Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

[StormLoser]

25 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

Some cross-model agreement (ECM and GEM 12z and GFS 12/18z) that Tuesday could be the one to watch for the potential thundery breakdown. I'd quite like GFS to slow down though as it has things getting going in the SW from as early as late morning!

Usual caveats apply to this, before anyone tells me it's a week away. I know that. I'm just pointing out the rare agreement by the models at 7 days.

I was poking around the GFS for Tuesday and wondering why the Met Office finished their heat warning on Monday.  If the GFS model works out, Monday night and Tuesday morning could see some very high UK temperatures before the whole lot breaks down.

I'm no expert, but I think Sunday is too early for the MO warning. 

[ChannelThunder]

9 hours ago, StormLoser said:

I was poking around the GFS for Tuesday and wondering why the Met Office finished their heat warning on Monday.  If the GFS model works out, Monday night and Tuesday morning could see some very high UK temperatures before the whole lot breaks down.

I'm no expert, but I think Sunday is too early for the MO warning. 

When they released the warning on Monday, Sunday was looking very very hot too. Now, the main heat has been pushed back to Monday and Tuesday and the warning now covers those two days aswell.

Man, the storms had better be epic when they finally come!

Some hints of a second plume a few days later in the model thread. Plume storms twice in 3 days was incredible back in May, so somehow I doubt I'd get that lucky again so soon!

[NUT]

Does look nailed on for a big breakdown come Tuesday let's hope (could be us up here that could cop it which is unusual)

[Weather26]

As i said earlier in another thread, it does look Tuesday PM onwards is when the breakdown happens, rain or no rain.

[Gray-Wolf]

Kinda looking like a "Boom banga bang" end to Tues here in the NW ?

[Cheshire Freeze]

9 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Kinda looking like a "Boom banga bang" end to Tues here in the NW ?

Depends on the positioning of that low. The further N it goes the more likely N areas will cop the breakdown. I suspect it may well correct slightly S&E of the position shown on the GFS, with most of England and Wales at risk of prolific lightning.

[The Tall Weatherman]

Many models are turning Monday and Tuesday a historic storm day. Looks like Scotland will be battered by supercells ! If the models correspond that is !

[ChannelThunder]

Call me fussy, but not liking this trend to have the breakdown from the southwest come in during the middle of the day or even earlier. ECM has been getting closer to GFS in this regard when usually it goes the other way. After sunset please!!

[StormLoser]

The worst case scenario (and therefore most likely) is that low will do a quick bend left, track across Northern France where storms remain in the Channel, before exiting north east and providing a famous East England sailing ship experience....

[Weather26]

Well it looks like the breakdown maybe an extended event for some starting Monday and continuing into Tuesday.

[wimblettben]

I'm just currently hoping for the low to come in at the right time, preferably during the evening or night because the heat left from the day just gone will provide a big kick for the storms and it will deliver amazing lightning displays that people will actually be able to see properly because its dark enough.

[Supacell]

Unlikely to be storms on Monday despite the building CAPE being shown on the models and the very high temperatures forecast. The atmosphere looks to remain capped. Things can change at this range of course but I'm not seeing it with high pressure in control. 

Tuesday is a different matter. Should it pan out as shown, with low pressure moving over the UK, there is the likelihood of some big thunderstorms breaking out later in the day and overnight. Questions about timing, whereabouts or even if it will happen at all are still a way off from being answered yet. I for one am hoping that there are some big thunderstorms after having to suffer through 3 days of oppressive heat.

[harrywhiterowoutdoors]

On 11/07/2022 at 11:08, Lynxus said:

I can tell you now, This is almost guaranteed as i am on holiday in the east of the UK. Whenever I'm  on holiday, storms move up from the SW.

We might have to start paying you to go on holiday as some of us are lacking in the T storms department 

[JR319]

Think this is just a generic forecast from the BBC but the fact that they’re already showing thunderstorms for Wednesday is quite exciting 

[The Tall Weatherman]

 NMM12 12z is a literal bomb waiting to blow off with the interaction of the low. 6z GFS is looking MRGL Tornadic for northern Britain especially with that Cape (3000+) and all that shear. To early to tell yet but let’s wait and see !

[NUT]

ERRRRRRRRRR................Bank?! (for us up here)! This is absolutely surreal getting. Tuesday could be very very memorable

[Weather26]

Yep-Tuesday and Wednesday could be an absolute cannon for thunderstorms-and the temps go down by about 12-13C or so on Wednesday-Think we can nail on that Tuesday defitely appears to be the end of the heatwave, the question is when?

[ChannelThunder]

UKMO for 9pm Tues.

 

Not looking great for my desire for a night time light show, or even that much rain down here, but promising for those further north for sure.

Edited July 14, 2022 by ResonantChannelThunder

[DeepSnow]

1 hour ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

 NMM12 12z is a literal bomb waiting to blow off with the interaction of the low. 6z GFS is looking MRGL Tornadic for northern Britain especially with that Cape (3000+) and all that shear. To early to tell yet but let’s wait and see !

What would be preventing Southern Wales and the SW from having similar values and instead nothing when we are predicted to be in the low to mid 30s also? 

[Robbie Garrett]

Tropopause will be roughly 45000ft on Tuesday too.  Usually at 30000 odd ft in the Summer.  

Probably looking at the odd isolated African Style TSRA in excess of FL450.

[Stormhog]

20 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Kinda looking like a "Boom banga bang" end to Tues here in the NW ?

You must use the correct technical term; it's "Much flashy-banginess" 
If it looks good for the South coast nearer the time, I'll be set up on the beach at Pevensey Bay, or anywhere from Beachy Head to Bexhill, depending.
I've managed to get hold of a Sigma Mini Wide II lens, circa 1980's and in mint condition. Very much looking forward to trying it out.

[Supacell]

1 hour ago, DeepSnow said:

What would be preventing Southern Wales and the SW from having similar values and instead nothing when we are predicted to be in the low to mid 30s also? 

I expect it is down to the position of the thundery low but i'm no expert. What I do know is that at this range there will be changes from one run to another and the best potential will likely move around between now and Tuesday.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Could be some absolutely colossal thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and then overnight into Wednesday. NetWx MR just shows the volatile atmosphere over the UK, realistically 1,500-2,000J/Kg CAPE locally along with strong wind shear (both low & upper levels) and a heightened tropopause so cloud tops exceeding well above 40,000ft. Recipe for some nasty storms and supportive of supercells, but obviously lots of uncertainty regarding magnitude of CAPE and where storms are most likely etc.

Edited July 14, 2022 by Ben Sainsbury

[camturbo]

1 hour ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Could be some absolutely colossal thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and then overnight into Wednesday. NetWx MR just shows the volatile atmosphere over the UK, realistically 1,500-2,000J/Kg CAPE locally along with strong wind shear (both low & upper levels) and a heightened tropopause so cloud tops exceeding well above 40,000ft. Recipe for some nasty storms and supportive of supercells, but obviously lots of uncertainty regarding magnitude of CAPE and where storms are most likely etc.

Could well be some belters somewhere in the uk. Look forward  to seeing some svr warnings or how about estofex level 2 maybe 3. Surely something will happen after all of this heat eh!

[Ben Sainsbury]

20 minutes ago, camturbo said:

Could well be some belters somewhere in the uk. Look forward  to seeing some svr warnings or how about estofex level 2 maybe 3. Surely something will happen after all of this heat eh!

I'm not convinced we'll see a level 3 as that seems to only be issued a few times per year for the entirety of Europe, but I wouldn't rule out a level 2 as I've seen one for the UK before!