Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

[camturbo]

4 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

I'm not convinced we'll see a level 3 as that seems to only be issued a few times per year for the entirety of Europe, but I wouldn't rule out a level 2 as I've seen one for the UK before!

Just have to wait and see what happens to the location of the low,could be an interesting few days next week with intense heat and storms

[matty40s]

Level 1 for NW Spain looks good but delivers little

 

 

[Uncertainty]

Hello all

I don’t  post in this thread often but severe weather is my thing and I haven’t seen so much as a strike in nearly two years in cloudy Cumbria.

However…

Tuesday afternoon has the potential to support a convective parameter space rarely seen in northern England / SW Scotland…

Cape in the 2500+ range

Off the charts on the GEM

Plenty of DLS

Height falls ahead of the approaching shortwave to the S

DPs into the high 60s Fahrenheit

 

Only time I have seen this anything akin to this  before is the time @Ben Sainsbury was perhaps referring  to which was this event in July 2019

We had two fast moving supercells that day in N England and Scotland.

To me, hyperbole aside, this looks more vicious. Timing of the breakdown is still not quite nailed on so not calling it just yet, but a highly rare severe thunderstorm event is on the horizon as this quite remarkable spell of weather comes to an explosive end. If this is still the picture come late Saturday then all bets are off. 

 

Edited July 14, 2022 by Uncertainy

[Azazel]

Please don’t tell me the heat in the south is just going to fade out with a whimper again 

[ChannelThunder]

42 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Please don’t tell me the heat in the south is just going to fade out with a whimper again 

Yep, looks that way. We'll get a band of cloud that'll mark the transition between heat and cooler conditions, meanwhile the north will get supercells.

[Puddy Galore]

44 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Please don’t tell me the heat in the south is just going to fade out with a whimper again 

Well we had storms and much needed rain forecast for overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.  Now all seems to have disappeared other than a miserly light shower.  Desperate for some decent rainfall. 

[pad199207]

Hopefully some thundery activity for Ireland with this. Storm starved isn’t the words for it 

[Turquoise]

37 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

Yep, looks that way. We'll get a band of cloud that'll mark the transition between heat and cooler conditions, meanwhile the north will get supercells.

be fair, the south have had all the storms so far this year. Isle of Wight especially. Some of us havnt had a storm in nearly 2 years.......

[Row w]

Looking like the possibility of storms overnight Tuesday according to the BBC, could be quite interesting given the breakdown of record breaking (possibly) heat, there's got to be some activity from that surely it can't be a b**t ( I don't want to say it and jinx it)

[Tempest]

Dumfriesshire has an amber warning for heat, which I reckon must be a first. But what happened to the storms?! Thought there might have been a small chance

[tomp456]

Well it looks like the extreme heat will be going out with a pathetic wimper for us South Coasties. 

The thought of storms is about the only thing that makes the extreme heat tolerable! 

[Mesoscale]

I am getting 2012 Olympic Torch relay vibes from this set up. It was 35C down here whilst supercells where threatening to put out the torch to the north. 

[ChannelThunder]

1 hour ago, tomp456 said:

Well it looks like the extreme heat will be going out with a pathetic wimper for us South Coasties. 

The thought of storms is about the only thing that makes the extreme heat tolerable! 

There's a small hope on GFS, the infamous (perhaps) storm 'risk' charts have something coming into the south very late in the night.

'A fool's hope', to go all Gandalf on you.

[LeeKay/]

ECMWF - Via windy.com

This would be impessive!

[Zak M]

A stormy Tuesday night on the 15z UKV...

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, Zak M said:

A stormy Tuesday night on the 15z UKV...

And swings up towards my area by midnight onwards and the good thing is i will be on afters so i can pull an allnighter but i am not going to enjoy the heat through the afternoon though,i may bunk a day off

this still a long way to go but at least the potential is there and i suspect that there will be some cracking storms about.

[viking_smb]

23 minutes ago, Zak M said:

A stormy Tuesday night on the 15z UKV...

Too far out at this stage, I take it these will be surface storms so will die after midnight?

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

Too far out at this stage, I take it these will be surface storms so will die after midnight?

Surface based storms will become elevated storms through the night.

[NUT]

7 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Surface based storms will become elevated storms through the night.

Elevated? We're those the type of storms that we're truly incredible August 2020?

[SarahWxm]

Feeling quite hopeful that we’re going to get some clacks and bangs after the crazy couple of days heat forecasted for us in Wrexham. Hoping for similar of the last decent night time storm we had this time two years ago! I was let down a few weeks ago when it looked odds on, so please weather don’t let me down this time!

[ChannelThunder]

Talk of the Iberian low slowing/being further west over in the model thread, and it crosses the country on a more southerly track on the latest GFS. If that happens it'll likely mean a change in the current thoughts on thunderstorm potential. An awful lot left to be resolved on this one. 

[harrywhiterowoutdoors]

2 hours ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

Talk of the Iberian low slowing/being further west over in the model thread, and it crosses the country on a more southerly track on the latest GFS. If that happens it'll likely mean a change in the current thoughts on thunderstorm potential. An awful lot left to be resolved on this one. 

Does that mean another SW storm event? 

[ChannelThunder]

6 hours ago, harrywhiterowoutdoors said:

Does that mean another SW storm event? 

The UKV certainly looks positive for the far SW on Tuesday evening

[harrywhiterowoutdoors]

8 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

The UKV certainly looks positive for the far SW on Tuesday evening

Interesting thanks for that

[AWD]

03z UKV, as a broad brush view at this point, shows the potential for quite a widespread attribution of storm activity Tuesday night into Wednesday morning;