Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

[Chris.R]

Next shower approaching me.

incidentally, an interesting Met text forecast for tonight mentioning heavy and thundery showers moving north in the early hours.

[TJS1998Tom]

Quite a few black clouds here but nothing on the radar showing its going to rain just yet, probably just showers though if it does

[Chris.R]

This next cell is developing a lot to my south

[carl1980]

Very dark to the south of me now

[Had Worse]

57 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Next shower approaching me.

incidentally, an interesting Met text forecast for tonight mentioning heavy and thundery showers moving north in the early hours.

I get the heavy bit but the thundery ingredient isn't happening at the moment. 

[Chris.R]

28 minutes ago, carl1980 said:

Very dark to the south of me now

Was JUST heavy rain here. Nothing more electrical yet.

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Chris.R said:

Don’t know why it had to stop producing lightning for 10 miles and then start again. I guess the Mersey did some damage

Probably just like the channel would for ours if surface based.

[alexisj9]

Seems to be something building  over France now, but looks like just general rain. Not sure whether it'll do anything else.

[Weather-history]

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Channel Islands have just got going.

[samadamsuk]

Hey all. This was looking SW from Cirencester about 30 minutes ago - was non rotating.

[Chris.R]

Something big coming my way

[Chris.R]

Rubbish, it’s decaying

[Iceman2606]

Widespread heavy showers around tomorrow afternoon with some of these containing a few flashy bangs for some.?⛈

Something developing over the Midlands on UKV 18z at around midnight.

[Chris.R]

Torrential rain here again for the past 15 minutes.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Looking at the Hi-Res modelling, it looks like there is some consensus around a zone of enhanced storm potential somewhere around an area Oswestry-Wrexham-Chester later tomorrow afternoon. This migrating E towards Staffordshire/Derbyshire tomorrow evening.

Edited June 30, 2022 by CreweCold

[Weather-history]

 

[The Tall Weatherman]

Estofex take on the Storms today>

[The Tall Weatherman]

Convective weathers Take>

[Dangerous55019]

Morning everyone.

Just to add to the storms forecast for today that others have kindly posted… I’ve just taken the dog out, and saw this lot brewing up nicely the other side of the Clwydian Range.
 

The way this year has been for storms (IMBY) I’m not holding out much hope, but it’s still nice to see.

And good luck to everyone with this today. ?⛈

[BrickFielder]

We have a long wave trough dipping down across the UK which is bringing colder air loft. This will mean steepening temperature lapse rates increasing instability (Cape) but also bring down the tropopause (cloud top height).

Low wind speed and low level wind convergence along with orographic lifting (BWE possible) are thought likely triggers for convection.

Low cloud bases and slack turning surface winds could lead to very slow moving winds and very weak spout like tornadoes.

Models seem to give a signal for continued precipitation and instability into the night for some central areas.

Having looked at the Cambourne sounding from last night I am not totally convinced upper levels will give the forecast instability. Satellite imagery also suggests the long wave trough is more vertically stacked that modelling suggests (stretches further East). There is also a clear vorticity lobe out over the Bay of Biscay which I think will tend to force instability ahead of it.

 

Best guess is that many Eastern and Northern areas might see storms where modelling is not so keen. Very moist profiles and approaching vorticity from the south could lead to an MCS (Depends on whether vorticity begins to lift out or trundles further into France) .  Highest risk is localised flooding due to slow moving storms and due to steepness of temperature lapse rates through the zero degree isotherm some larger hail.  Storm training (In lines) could mean some places get repeated soaking and other places get nothing. Yet again not convinced by what models suggest in terms of coverage and placing of storms.

 

[A Face like Thunder]

Good to see contributions from the North West and N Wales. Sunny but muggy here, and steam coming off our local green at 7.30am suggests that we may be getting heavy showers later. 

[Dangerous55019]

I see the U.K. Meto have just issued a thunderstorm warning. 

[Eagle Eye]

20 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:

I see the U.K. Meto have just issued a thunderstorm warning. 

Might want to charge your phone ready for the Storm later 

[Chris.R]

47 minutes ago, A Face like Thunder said:

Good to see contributions from the North West and N Wales. Sunny but muggy here, and steam coming off our local green at 7.30am suggests that we may be getting heavy showers later. 

We should have our own convective thread. Been saying it for years