Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

[wimblettben]

20 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

If some of the heat modelled in FI comes off, I'd be livid if it didn't go bang spectacularly at the end! Some tentative signs of a plume on the models, just a case of keeping an eye out and hoping for now!

I think I would give up on the weather entirely to be honest if nothing was to come from the temperatures being shown on the models when it cleared away from a breakdown because there would be no excuse for storms to not form when cooler air goes over 30C+ or 40C+ temperatures.

Edited July 6, 2022 by wimblettben

[ChannelThunder]

34 minutes ago, wimblettben said:

I think I would give up on the weather entirely to be honest if nothing was to come from the temperatures being shown on the models when it cleared away from a breakdown because there would be no excuse for storms to not form when cooler air goes over 30C+ or 40C+ temperatures.

Absolutely, but sadly when it comes to plumes of heat being there's always the possibility of a weak cold front sinking down from the NW with cooler maritime air behind it and very little convective activity.

Hopefully not this time though! Mid-late July is plume prime time afterall! Also, there are some promising charts over in the model thread with Biscay cut off lows starting to show.

Anyway, I shall stop spamming this thread with wishes for now until we have something more concrete!

Edited July 6, 2022 by ResonantChannelThunder

[Azazel]

15 hours ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Hopefully with all the heat it results in storms and doesn't end up fizzling out 

Probably similar to last time when the heat just sort of 'went'.

Boiling hot and sultry in the morning then suddenly raining and cold. We don't seem to get explosive breakdowns anymore.

[TJS1998Tom]

7 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Probably similar to last time when the heat just sort of 'went'.

Boiling hot and sultry in the morning then suddenly raining and cold. We don't seem to get explosive breakdowns anymore.

Yeah. Usually storms are good with 3 days of heat but given this looks to be 10 days of over 25c I could see low pressure easing it off. I remember one time so much cape was forecast on models but then it all exploded across the North Sea a few years ago

[Chris Lea-Alex]

5 hours ago, Azazel said:

Probably similar to last time when the heat just sort of 'went'.

Boiling hot and sultry in the morning then suddenly raining and cold. We don't seem to get explosive breakdowns anymore.

I think we did in August 2020 if I rightly recall.  +30c temps, 2000-3000 cape, explosive pulse storms in the early evening.  Sadly they died off quickly because of the capped environment. I could be mixing up my summers though

[Supacell]

10 minutes ago, Chris Lea-Alex said:

I think we did in August 2020 if I rightly recall.  +30c temps, 2000-3000 cape, explosive pulse storms in the early evening.  Sadly they died off quickly because of the capped environment. I could be mixing up my summers though

You are possibly thinking of a different summer. August 2020 saw the hot weather culminate in big thunderstorms across a large portion of the UK from the south of the UK up well into Scotland. In the Midlands they lasted overnight and then more happened the following afternoon and evening.

Edited July 7, 2022 by Supacell

[chapmanslade]

At least initially there is going to be a significant lack of moisture. Dew points sub zero over France will not be conducive to any convection for most of next week. It isn't until after next weekend that we see any significant moisture.

[ChannelThunder]

This UKMO would surely bring in some absolute humdingers next Saturday night 

[Weather26]

All this heat that is being banded about for next weekend can surely only go one way.

 

 

[Guest]

9 hours ago, Weather26 said:

All this heat that is being banded about for next weekend can surely only go one way.

 

 

Well the air being modelled is extremely dry, but I was wondering if the odd super high based storm could pop up. 

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Awaiting the 06z GFS now, but the last couple of runs seem to be offering a bit more hope? GFS seems to be suggesting storms might get going on Monday evening moving up from the south west across across Wales, West Midlands, NW and N England. Still a long way to go but I'm feeling a little more encouraged by the recent outputs. 

[Lynxus]

11 minutes ago, multi cellular thunderstorm said:

Awaiting the 06z GFS now, but the last couple of runs seem to be offering a bit more hope? GFS seems to be suggesting storms might get going on Monday evening moving up from the south west across across Wales, West Midlands, NW and N England. Still a long way to go but I'm feeling a little more encouraged by the recent outputs. 

I can tell you now, This is almost guaranteed as i am on holiday in the east of the UK. Whenever I'm  on holiday, storms move up from the SW.

[Supacell]

A long way off but ECM also starting to show storms around Tue/Wed next week.

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

So the 06z GFS looks like bringing the storms in on Tuesday night and further east than the 00z. I'm sure this will keep changing over the next few days.

A setup like that would surely bring some pretty epic storms moving off the channel onto land where significant heat would still be available. Would probably create home grown storms overnight too once the moisture moved in. 

I'm trying to put a bit more commitment into my storm chasing, already been checking out some Travelodges down on the south coast, I might be tempted!

Edited July 11, 2022 by multi cellular thunderstorm

[Paul]

We've just added a MOGREPS ensemble viewer to the site, which includes MUCAPE. It's certainly showing some interest in storm potential next week - one particular run has over 2k of CAPE for London. 

MOGREPS Model Viewer| Netweather.tv

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

 

[NUT]

You would think with all the heat that will inevitably build it will go BANG could be some absolute humdingers around

[ChannelThunder]

Yep, it took a while but we now have a much more promising outlook for thunderstorms to see out the heatwave, right in the plume primetime that is mid to late July. 

[viking_smb]

its a couple of days out guys, see what happens first 

[wimblettben]

1 hour ago, NUT said:

You would think with all the heat that will inevitably build it will go BANG could be some absolute humdingers around

Hopefully it will be widespread as well and not just affect London and the southeast like its done all through this year so far.

[Harry]

I’ve experienced MANY very hot spells over the years (30C plus) which did not result in storms (even any rain)…so I am not on the “it must, surely!?” bandwagon

Very much hope there will be of course, particularly as long dry hot spells can aid fantastic lightning…not entirely sure I can cite the evidence as to why, but I’ve read it and witnessed it numerous times over the years.

 

Edited July 11, 2022 by Harry

[Supacell]

5 hours ago, Paul said:

We've just added a MOGREPS ensemble viewer to the site, which includes MUCAPE. It's certainly showing some interest in storm potential next week - one particular run has over 2k of CAPE for London. 

MOGREPS Model Viewer| Netweather.tv

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

 

This is awesome. Both the charts and what it's showing for next week.

Checked back on old posts and interestingly the heatwave of July 2013 ended with a bang for some on the night of the 22nd to the 23rd July. Nothing really showed up on the models until the 17th, just 5 days before.

[legritter]

Evening all ,well  lets hope we can all or most get some real humdingers of storms next week . Will be watching all charts like a hawk later this week ,all enjoy the summery weather ,i still read the posts and enjoy the occasional Sausage Bap , take care all .cheers .. 

[camturbo]

Are there any indications of possible storms breaking out next week or too early at the moment? 

[ChannelThunder]

On 11/07/2022 at 16:56, Paul said:

We've just added a MOGREPS ensemble viewer to the site, which includes MUCAPE. It's certainly showing some interest in storm potential next week - one particular run has over 2k of CAPE for London. 

Thanks so much! Enjoying having a look at this model.

Here's the latest ensemble for my location. Some useful MUCAPE being picked up Monday into Tuesday on many runs.

[ChannelThunder]

Some cross-model agreement (ECM and GEM 12z and GFS 12/18z) that Tuesday could be the one to watch for the potential thundery breakdown. I'd quite like GFS to slow down though as it has things getting going in the SW from as early as late morning!

Usual caveats apply to this, before anyone tells me it's a week away. I know that. I'm just pointing out the rare agreement by the models at 7 days.

Edited July 12, 2022 by ResonantChannelThunder