August 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

While we wait for the final CET numbers this report can be updated with only a slight edit possibly required after the fact ...

Here is an update on how consensus and the two normals are doing. The contest was scored using legacy CET values Dec to Apr and v2.0 (all that now exists) in May to August. These tables show the actual values, then the errors, and the contest ranks of the entrants who have similar values for average error. This gives an approximate idea of how the "robots" are doing although their scores might have added up somewhat differently as the forecasters with those average errors ranked differently in specific months. 

 

(a) actual values

ROBOT ______ DEC _ JAN _ FEB _ MAR _ APR _ MAY _ JUN _JUL _AUG

Consensus __ 4.8 __ 5.4 __ 5.6 __ 7.1 __ 8.4 _ 12.3 _ 15.1 _ 17.5 _17.4

1981-2010 ___4.6 __ 4.4 __ 4.4 __ 6.6 __ 8.5 _ 11.7 _ 14.4 _ 16.6 _16.5

1991-2020 ___5.0 __ 4.7 __ 4.9 __ 6.7 __ 8.9 _ 11.9 _ 14.6 _ 16.8 _16.6

contest CET _ 6.4 __ 4.6 __ 6.8 __ 7.9 __ 9.1 _ 13.1 _ 14.9 _ 18.2 _18.7

 

(b) absolute errors

ROBOT _____ DEC _ JAN _ FEB _ MAR _ APR _ MAY _ JUN _JUL _AUG ___ average

Consensus __ 1.6 __ 0.8 __ 1.2 __ 0.8 __ 0.7 __ 0.8 __ 0.2 __ 0.7 __1.3 ___ 0.90

1981-2010 ___1.8 __ 0.2 __ 2.4 __ 1.3 __ 0.6 __ 1.4 __ 0.5 __ 1.6 __ 2.2 ___ 1.33

1991-2020 ___1.4 __ 0.1 __ 1.9 __ 1.2 __ 0.2 __ 1.2 __ 0.3 __ 1.4 __ 2.1 ___ 1.09

SUMMARY: Consensus was warmer than both normals for all months except Dec (where it was between them) and Apr (when it was below both). The actual value was warmer than both normals in Dec, Feb, Mar, Apr, May, June, July, and August, so the contest consensus was correctly placed in Feb, Mar, May, (marginally so) June, July and August. In December and April, our consensus was too low relative to normal, and in January and June it was too high (not by much in June though). The overall performance of consensus is now considerably better than the 1991-2020 normal and more considerably better than the cooler 1981-2010 normal value. The lowest average error would have been achieved by any strategy of making forecasts around 1.2 above 1991-2020 averages (the results drop steadily from the 0.90 of 1991-2020 for each 0.1 increment, and the gain reverses starting at 1.3 above). The average error of those forecasts (1991-2020 + 1.2) would have been around 0.58 deg.  

 

(c) Contest ranks (will be comparing only entrants with eight of nine contests entered ... I will not add two or three forecasters missing two contests in these comparisons but some of them are also better than consensus and the normals.

optimal strategy (91-20)+1.2 (avg error 0.58) __ 3rd (richie3846 0.53, seaside60 0.51 (8 of 9)

consensus (avg error 0.90) ____________________t14th (two others with 7/9 also ahead, one tied, so t16 overall)

1991-2020 (avg error 1.09) ____________________t-18th (two others with 7/9 also ahead, so t22 overall)

1981-2010 (avg error 1.33) ____________________t-37th (no new 7/9 added so t41 overall)

(Average error is well correlated with total score but not perfectly so, however it can be inferred that contest ranks overall for the three "robots" would be similar to the above.)

Obviously playing an optimal strategy is a good one, if you can guess in advance what that is; at the moment, any optimal strategy between adding 0.5 and 1.5 to 1991-2020 would put you pretty close to the lead held by Richie3846, and also to the close second-fourth scores of Freeze, seaside60 and February1978, and using that  sort of strategy, you could be well into the top ten, even just using 1991-2020 is good for 18th place in average error. Using 1981-2010 gets you no further into the table than middle ranks (55 are ranked based on at least six of eight entries). Since average error is not the only component of CET contest scoring, it would take a more rigorous analysis to work out the points totals for these automatic type strategies but they are bound to be close in rank to the average error. 

An equally good (or marginally better) strategy is to predict consensus plus 0.7, this results in an average error of just 0.51, which is now tied with best average error among forecasters.

A not so good strategy is to wake up around May and decide to make decent forecasts (no further comment required there).

 

Edited September 7, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Earthshine]

Maximum CET so far this year to the 30th August was 15.13°C, which is a seriously impressive 2.63°C above normal and according to Hadley we would need to a maintain a maximum temperature anomaly at or above -0.17°C(!) for the remainder of the year (I think after a few warmer days at the start of September this may be closer to -0.2°C).

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, Earthshine said:

Maximum CET so far this year to the 30th August was 15.13°C, which is a seriously impressive 2.63°C above normal and according to Hadley we would need to a maintain a maximum temperature anomaly at or above -0.17°C(!) for the remainder of the year (I think after a few warmer days at the start of September this may be closer to -0.2°C).

Yes very impressive- and some in here are often keen to play down warmth by emphasising the fact that high minima have been the main reason for the anomaly.

Definitely not this year- the maxima have been impressive. August was a prime example of a month with very high maxima being responsible for such a warm month.

[Summer Sun]

Yet another month since the 'upgrade' where they can't get the final figure out for several days

[Don]

26 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Yet another month since the 'upgrade' where they can't get the final figure out for several days

I imagine the final figure will be out tomorrow?

[mushymanrob]

i wonder what the hold up is?...

[Don]

33 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

i wonder what the hold up is?...

It will probably update  September 1st 2023! 

[Roger J Smith]

Also no EWP update yet. 

[Scorcher]

Bizarre that it's taking so long- not sure this has ever happened before?

Also no update on a very warm start to September- it must be comfortably above 17C now?

[Roger J Smith]

This did happen once at least, I seem to remember waiting until the 9th to see final CET numbers for some month. It wasn't that long ago.

EWP is usually updated on the 5th and the people doing the work are possibly not the same, so perhaps two different Met Office staff on holiday. 

Anyway, nothing much can be done other than to wait. Agree Sep CET likely around 17.3 now. 

[Don]

9 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Agree Sep CET likely around 17.3 now. 

I hope it doesn't finish on that number lol!!

[summer blizzard]

Has anybody sent them a message, usually somebody does and they update. 

[Stationary Front]

Looks like it’s 18.7 confirmed 

[mushymanrob]

7 minutes ago, Stationary Front said:

Looks like it’s 18.7 confirmed 

funny, that appears on one source but not the main one.. at 17.35 pm tuesday 6th, its still 18.8 provisional to the 30th.
 

Met Office Hadley Centre Central England Temperature Data Download

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 

[Don]

17 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

funny, that appears on one source but not the main one.. at 17.35 pm tuesday 6th, its still 18.8 provisional to the 30th.
 

Met Office Hadley Centre Central England Temperature Data Download

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 

September has started on the warm side.....

August CET also confirmed here at 18.7C at long last!  

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/meantemp_monthly_totals.txt

[Roger J Smith]

That 18.7 has left 2022 in sixth place by second decimals for summer mean of 17.3 behind 1995 and 2006 which have that same value in one decimal. So you could say tied fourth if you wished. As I have mentioned in previous posts, I think that the one-decimal values are sorted on the basis of second decimals we cannot see and also I have noted cases that suggest that the seasonal means are now based on some other criterion than simply taking the average of three monthly values (because some cases show this is not happening now, I think it was in the two-decimal CET legacy series, and tied monthly values were always listed there in chronological order suggesting they were to be taken as ties, now they are sorted but in that process there can still be ties as there obviously would be for all years before daily data started in 1772). 

I am going back through recent posts to adjust monthly CET values where necessary, this does alter the outcome posted for the CET contest. No EWP updates as of current hour, maybe tomorrow morning. 

 

[J10]

Monthly

The extent of the heat this month caught out most players, while the average entry was above average it was not by enough.

Roger J Smith was out by 0.1c, Shillitocettwo and Thundery wintry showers were both out by 0.2c.

Seasonal

The overall top 3 was.

 Roger J Smith, February1978 and reef 

Overall

The overall top 3 after this month is

 richie3846 (1st last month)

 Freeze (2nd)

 seaside 60 (5th)

Excel and PDF to follow tomorrow.

 

[Roger J Smith]

EWP finally posted at 37.5 mm, this also changes the lead but otherwise makes very small differences to scoring, which I have edited back in the thread, but will move up to a more current position later today. 

[Roger J Smith]

Confirmed scoring for EWP contest 

Numbers in brackets after forecaster names are months entered when not 9/9.

Later edit _ have worked out that Thunder Athlete was once Thundershine, have merged scoring for them.

 

Rank ___ Forecaster ___________ Points ___ Avg error (rank) ____ Aug score _ fcst

_01 ____ The PIT ________________64.87 ____ 19.34 (2) ___________ 8.57 (t8)  ___ 32 

_02 ____ Freeze _________________63.69 ____ 19.37 (3) ___________ 7.84 (t11)  __ 30

_03 ____ Feb1991Blizzard ______ 59.22 ____ 24.63 (5) ___________ 5.60 (21) __ 59

_04 ____ Mulzy _________________ 56.89 ____ 24.08 (4) ___________ 8.78 (7) ___ 42

_05 ____ seaside60 (8) __________53.32 ____ 25.65 (6) ___________ 9.60 (t3) ___ 40

_06 ____ Bobd29 _______________ 52.31 ____ 28.20 (11) __________1.44 (40) ___ 90

_07 ____ Polar Gael ____________ 52.04 ____ 30.19 (18) __________ 1.08 (42) ___ 92.5

_08 ____ Reef __________________ 50.91 ____ 28.03 (10) ___________4.28 (27) ___ 70

_09 ____ Roger J Smith ________ 49.93 ____ 27.41 (8) ____________10.00 (1) ___ 38.8

_10 ____ weather-history ______47.73 ____ 28.57 (12) ____________ 6.95 (15) ___ 47 

_11^____Daniel* (8) ___________ 46.97 ____ 26.86 (7) _____________ 8.57 (t8) ___ 43 

_12 ____ dancerwithwings ____ 46.71 ____ 28.74 (13) ____________ 6.72 (16) ___ 49

_13 ____ Mr Maunder _________ 46.68 ____ 27.63 (9) _____________ 6.27 (18) ___ 52

_14 ____ DR(S)NO _____________ 46.20 ____ 30.79 (19) ____________ 3.62 (30) ___ 75

_15 ____ Don __________________ 45.75 ____ 31.03 (20) ____________ 6.50 (17) ___ 50

_16 ____ rwtwm _______________ 45.25 ____ 32.30 (24) ____________ 7.72 (13) ___ 45 (2nd)

_17 ____ Neil N ________________ 44.96 ____ 32.68 (25) ____________ 0.90 (43) ___ 99

_18 ____ Ed Stone _____________ 44.66 ____ 31.74 (22) ____________ 2.62 (35) ___ 80 (2nd)

_19 ____ ProlongedSnowLover(8) __ 43.99 ____ 28.99 (14) ____________ 9.60 (t3) ___ 35

_20 ____ Wold Topper (6) ______ 42.92 ____ 17.20 (1) _____________ 6.04 (19) ___ 53

_21 ____ Sleety (7) _____________ 42.76 ____ 29.01 (15) ____________ no fcst

_22 ____ Midlands Ice Age _____ 42.74 ____ 34.88 (30) ____________5.82 (20) ___ 54

_23 ____ Emmett Garland _____ 42.42 ____ 35.39 (32) ____________ 3.18 (32) ___ 77

_24 ____ syed2878 _____________ 41.95 ____ 34.60 (29) ___________ 5.16 (23) ___ 61

_25 ____ Godber1 ______________ 41.54 ____ 36.14 (33) ___________ 2.18 (37) ___ 82 (2nd)

_26 ____ virtualsphere _________ 41.12 ____ 34.19 (28) ____________3.84 (29) ___ 74

_27 ____DiagonalRedLine (7) __ 40.83 ____ 29.91 (17) ____________ no fcst

_28 ____ February1978 ________ 40.54 ____ 31.59 (21) ____________ 4.72 (25) ___ 64

_29 ____ Jonboy ________________39.54 ____ 34.06 (27) ____________ 9.18 (5) ____ 35 (2nd, 1d) 

_30 ____ Frigid _________________ 39.51 ____ 38.23 (t35) ___________ 1.62 (39) ___ 85

_31 ____ J10 ____________________ 39.49 ____ 33.59 (26) ____________ 1.32 (41) ___ 90 (2nd)

_32 ____ Jeff C (8) ______________ 38.87 ____ 31.91 (23) _____________ no fcst

_33 ____ Stargazer (7)  _________ 38.56 ____ 29.49 (16) _____________ 9.80 (2) ____ 36  

_34 ____ summer blizzard _____ 36.13 ____ 40.79 (40) _____________ 0.54 (45) ___110

_35 ____ davehsug _____________ 35.23 ____ 40.52 (39) ____________ 0.72 (44) ___102

_36 ____ noname_weather _____ 33.49 ____ 40.08 (38) ____________2.96 (33) ___ 78

_37 ____ summer8906 (7) ______ 32.72 ____ 41.93 (41) ____________ 1.86 (38) ___ 83

_38 ____ SteveB (7) _____________ 31.99 ____ 44.91 (43) ____________ 2.74 (34) ___ 80

_39 ____ snowray _______________31.30 ____ 38.23 (t35) ___________ 4.94 (24) ___ 62

_40 ____ Weather26 ____________30.48 ____ 49.08 (46) ____________ 0.36 (46) ___124

_41 ____ shillitocettwo (8) ______ 29.53 ____ 45.58 (44) ____________ no fcst

_42 ____ Stationary Front ______ 29.09 ____ 39.32 (37) ____________ 3.50 (31) ___ 75 (2nd)

_43 ____ stewfox (6) ___________ 27.63 ____ 42.80 (42) ____________ no fcst

_44 ____ Norrance  (7) _________ 27.28 ____ 37.91 (34) ____________ no fcst

_45 ____ Earthshine (5) ________ 25.95 ____ 29.24 ( --- ) ___________ no fcst

_46 ____ summer18 ____________24.82 ____ 46.57 (45) ____________ 4.50 (26) ___ 66

_47 ____I Rem Atl 252 __________22.43 ____ 55.41 (47) ____________ 0.00 (48) ___143

_48 ____ Coldest Winter (6) ____ 20.28 ____ 35.27 (31) ____________ 7.58 (12) ___ 44.3

_49 ____ Kirkcaldy Weather (4) _19.09 ____ 18.60 (----) ___________ 4.06 (28) ___ 70.4

_50 ____ Let It Snow! (4) ________17.75 ____ 43.35 (----) ___________ no fcst

(further info for August entrants only _ all have one entry this year)

_61 ____ Polar Maritime _________ 8.98 ____ 3.7 (----) _____________ 8.98 (6) ____ 41.2

_t63 ____ B87 _____________________7.84 ____ 7.5 (----) _____________ 7.84 (t11) __ 45

_t63 ____ Thunder Athlete (3)**___7.84 ___ 48.77 (----) ____________0.18 (47) __140

_67 ____ Thundery Wintry Showers __ 7.20 ____ 8.6 (---) _____________ 7.20 (14)  __ 28.9

_69 ____ sunny_vale _____________ 5.38 ___ 22.5 (----) _____________ 5.38 (22) ___ 60

_73 ____ Weather Enthusiast91 __2.30 ___ 44.5 (---) ______________ 2.30 (36) ___ 82

 

 

^ note: Daniel would have 50.67 points for 9th place and an average error of 24.75 mm (6th) if the late May forecast had been scored)

** ThunderAthlete was Thundershine in March, April and May and so has three EWP and four CET entries, still showing them in lower segment of scoring. Thundershine entered EWP in March, April and May but had 800 mm for April and I didn't enter that value into the excel file, as I wasn't sure if it was meant in jest or was an error for 80.0? Anyway, I only scored two of those forecasts and that 800 mm would have scored zero and led to an enormous average error. 

Edited September 8, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Walsall Wood Snow]

August 2022 is the first August in the CET series to record a monthly mean of 18.7c.

It is also now the new 3rd warmest August on record after 1995 and 1997 at 19.1c and 19.0c respectively, knocking both 1947 and 1975 (both tied at 18.6c) down to joint 4th warmest August's on record. 

[Roger J Smith]

Summer seasonal scoring leaders for EWP

Rank ___ FORECASTER __________ Points __ avg error

_ 01 ____ The PIT ________________ 25.93 ___ 9.40 mm ___ also led spring, after 20th winter 21-22

_ 02 ____ Mulzy __________________25.06 ___ 9.93 mm ___

_ 03 ____ Wold Topper __________ 21.96 ___14.07 mm __

_ 04 ____ Jonboy _________________21.72 ___ 15.73 mm __

_ 05 ____ Feb91Blizzard _________ 21.17 ___ 17.27 mm __

_ 06 ____ Freeze _________________ 21.12 ___ 15.07 mm __

_ 07 ____ seaside60 _____________ 20.48 ___ 15.80 mm __

_ 08 ____ Reef ___________________ 20.44 ___ 19.60 mm __

_ 09 ____ Midlands Ice Age ______ 20.12 ___ 15.80 mm __

_ 10 ____ Earthshine (2/3) ________19.76 _____2.15 mm __ 

_ 11 ____ daniel* _________________19.14 ___ 16.93 mm __

_ 12 ____ weather-history ________18.67 ___ 17.27 mm __

_ 13 ____ rwtwm _________________ 18.39 ___ 19.27 mm __

_ 14 ____ Godber 1 _______________18.10 ___ 23.27 mm __

_ 15 ____ Emmett Garland _______ 17.53 ___ 24.40 mm __

_ 16 ____ Roger J Smith __________ 17.30 ___ 25.03 mm __

_ 17 ____ Polar Gael _____________ 16.04 ___ 29.17 mm __

_ 18 ____ DR(S)NO _______________ 15.70 ___ 26.60 mm __

_ 19 ____ shillitocettwo (2/3) _____ 15.68 ___ 14.15 mm __

_ 20 ____ February 1978 __________15.17 ___ 24.60 mm __

_ 21 ____ Stargazer (2/3) _________ 14.57 ____ 9.65 mm __

_ 22 ____ prolongedSnow (2/3) __ 14.13 ____10.65 mm __

_ 23 ____ syed2878 ______________ 14.00 ___ 25.27 mm __

_ 24 ____ Don ____________________ 13.80 ___ 22.93 mm __

_ 25 ____ Mr Maunder ____________13.72 ___ 24.93 mm __

_ 26 ____ snowray ________________13.59 ___ 27.10 mm __

_ 27 ____ dancerwithwings _______12.51 ___ 25.93 mm __

_ 28 ____ NeilN ___________________11.95 ___ 36.60 mm __

_ 29 ____ summer blizzard _______ 11.78 ___ 38.40 mm __

_ 30 ____ Ed Stone ________________10.98 ___ 34.27 mm __

_ 31 ____ Bobd29 _________________10.69 ___ 35.77 mm __

_ 32 ____ coldest winter (2/3) ______ 9.38 ___ 25.30 mm __ 

_ 33 ____ J 10 _______________________8.96 ___ 38.27 mm __

_ 34 ____ virtualsphere _____________7.96 ___ 43.27 mm __

_ 35 ____ summer 18 _______________7.38 ___ 39.27 mm __

_ 36 ____ summer8906 (2/3) ________7.31 ___ 30.80 mm __

_ 37 ____ SteveB (2/3) ______________ 6.98 ___ 43.25 mm __

_ 38 ____ Stationary Front __________ 6.48 ___ 41.27 mm __

_ 39 ____ noname_weather _________6.10 ___ 41.27 mm __

_ 40 ____ JeffC (2/3) _________________5.92 ___ 33.50 mm __

_ 41 ____ Frigid _____________________ 4.72 ___ 48.27 mm __

_ 42 ____ I Remember Atlantic 252 _ 4.17 ___ 62.60 mm __

_ 43 ____ davehsug _________________ 2.56 ___ 55.27 mm __

_ 44 ____ Weather26 ________________ 0.36 ___ 82.60 mm __

_____________________________

those who entered 1/3 contests not listed. Polar Maritime 8.98, Sleety 8.38, DRL 7.36, TWS 7.20

and several others

[J10]

August 22 CET.xlsxAug 2022 Summary.pdf

Excel and PDF summary figures.

[Roger J Smith]

Three quarters of the way, this is the combined contest standings. For the CET, I show anyone not ranked in the main contest in the position they would have if total points were considered regardless of number of months entered, as that is how EWP ranks are generated. The difference is that the ranks remain as shown in the CET contest excel sheet and these additional ranks are decimal values between the existing ranks. The first of them would be Wold Topper who just happened to start entering four months into the contest and has done well but missed three to remain outside the official CET ranks. Coldest winter had a slightly higher "inserted" CET ranking of 15.5. The inserted ranks are always x.5 regardless of where they sit in the interval between ranks. There can be more than one inserted rank in an interval.

Also as in past versions of this combined scoring, for those few who only enter CET, your combined rank is your CET rank, but the column that is headed "combined rank" is only valid for those with entries in both contests. You're in the table however in the appropriate location for your CET rank. 

 

Combined _______________________ Ranks _____ CET/EWP

Rank ____ FORECASTER _________ CET _ EWP __ mean 

_ --- _____ Richie3846 ____________ 1 ___ -- _____1.0

_ 01 _____ Freeze ________________ 2 ___ 2 _____ 2.0

_ 02 _____ seaside60 _____________3 ___ 5 _____ 4.0

_ 03 _____ Feb1991Blizzard ______6 ___ 3 _____ 4.5

_ 04 _____ The PIT _______________10 ___ 1 _____5.5

_ 05 _____ Reef _________________ 9 ___ 8 _____8.5

_ 06 _____ dancerwithwings ____ 7 ___12 ____9.5

_ 07 _____ Bobd29 _______________15 ___ 6 ____10.5

_t08 _____ Ed Stone _____________8 ___18 ___13.0

_t08 _____ DR(S)NO ______________12___14 ____13.0

_t08 _____ Polar Gael ____________19 ___ 7 ____13.0

_ --- _____ Summer Sun __________14 ___ -- ____14.0

_ 11 _____ Mr Maunder _________ 17___13 ____15.0

_ 12 _____ Don ___________________16___15 ____15.5

_ 13 _____ February1978 _________4 ___28 ____16.0

_ 14 _____ Mulzy ________________ 36 ___ 4 ____ 20.0

_t15 _____ J10____________________11___31 ____ 21.0

_t15 _____ Roger J Smith _______33 ___ 9 ____21.0

_ --- _____ Mark Bayley _________21 ___ -- ____21.0

_ 17 _____ wold topper _________22.5__20 ____21.25

_ --- _____ damianslaw ________t22 ___ -- ____22.0

_ 18 _____ Stationary Front ______ 5 ___42 ____ 23.5 

_ 19 _____prolongedSnowLover_ 31___19 ____25.0

_t20 _____ SteveB ________________13___38 ____25.5

_t20 _____ Emmett Garland _____ 28___23 ____25.5

_ 22 _____ DiagonalRedLine _____t25___27 ____26.0

_ 23 _____ weather-history ______ 43___10 ____26.5

_ 24 _____ Stargazer ____________t22 ___33 ____27.5

_t25 _____ Midlands Ice Age ______35___22 ____28.5

_t25 _____ rwtwm ________________ 41___16 ____28.5

_t27 _____ summer blizzard _____ 24___34 ____29.0

_t27 _____ daniel* _______________ 47___11 ____29.0

_ --- _____ Duncan McAlister _____29 ___ -- ____29.0

_ 29 _____ Norrance _____________ 18___44 ____31.0

_t30 _____ stewfox _______________20___43 ____31.5

_t30 _____ Neil N ________________ 46___17 ____31.5

_ 32 _____ coldest winter _______15.5__48 ____31.75

_ 33 _____ virtualsphere _________ 38___26 ____32.0

_ 34 _____ snowray ______________ 27___39 ____33.0

_t35 _____ summer8906 _________32___37 ____34.5

_t35 _____ Frigid _________________ 39___30 ____34.5

_t35 _____ Godber 1 _____________ 44___25 ____34.5

_t35 _____ syed2878 _____________45___24 ____34.5

_ 39 _____ noname_weather _____34___36 ____35.0

_t40 _____ summer18 ___________ t25__46 ____35.5

_t40 _____ shillitocettwo _________30___41 ____35.5

_ 42 _____ SLEETY ________________51___21 ____36.0

_ 43 _____ weather 26 ___________ 37___40 ____38.5

_ 44 _____ jonboy ________________ 49___29 ____39.0

_ 45 _____ JeffC ___________________50___32 ____41.0

_ 46 _____ davehsug _____________ 48___35 ____41.5

_ --- _____ WalsallWoodSnow ____ 42___ -- ____ 42.0

_ 47 _____ I Remember Atl252 ___ 40___47 ____43.5

_ 48 _____ Earthshine ____________46.5__45 ___ 45.75

_ 49 _____ Kirkcaldy Weather ____44.5__49 ____46.75

_ 50 _____ Let It Snow! ___________48.5__50 ___ 49.25

_ 51 _____ Blast From the Past __ 50.5__52 ___ 51.25

_ --- _____ Kentish Man ___________52___ -- _____52.0

_ 52 _____ Thunder Athlete ______52.5__t63 ___ 57.75

======================================

(only those who have entered at least 4 contests are listed)

---------------------------------------------------------------------

 

On the subject of best combined forecasts, Midlands Ice Age had registered the only "double first" in October 2018, now I've managed to join him for August 2022. Also seaside60 made the list of combined ranks 12 and under (with 7) and that is tied 17th best all-time. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 10, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Earthshine]

This summer joins the prestigious list of summers that recorded two or more 18°C+ summer months.  Very impressive and a nice change to have each month warmer than the last when we've become so used to August being a bit meh.

[cheese]

On 07/09/2022 at 16:34, Walsall Wood Snow said:

August 2022 is the first August in the CET series to record a monthly mean of 18.7c.

It is also now the new 3rd warmest August on record after 1995 and 1997 at 19.1c and 19.0c respectively, knocking both 1947 and 1975 (both tied at 18.6c) down to joint 4th warmest August's on record. 

August 2022 at the Leeds Uni weather station had a mean of 19.0C - which is warmer than both August 1997 and August 1995 at the old Leeds Weather Centre. Obviously not official though. 
 

At Leeming in North Yorkshire, August 2022 was warmer than August 1997, and just 0.1C cooler than August 1995. 
 

I’m sure a few stations across the UK had their warmest August on record.

Edited September 10, 2022 by cheese