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July 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

Roger J Smith
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Roger J Smith Maestro

Roger J Smith

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
    • Location: Rossland BC Canada
    Posted

    (a) CET Temperature forecast contest -- averages and extremes

    ... all years since 1981 (v2.0) are shown for comparison

    ... warmest 15 are bold type, middle 13 are italic type and coolest 13 are underlined.

    ... CET v2.0 breaks ties by second decimals which accounts for 2013, 1995 not shown as tied here.

    ... averages also recalculated for v2.0 data.

     

    25.3 ... 25th, 2019, warmest daily mean

    19.8 ... 2006 (warmest July)

    19.4 ... 1983 (2nd warmest)

    19.3 ... 2018 (3rd warmest)

    18.8 ... 1783 (4th warmest)

    18.7 ... 1852 (5th warmest)

    18.5 ... 1976 (6th warmest), 1921 (7th), 1995 (8th), 2013 (9th)

    18.4 ... 1757, 1808 (t 10th warmest)

    18.1 ... 1989

    18.0 ... 1994

    17.9 ... 2014 

    17.8 ... 2021

    17.6 ... 2019

    17.5 ... 1999

    17.4 ... 2003

    17.2 ... 2010

    17.1 ... 2001, 1991 

    17.0 ... 2016

    16.9 ... 2017 ... average 2001-2021

    16.8 ... 1984, 1990, 2005 ... average for 1991-2020 (and 1992-2021)

    16.7 ...

    16.6 ... 1997 ... average for 1981-2010 (16.63 compared to 16.71 legacy CET)

    16.5 ... 

    16.4 ... 1982, 1996, 2008 ... average for 1971-2000 (16.38 cf 16.48 legacy CET)

    16.3 ... 2009

    16.1 ... 1985, 1992 ... average 1901-2000 (16.06 vs 16.09 legacy) and 1701-1800

    16.0 ... 2015 ... average for 1961-1990 (16.1 legacy) and all years 1659-2021

    15.9 ... 

    15.8 ... 1987, 2002, 2020 ... average for 1801-1900

    15.7 ... 1986, 2004

    15.6 ... 2012, average for 1659-1700

    15.5 ... 1981 and lowest 30-year average 1671-1700 (15.47)

    15.4 ... 1998

    15.3 ... 2000, 2007, 2011

    15.1 ... 1993 

    14.6 ... 1988 (tied with 1980 as coldest since 1965, and with four other years as tied 35th coldest)

    14.0 ... 1965 CET (t-11th coldest with 1674, 1685, 1713)

    13.9 ... 1919 (10th coldest)

    13.8 ... 1725, 1840, 1841 (tied 7th coldest)

    13.7 ... 1888, 1922 (tied 5th coldest)

    13.6 ... 1879 (4th coldest)

    13.5 ... 1695,1802 (tied 2nd coldest)

    13.4 ... 1816 (coldest July)

     8.7 ... 20th (1836) coldest daily mean

    ____________________________________________________________________________________________

    Enter your July forecast by end of the day Thursday 30th June without penalty,

    or during the first three days of July with increasing time penalties.

    =================================================================================

     

    (b) Optional EWP contest

    Predict the England and Wales mean precipitation in mm for July 2021. The contest uses the Hadley EWP version which runs from 1766 to 2021. Here are some averages and extremes as a guide:

     

    182.6 __ wettest (1828)

    140.7 __ wettest since 1981 (2009)

    _93.9 __ highest 30-year average (1773-1802 and 1775-1804)

    _79.2 __ average for 1766-2021

    _72.7 __ average for 1992-2021

    _72.0 __ average for 1991-2020

    _67.3 __ average for 1981-2010

    _57.4 __ lowest 30-year average (1971-2000)

    _26.3 __ driest since 1981 (1999)

    _15.8 __ driest since 1825 (1911)

    __8.2 __ driest (1825) __ second driest was 1800 (9.1 mm)

    _____________________________________________________________________________________

    recent values: 2021_90.5 .... 2020_69.0 .... 2019_71.7 .... 2018_39.6 .... 2017_105.7 .... 2016_43.6 mm

    ... ... ... ... ... ... 2015_92.1 .... 2014_54.7 .... 2013_54.0 .... 2012_120.7 .... 2011_65.2 .... 2010_67.9 mm

     

    Enter your EWP forecast with your CET forecast, same deadlines. 

    Maximum score 10.0, late penalties 0.3 per day.

     

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    Shillitocettwo Apprentice

    Shillitocettwo

    Posted
    Posted

      Am I first?

     

      Starting quite warm and quickly developing into a month with protracted warm or very warm even hot spells, with temperatures in the mid to high 30.Cs and 39.C will be reached at some point in the month. 

        So I'm going to slap a straight CET of 20.0.C on this although I feel this will be the prelude to an August completely off the charts which will go even higher!

       Dryish overall but what rain falls will mostly come from thunderstorms at 44mm.

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    Don Maestro

    Don

    Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
    • Location: Longden, Shropshire
    Posted
    1 hour ago, Shillitocettwo said:

          So I'm going to slap a straight CET of 20.0.C on this although I feel this will be the prelude to an August completely off the charts which will go even higher!

    Oh, I really hope not!  

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    Bobd29 Enthusiast

    Bobd29

    Posted
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Weather Preferences: hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring
    • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
    Posted

    Hi I will go for 17.7C and 54.5mm please.

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    Polar Gael Rising Star

    Polar Gael

    Posted
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: bright & frosty/snowy; summer: hot and sunny.
    • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
    Posted

    18.0°C and 55.0mm for me please. 

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    Don Maestro

    Don

    Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
    • Location: Longden, Shropshire
    Posted
    On 21/06/2022 at 09:00, Earthshine said:

    19.9°C and 20mm

    I had better purchase that air conditioning unit very quick! 

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    Earthshine Seasoned

    Earthshine

    Posted
  • Location: Exeter
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
    • Location: Exeter
    Posted
    On 23/06/2022 at 12:27, Don said:

    I had better purchase that air conditioning unit very quick! 

    Going for the scorcher!

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    DR(S)NO Community Regular

    DR(S)NO

    Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
    • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
    Posted

    17.5c and 60mm thank you please

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    East Lancs Rain Experienced

    East Lancs Rain

    Posted
  • Location: Pendle, East Lancashire, North West England
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, not too cold
    • Location: Pendle, East Lancashire, North West England
    Posted

    I’m expecting a mixed month with some cool and unsettled spells and one or two heat spikes. 
     

    Therefore I’m predicting 17.0°C and 80 mm.

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    The PIT Maestro

    The PIT

    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
    • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
    Posted

    I'll go for 17.4C and 40mm of rain.

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    Wold Topper Veteran

    Wold Topper

    Posted
  • Location: East coast side of the Yorkshire Wolds, 66m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storms, and plenty of warm sunny days!
    • Location: East coast side of the Yorkshire Wolds, 66m ASL
    Posted

    17.7c and 47mm please

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    Freeze Seasoned

    Freeze

    Posted
  • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: T storms, severe gales, heat and sun, cold and snow
    • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex
    Posted

    17.4c and 45mm 

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    Dancerwithwings Maestro

    Dancerwithwings

    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
    • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
    Posted

    17.6c....60mm

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