Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

[LightningLover]

A few unexpected flashes visible in the channel to my WSW, not a bad 1st night of the hot spell!

[Southern Storm]

Many surprises in-store in the coming days, I definitely didn't expect these cells to appear this evening 

Here is a time lapse from this evening

Shared album - Scott Terrell - Google Photos

PHOTOS.APP.GOO.GL

 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Thunder here. Not very frequently but thunder is thunder! A few splashes of rain but nothing more than a couple of minutes

 Not enough to wet the ground!

[matt111]

Cowes webcam just now

[matt111]

12 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Cowes webcam just now

And this one just before 

 

[Southern Storm]

7 minutes ago, matt111 said:

And this one just before 

 

Wow, I wish I'd stayed out now just in case 

Radar looks like the cells are dieing out now, wouldn't rule out anything popping up later on though 

[matt111]

Just now, Southern Storm said:

Wow, I wish I'd stayed out now just in case 

Radar looks like the cells are dieing out now, wouldn't rule out anything popping up later on though 

That was looking NE from Cowes so don't know how much you would have seen of it. Certainly didn't see it from where I am although if you've got a better view in that direction than I have you might have done.

[Southern Storm]

13 minutes ago, matt111 said:

That was looking NE from Cowes so don't know how much you would have seen of it. Certainly didn't see it from where I am although if you've got a better view in that direction than I have you might have done.

Yeah, I was looking at the radar wondering which cell it came from, definitely nothing from this side of the island, nice capture though 

[alexisj9]

4 hours ago, Polar Maritime said:

Yes re-humidiy, That's my fear lol

The plume is in the lower air mass right, pure physics would surely dictate it would pick up moisture from the crossing surely. It's not an upper air plume.

[Callie]

Just woken up by some thunder to the north of me and then saw nice clear lightning! 

[Woodboss]

Some sporadic and unexpected lightning tonight. Very elevated and a little mid level instability. Currently 20 degrees here in Hassocks and up from 18 degrees just an hour ago. Very tropical feeling sitting here in the playing field!

[Woodboss]

28 minutes ago, Callie said:

Just woken up by some thunder to the north of me and then saw nice clear lightning! 

Saw a few flashes from this a short while ago from here!

[Stormhog]

Lightning caught me by surprise here in Hailsham. A few flashes and rumbles as it headed out into the Channel
Had a go at picking out the tower with my thermal imager, got some of it:

[alexisj9]

I've woke up to this.  So mid levels are still a little unstable around here, don't expect it to do anything though.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

5 hours ago, Stormhog said:

Lightning caught me by surprise here in Hailsham. A few flashes and rumbles as it headed out into the Channel
Had a go at picking out the tower with my thermal imager, got some of it:

 

 

DF15C7EF-3C55-4665-8AB6-33AFB5BFE244.webp

 

sorry I can’t make the picture appear properly or delete the post

Edited July 18, 2022 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[AWD]

Early in the day but there are signs on the radar that convective activity is again breaking out over SW England.

[Sprites]

29 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

 

 

DF15C7EF-3C55-4665-8AB6-33AFB5BFE244.webp 129.64 kB · 1 download

 

sorry I can’t make the picture appear properly or delete the post

It's Ronnie Barker 

[A Face like Thunder]

Interesting perhaps to note that when the temperature first reached 100F on 10th August 2003, there were also severe thunder and hail storms in the NE of England, with a record 49mm in 12 minutes at Carlton-in-Cleveland and severe flooding in parts of Teesside. I was in N Yorkshire at the time but further south, but we were still affected by cloud and thundery activity, leaving the day before, 9th August, as the hotter of the two days in the NE.

[Supacell]

16 minutes ago, A Face like Thunder said:

Interesting perhaps to note that when the temperature first reached 100F on 10th August 2003, there were also severe thunder and hail storms in the NE of England, with a record 49mm in 12 minutes at Carlton-in-Cleveland and severe flooding in parts of Teesside. I was in N Yorkshire at the time but further south, but we were still affected by cloud and thundery activity, leaving the day before, 9th August, as the hotter of the two days in the NE.

Further south in Derby I remember the thunder rumbling away in the morning but there was no rain. Probably as the storms were just away from me. I didn't start storm chasing until a year later so made do with distant rumbles.

[Norfolk Sheep]

6 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Further south in Derby I remember the thunder rumbling away in the morning but there was no rain. Probably as the storms were just away from me. I didn't start storm chasing until a year later so made do with distant rumbles.

Early-mid August can throw up some interesting stuff. I judged at an Obedience dog show nr Spalding on the 18th Aug 2002; started judging at 9.30am, out of nowhere there was almost constant thunder.  suspended the class 15 minutes later for 2hrs as it was too dangerous to continue. There was a short spell of torrential rain but the lightning was phenomenal, I don't think I've seen so many CGs. The weather was perfect after that for a couple of hours, then it turned very warm and humid for the rest of the day. 

I found this weather archive for the date

"By 0000GMT on the 18th winds were moderating and the last of the gales ceased during the night in the far NW. Over Ireland and W Scotland mainly light showers continued for most of the day, but further east a pulse of heavy rain associated with a wave on the cold front, and driven by a N-moving shortwave upper trough, was over southwest England at midnight, and reached Scotland near 0700GMT, with a clearance to mostly dry conditions following through Cornwall at 0600GMT, and reaching N Scotland towards 2400GMT. However, during the afternoon heavy showers developed over and to the east of Wales, tracking NE through the afternoon and evening. Earlier in the day, a slow moving line of thunderstorms developed suddenly across Kent and East Anglia, and this continued to extend N into Cumberland by midday, the complete line thence moving slowly east out over the North Sea. (Coltishall 28C, Moyola 7C, Milford Haven 64mm, Oxford 7.8h.)

 

[Sprites]

54 minutes ago, A Face like Thunder said:

Interesting perhaps to note that when the temperature first reached 100F on 10th August 2003, there were also severe thunder and hail storms in the NE of England, with a record 49mm in 12 minutes at Carlton-in-Cleveland and severe flooding in parts of Teesside. I was in N Yorkshire at the time but further south, but we were still affected by cloud and thundery activity, leaving the day before, 9th August, as the hotter of the two days in the NE.

I remember reading about that in Weather magazine or Journal of meteorology. The was a squall with hail that damaged some buildings too. 

I can't see anything like that happening with this heatwave, there's not enough moisture available.

Edited July 18, 2022 by Sprites

[Allseasons-Si]

CW just issued...

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 18 Jul 2022 - 05:59 UTC Tue 19 Jul 2022

ISSUED 09:05 UTC Mon 18 Jul 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

An exceptionally hot, dry airmass covers many parts of the British Isles on Monday beneath a substantial upper ridge. The deep, mixed layer produces very steep mid-level lapse rates, however the lack of any substantial forcing precludes any significant convection, however subtle moistening of the mid/upper troposphere will be sufficient for pockets of incredibly high-based (15,000ft) elevated convection almost anywhere during this forecast period. As such, random isolated showers will be possible, but virtually all rain may not reach the ground, and the depth of convection may not be sufficient for much in the way of lightning - but the risk is non-zero.  Perhaps the greatest risk (albeit still very low) is across Wales, the Midlands into northern England during the afternoon and evening hours.

On Monday night, the upper low and associated longwave trough near Portugal will swing northeastwards across Biscay, with increasing PVA on the forward side encouraging larger scale ascent while cooling aloft atop EML increases instability in an environment with strong shear. As such, very high-based elevated thunderstorms (13,000ft) are possible late in the night approaching south Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly - timing is a little uncertain, and it may be that most activity is beyond the end of this forecast period. There is also the possibility of additional lightning in parts of western Ireland into the Outer Hebrides during the overnight period, but confidence on placement/extent precludes a SLGT at this stage.

Convective Weather

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

---

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

Estofex

In the evening and overnight, some elevated and non-severe storms are also expected along the western fringe of the hot airmass between N Spain and Scotland, as synoptic lift increases.

European Storm Forecast Experiment - ESTOFEX

WWW.ESTOFEX.ORG

 

[tomp456]

We're going to get a monster storm that comes up from the channel in the next 2 days...I can just feel it.  

[Supacell]

1 hour ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

Early-mid August can throw up some interesting stuff. I judged at an Obedience dog show nr Spalding on the 18th Aug 2002; started judging at 9.30am, out of nowhere there was almost constant thunder.  suspended the class 15 minutes later for 2hrs as it was too dangerous to continue. There was a short spell of torrential rain but the lightning was phenomenal, I don't think I've seen so many CGs. The weather was perfect after that for a couple of hours, then it turned very warm and humid for the rest of the day. 

I wish I had been there! . But yes I have found August can bring some great storms. Hopefully this year does.

[MrNooo]

Well signs of convection to my South, some very large Cu, can only really see the tops in the haze, gentle breeze here and slightly warm