Summer 2022 Chat

[Evening thunder]

The GFS 12Z showed it only 25C cooler on Wednesday 4pm compared to Tuesday 4pm in places 

Edited July 15, 2022 by Evening thunder

[SunnyPlease]

I'd go as far to say that 40c is pretty much nailed on now (90% + confidence) and I NEVER thought I'd be saying that, even a few days ago. Couldn't even rule out 41c tbh. This is a truly extreme and exceptional period of weather coming up which will be remembered for a LONG time. Despite global warming etc, I have a feeling that this upcoming temperature will not be exceeded for a long long while.

Record minimum is also going to be totally obliterated, perhaps by even 4c or higher.

Edited July 15, 2022 by SunnyPlease

[SunnyPlease]

3 hours ago, Mark Smithy said:

 

I spent the hottest April on record in Thailand, which is their hottest month of the year.

 

2016 right? I was also there then.

For me it was absolutely amazing. Sure, it was fiercely hot, but not quite the same sort of heat. As long as I stayed hydrated it was no issue.

[SunnyPlease]

1 hour ago, Jan said:

I regularly live in Córdoba Spain for long periods and have experienced temperatures of 43plus. Common sense prevails, stay indoors, close windows and curtains, keep intake of fluids up. My mobile phone has always worked, unless I leave it out in the sun. I have sat out in it albeit under a parasol with sunscreen on. From what I can see it is a couple of days, in Córdoba it can be 2 months, think the media is cranking it up

Couldn't agree with this more.

I know it's dangerous for the particularly old and infirm, but the vast majority of people will be fine. Stay hydrated, seek shade when possible, and make sure to wear 50spf. It's 2 days of extreme weather for this country, but very common in other countries. I take the potential heat issues for some seriously, but it is being very overreacted. And we better get used to it because temperatures that are coming up will be very common in a couple of decades.

[SunnyPlease]

1 hour ago, rwtwm said:

Sorry to pick on you when you're far from the only person doing it, but: 

"It's fine in this place that it always happens and they're used to it, so we should be fine here where it's unprecedented" 

Is far from the slam dunk logic it's being made out as.

But being not used to something and not being able to physically handle something are two different things entirely. Temperatures of this nature will be much harder to tolerate for people in this country because they're not used to it, but that does not make it anymore dangerous because of that fact. Again, acclimatization and ability to actually handle something physically without ill effects are two very different things.

A healthy person in the UK can handle 40c just as well as a healthy person in Nevada can in terms of bodily function, it's just one is more used to it so will suffer less mentally. There is not a special toleration tag in the body that clicks to enabled as soon as you've experienced enough heat.

Edited July 15, 2022 by SunnyPlease

[Wold Topper]

3 minutes ago, SunnyPlease said:

But being not used to something and not being able to physically handle something are two different things entirely. Temperatures of this nature will be much harder to tolerate for people in this country because they're not used to it, but that does not make it anymore dangerous because of that fact. Again, acclimatization and ability to actually handle something physically without ill effects are two very different things.

A healthy person in the UK can handle 40c just as well as a healthy person in Nevada can in terms of bodily function, it's just one is more used to it so will suffer less mentally.

Your whole post is full of contradictions and you are basing your assumptions from a completely biased personnel point of view! You are amongst many on here that think the next few days will be 'a walk in the park' time will tell if that is true, i very much doubt this outcome unfortunately!  

[danm]

Breaking the all time record and possibly the 40 degree barrier will be exceptional, but I’m not sure if this upcoming hot snap will beat the August 2020 heatwave in terms of the relentlessness of the heat that we had here in London. We had 6 consecutive days of temperatures between 33°c and 36°c, and 8 consecutive days above 28°c if you look at the two days either side:

It also was only a few days off the back of nearly hitting 38°c on 31st July. 

 

[SunnyPlease]

9 minutes ago, Wold Topper said:

Your whole post is full of contradictions and you are basing your assumptions from a completely biased personnel point of view! You are amongst many on here that think the next few days will be 'a walk in the park' time will tell if that is true, i very much doubt this outcome unfortunately!  

Never said it 'will be a walk in the park'. I have said the opposite multiple times. For many people, yes, it will be hard to tolerate. This is not the same as being 'dangerous'. As long as proper precautions are taken, the majority of people will be fine. Many of these same people go abroad every year on holiday in temperatures higher than 40c and yet handle them fine without issue. Why can't they in this country? 40c is 40c.

Again, I have to reiterate it, I am NOT saying it's not serious for the old and infirm - it is. But for the majority, a two day plume of extreme heat is not life threatening.

Edited July 15, 2022 by SunnyPlease

[TheOgre]

This heatwave is looking crazy but what’s it looking like after the heatwave? I hope it remains warm and sunny because 2022 will not be a classic if end up with weeks on end of crud from Wednesday.

[tom_f123]

1 hour ago, Wold Topper said:

Your whole post is full of contradictions and you are basing your assumptions from a completely biased personnel point of view! You are amongst many on here that think the next few days will be 'a walk in the park' time will tell if that is true, i very much doubt this outcome unfortunately!  

What exactly are you frightened of 

its 2 days of very hot weather for goodness sake 

[Mark Smithy]

6 hours ago, Jan said:

 

we'll be ok

A significant number of people won't be.

It's that simple. And awful.

[Mark Smithy]

5 hours ago, SunnyPlease said:

2016 right? I was also there then.

For me it was absolutely amazing. Sure, it was fiercely hot, but not quite the same sort of heat. As long as I stayed hydrated it was no issue.

Yes. And wow: fist bump

I went up to Kanchanaburi (River Kwai) and, wow, it was absolutely crazy heat there. Thought I was going to keel over and die.

If you're on the coast, fine. Inland? Horrendous.

[Mark Smithy]

3 hours ago, tom_f123 said:

What exactly are you frightened of 

its 2 days of very hot weather for goodness sake 

It's difficult to breathe in such heat and 48 hours of sustained heat, including at night, puts considerable strain on the body. It causes reactions in the body including dilation of blood vessels which you can read about below.

It is a fact that there will be hundreds, and probably into the thousands, of excess deaths. In other words, this will kill  a significant number of people. So if you feel like being casual about that maybe don't express it on a forum where most of us care about other people (and indeed ourselves).

Here's some advice from professionals:

Why are heatwaves dangerous and how does extreme heat affect the body? | New Scientist

WWW.NEWSCIENTIST.COM

---

Extreme heat brings serious health risks, especially for people who are elderly or have pre-existing conditions. Here’s what you need to know

 

 

5 hours ago, SunnyPlease said:

Again, I have to reiterate it, I am NOT saying it's not serious for the old and infirm - it is. But for the majority, a two day plume of extreme heat is not life threatening.

That's actually not true. Read the link. And maybe listen to professionals rather than posting something erroneous.

Edited July 16, 2022 by Mark Smithy

[Mark Smithy]

"

"Thousands of people could die in the coming heatwave, experts have warned, as the government triggered the first ever national emergency heat red alert with a record 40C (104F) temperature forecast for south-east England on Tuesday.

Health officials fear people living alone on upper floors of buildings are among those who could perish, as people did in Paris in 2003. Last year two lesser heat episodes caused about 1,600 excess deaths, according to official figures.

The level 4 heat alert announced for Monday and Tuesday by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) means “illness and death may occur among the fit and healthy, and not just in high-risk groups”.

The Met Office described the forecast heat that is coming from France and Spain as “absolutely unprecedented” and urged people to treat it like a storm warning and consider changing plans.

England heatwave: what is a level 4 national emergency?

Read more

Operations are being cancelled in parts of the NHS, some schools are closing early or shutting altogether and Network Rail advised people not to use trains that will be slowed down amid fears of buckled rails.

Record night-time temperatures of more than 25C (77F) in London and parts of the north-west are also forecast, placing greater strain on people’s bodies for longer, a key factor in increasing mortality.

“We could see 1,500 to 2,000 deaths just from this one period of heat,” said Bob Ward, the policy director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.

Prof Kevin McConway, emeritus professor of applied statistics at the Open University, said: “I think that, assuming the weather forecasts are roughly correct, it’s very likely that there will be hundreds or thousands of excess deaths from the heat in the next few days … It’s possible that, because there have been so many warnings about the coming high temperatures, people and businesses will be taking more precautions than usually happen in a heatwave, which could lower the numbers of excess deaths. I hope that happens, but I fear there will still be excess death on quite a scale.”

Public health officials are urging people to stay indoors with curtains closed and to avoid caffeine and alcohol and physical exertion in the hottest parts of the day."

England braces for 40C temperatures as experts warn thousands could die | UK weather | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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Level 4 heat alert announced for next week means ‘illness and death may occur among the fit and healthy’

 

[Mark Smithy]

UK heatwave could put people's lives at risk, Met Office warns, as 'national emergency' declared

NEWS.SKY.COM

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There is a 50% chance of temperatures reaching 40C somewhere in the UK, with the Met Office issuing its first-ever red warning for extreme heat. The UK Health Security Agency increased its heat health warning...

 

[Mark Smithy]

Unlike most holiday destinations and indeed many countries abroad, there's no relief from the heat at night with aircon. This puts considerable added strain on the body:

UK heatwave: Why 'tropical nights' could be deadly

NEWS.SKY.COM

---

Britain could hit 40C during the day next week, but night-time temperatures may also break records. A Sky News analysis shows how often 'tropical nights' have occurred in the UK over the decades, and why they are...

 

[Rammie]

Leaving aside Monday and Tuesday for a second. It's looking like a pretty hot and sunny weekend for a lot of places 

[Rammie]

Is there a way of finding out what the max temperature was July 19th 2021? Northants, or even London figure would do. Thanks. 

[Jan]

3 hours ago, Mark Smithy said:

A significant number of people won't be.

It's that simple. And awful.

I hardly think it is going to make a Day After Tomorrow type movie, yes it is going to be very hot but for 2 days not 2 weeks or 2 months. Stay in the shade drink lots of water

[kold weather]

8 hours ago, danm said:

Breaking the all time record and possibly the 40 degree barrier will be exceptional, but I’m not sure if this upcoming hot snap will beat the August 2020 heatwave in terms of the relentlessness of the heat that we had here in London. We had 6 consecutive days of temperatures between 33°c and 36°c, and 8 consecutive days above 28°c if you look at the two days either side:

It also was only a few days off the back of nearly hitting 38°c on 31st July. 

 

No doubt it was an unreal heatwave, and even though it was less than 2 years ago it does feel like its slipped from the collective memory, despite being probably the moist severe one week heatwave ever.

I suppose they are very different types of heatwaves to be fair, this is such an intense blast of heat but it does blast through, whilst the August spell was less hot at its peak week period but more stable.

[Calneee]

[MP-R]

Ahhh... good to see the hyperbolic guilt tripping back again..! It’s like convid all over again.

Here and now, a cracking weekend before the furnace unleashes, then post heatwave doesn’t look too bad at all at the moment thankfully.

[MIKE LEVITT]

come on atlantic,give us some storms ,this weather is as boring as football.

[NTC]

Louise Lear just posted new weather video and says Tuesday will be increasingly humid, so anyone hoping for hot dry air and sit it out might need to think again.

Edited July 16, 2022 by NTC

[Jan]

4 hours ago, Mark Smithy said:

A significant number of people won't be.

It's that simple. And awful.

I hardly think it is going to make a Day After Tomorrow type movie, yes it is going to be very hot but for 2 days not 2 weeks or 2 months. Stay in the shade drink lots of water