Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

[minus10]

1 hour ago, BrickFielder said:

We have a long wave trough dipping down across the UK which is bringing colder air loft. This will mean steepening temperature lapse rates increasing instability (Cape) but also bring down the tropopause (cloud top height).

Low wind speed and low level wind convergence along with orographic lifting (BWE possible) are thought likely triggers for convection.

Low cloud bases and slack turning surface winds could lead to very slow moving winds and very weak spout like tornadoes.

Models seem to give a signal for continued precipitation and instability into the night for some central areas.

Having looked at the Cambourne sounding from last night I am not totally convinced upper levels will give the forecast instability. Satellite imagery also suggests the long wave trough is more vertically stacked that modelling suggests (stretches further East). There is also a clear vorticity lobe out over the Bay of Biscay which I think will tend to force instability ahead of it.

 

Best guess is that many Eastern and Northern areas might see storms where modelling is not so keen. Very moist profiles and approaching vorticity from the south could lead to an MCS (Depends on whether vorticity begins to lift out or trundles further into France) .  Highest risk is localised flooding due to slow moving storms and due to steepness of temperature lapse rates through the zero degree isotherm some larger hail.  Storm training (In lines) could mean some places get repeated soaking and other places get nothing. Yet again not convinced by what models suggest in terms of coverage and placing of storms.

 

Thanks for that, very interesting...just wondered whether the high cloud from the trough to the east will hinder development of showers over the east/ south east? ....where we need the rain most...

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Thanks for that, very interesting...just wondered whether the high cloud from the trough to the east will hinder development of showers over the east/ south east? ....where we need the rain most...

There's a line of convergence (of sorts) running S-N between here and Lowestoft just now. But then, there often is, when the wind's in the south and there's a trough nearby. I'm nae overly optimistic!

[Shane]

1 hour ago, Dangerous55019 said:

I see the U.K. Meto have just issued a thunderstorm warning. 

Well that has cursed it then 

[Sparkiee storm]

Got a good feeling about today, looking good already.

Edited June 30, 2022 by Sparkiee storm

[matty40s]

51 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Thanks for that, very interesting...just wondered whether the high cloud from the trough to the east will hinder development of showers over the east/ south east? ....where we need the rain most...

We are under the edge of that and theres things growing under it.

[minus10]

9 minutes ago, matty40s said:

We are under the edge of that and theres things growing under it.

You have more sky...here just milky white which i fear will inhibit convection....

Edit...some convection noticed now south of London....maybe some hope...

Edited June 30, 2022 by minus10

[Arnie Pie]

55 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:

Got a good feeling about today, looking good already.

Me to

So We`ve already put the kybosh on today

just in case

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hn0czy0HWnc

 

[Liam Burge]

A few thunderstorms have already developed in the SW right on schedule. Bodes well for the rest of the day.

[Ashme]

Rumbles to the South of me, flashes to the East, here I am.........stuck in the middle with a good view

Edited June 30, 2022 by Ashme
Wrong direction ??‍♂️

[mike5900]

I think I just heard thunder

Yes it was heard some more. 

[Liam Burge]

1 minute ago, mike5900 said:

I think I just heard thunder

Yes it was heard some more. 

Yep, I believe I am also hearing thunder here!

[camturbo]

Yep the missus has just said thunder lightning 

[Peachy]

Things are brewing up around cannock and surrounding areas. 

 

[Petorious]

A loud rumble of thunder just as I got out of the car at home. Very typical summer thunderyness out today. Very stormy looking.

[TJS1998Tom]

Can't see much happening today for us, just a sky full of overcast cloud

Edit: That said BBC forecast suggesting heavy showers around midnight/early hours, whether they could bring something or just showers

Edited June 30, 2022 by TJS1998Tom

[Frosty hollows]

Eyes on that cell between Reading and Oxford.  Been building for a while and thunder getting louder

[Frosty hollows]

8 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

Eyes on that cell between Reading and Oxford.  Been building for a while and thunder getting louder

Now has a hail core but more thundery rain than storm. 

[Sparkiee storm]

2 hours ago, Arnie Pie said:

Me to

So We`ve already put the kybosh on today

just in case

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hn0czy0HWnc

 

Been checking it occasionally to see how things are looking and developing, always good to check as they always come close or hit up this end a little while after when things are coming in from the South, SSW . Looking dark on there now.

[wimblettben]

I have heard a total of about 7 distant rumbles here for the last few hours to my south from a line of heavy showers moving from west to east.

I am happy about the decision I made earlier going up the local hill as I got a good view of them developing in the distance a good while before they produced any thunder.

I also think had I not gone for a walk up the hill I would have missed it as my parents said they didn't hear anything apart from maybe one rumble.

[Frosty hollows]

1 hour ago, Frosty hollows said:

Now has a hail core but more thundery rain than storm. 

New cell formed behind decaying old cell. Roads are awash. Few booms of thunder, but no lightning visible. 

[Sam jackson88]

To the west north and east of Southampton, sky looks amazing 

[Emz by the Thames]

Thunder in the direction of Marlow, well outside the warning area.

[Buzzard]

Nice view of the Aylesbury storm directly to my SW. There’s an area further south that might get us in LB. Heard a rumble.  

[Row w]

Looking a wee bit stormy in the skies over this way

[minus10]

This is building to the south...is it linked to the activity to the south of St Albans?