it quite the struggle to get them established. The gardens could really do with a thorough soaking.

Couldnt agree more. I have had problems when planting / sowing in gardens in getting the plants established in these dry conditions. Even with a good initial soak the ground soon dries out...desperately need meaningfull rain...at night would be good though..

[Dreckly]

Cape chart showing fronts

[Paul]

@Nick F has issued a storm forecast for today

Severe Convective Weather & Storms Forecast - Netweather.tv

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

 

[Turquoise]

Storm forecast once again for my area. I'm off to the beach as I can categorically state that means we won't get any storms

[Allseasons-Si]

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 24 Jun 2022 - 05:59 UTC Sat 25 Jun 2022

ISSUED 21:52 UTC Thu 23 Jun 2022

ISSUED BY: Chris

A slow moving area of low pressure centred near Ireland will help to bring an unsettled day across much of Britain and Ireland although drier in the southeast. A trough will move northeastwards across central and northern England and SE Scotland during the afternoon and this will help to trigger some heavy showers in the afternoon, some perhaps turning thundery. 500-700 J/kg of CAPE is possible by the afternoon across N/Cen and NE England and this combined with some weak surface convergence will likely aid in some heavier showers, with a few producing some lightning. Shear and mid-level lapse rates are relatively weak so convective updrafts may not be all that long lasting, however as they will be slow moving some locally heavy downpours are possible. 

 

Elsewhere there is an isolated risk of lightning associated with an east northeastward advancing cold front across Ireland and into western Britain during the afternoon, although many southeastern areas will end up staying dry. 

Convective Weather

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

---

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

Estofex seem to agree

European Storm Forecast Experiment - ESTOFEX

WWW.ESTOFEX.ORG

 

[Harry]

Good luck to all you guys in the north and east today. Hopefully you have more luck than the favoured areas yesterday.

For us southern folk there seems to be a small chance of lightning over C/S/SE England Saturday night - NMM has been consistently showing a swathe of MUCAPE crossing the region. Nothing remarkable but a possibility I’m keeping an eye on

[The PIT]

Interesting differance in forecasts between netweather and the other two Convective weather and Estofax.

Humid here but temperatures struggling due to cloud.

[TJS1998Tom]

Just had a very heavy shower here and still feeling very warm from the cell showing near lincoln. Big rain drops as well 

[Allseasons-Si]

Nottingham is brewing showers for here,be interesting to see what happens in the next hour or so.

[Supacell]

I have deemed today worthy of a chase. I may be expecting more of today than will actually happen but I am currently on the M1 just near Leeds. Stopped at services of course, not typing and driving.

[Chris.R]

I’m refusing to say how I feel about today incase I jinx it.

[Derbyshire_snow]

14 minutes ago, Supacell said:

I have deemed today worthy of a chase. I may be expecting more of today than will actually happen but I am currently on the M1 just near Leeds. Stopped at services of course, not typing and driving.

Looking quite juicy looking south towards Middlesbrough,Guisborough,NYM from where I am.

[Chris.R]

Too much cloud here

[Allseasons-Si]

I am surprised that that cell West of Bradford isn't producing sferics and strangely this one keeps on back building where as the other cells are just pushing north,i am still sat at home waiting for initiation though

if that W Bradford cell starts kicking off then i will intercept it from the south side by going up the M1 north then M62 west.

Edited June 24, 2022 by Allseasons-si

[Gray-Wolf]

Just noticed that Cell when I drove up to my Sons.....inky black out toward Halifax (Bradford) but blazing Sun here! (& very muggy!)

[Allseasons-Si]

We have lift off,...Otly.

 

[Supacell]

12 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

We have lift off,...Otly.

 

It's not showing up on Netweather or Blitzortung. What detector are you using?

[Scott Ingham]

15 hours ago, Wold Topper said:

Is that not the USS Enterprise! Beam me up scotty!  

Give me an hour!

[Allseasons-Si]

7 minutes ago, Supacell said:

It's not showing up on Netweather or Blitzortung. What detector are you using?

Lightningmaps but as you say,it's not showing on the other two

still sat at home for now.

Edit:there is some towering to my immediate west with PPN starting to show now on the latest return.

6 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Give me an hour!

That long haha

Edited June 24, 2022 by Allseasons-si

[Allseasons-Si]

@Supacell,showing on blitz now,also cell starting to pop up NW of Belper,sun is out here and feels ripe,i tried to take a photo of the towers going up to my S/SW/W but it is too hazy and a cloudy milky sky,i will keep you informed.

Edited June 24, 2022 by Allseasons-si
typo

[Jan]

Just witnessed a massive thunderstorm in Rouen France, looks to be heading out over the English Channel

[Jamie M]

Teasing scud there off one of the storms, have a slight feeling this 'lowering' could just be the formation of a shelf cloud if the third picture is from the same storm. 

[Supacell]

Great storm over Catterick. Lovely structure as it arrived, flashes of lightning (although seemed high in the cloud), thunder, torrential rain and  gusts of wind.

[P-M]

4 minutes ago, Jamie M said:

Teasing scud there off one of the storms, have a slight feeling this 'lowering' could just be the formation of a shelf cloud if the third picture is from the same storm. 

I think I've been watching this cell on the radar for a while now.  It's breaking away from the main bit of PPN from what I can see and has / is definitely intensifying as it moves north.  Not sure if it will maintain, grow or just fizzle out yet.  I try not to get too excited in these set ups lol

[Cakie]

3 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Great storm over Catterick. Lovely structure as it arrived, flashes of lightning (although seemed high in the cloud), thunder, torrential rain and  gusts of wind.

Hoping it gets to Darlington. I can see and hear it in the distance