August 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

This list for July-August rainfall is way back in the thread so I moved it to here with the estimated value for Aug 2022 added:

The lowest July-August total rainfalls since 1766 are these:

YEAR ____ JUL __ AUG ____ Total

1995 ____ 37.6 ___ 9.1 ____ 46.7 mm

1955 ____ 26.1 __ 27.0 ____ 53.1 mm

1976 ____ 30.1 __ 25.2 ____ 55.3 mm

2022 ____ 22.5 __ 38.5 ____ 61.0 mm

1869 ____ 21.6 __ 43.1 ____ 64.7 mm

1800 _____ 9.1 __ 55.7 ____ 64.8 mm

1864 ____ 26.9 __ 39.0 ____ 65.9 mm

1911 ____ 15.8 __ 54.9 ____ 70.7 mm

1818 ____ 50.4 __ 21.0 ____ 71.4 mm

1983 ____ 39.2 __ 33.3 ____ 72.5 mm

1803 ____ 30.3 __ 44.2 ____ 74.5 mm

1913 ____ 32.6 __ 41.9 ____ 74.5 mm

1780 ____ 51.4 __ 24.3 ____ 75.7 mm

1995 and 1976 clearly the king summers on the dry and warm front. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 18.7C +2.1C above normal. Rainfall unchanged

[Summer8906]

Been out of the UK but: it's remarkable how warm this summer is looking given that (from what I can make out) it has not been an especially sunny summer, perhaps significantly less so than not only 1976 but also years like 1983, 1989, and 1995.

Has it been the case that it was only really sunny between about June 13-22, July 4-18 and August 5-14, and otherwise generally cloudy? A lot of dry, warm but cloudy anticyclonic westerlies I guess.

How is August's sunshine looking? From what I'm reading on here I would guess that much of the country is only on about average sunshine and some places to the north and west, perhaps below average.

Edited August 28, 2022 by Summer8906

[Summer Sun]

19.0c to the 27th

3.2c above the 61 to 90 average
2.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[BruenSryan]

3 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

Been out of the UK but: it's remarkable how warm this summer is looking given that (from what I can make out) it has not been an especially sunny summer, perhaps significantly less so than not only 1976 but also years like 1983, 1989, and 1995.

Has it been the case that it was only really sunny between about June 13-22, July 4-18 and August 5-14, and otherwise generally cloudy? A lot of dry, warm but cloudy anticyclonic westerlies I guess.

How is August's sunshine looking? From what I'm reading on here I would guess that much of the country is only on about average sunshine and some places to the north and west, perhaps below average.

On track to be the 4th sunniest in the UK on record (beaten by 1947, 1995 and 1976). The graphic below via here takes current sun hrs per day avg and fills in remaining days to get an estimated final total so not to be taken literally but no getting away from the fact that this will be up there with the sunniest on record. 

Hypothetically if 203.8 hrs were the final total for August 2022, the UK as a whole will have had 579.0 hrs in Summer 2022 which puts it as the 11th sunniest since 1919. However, Northern Ireland using the estimated August total will have had a relatively cloudy summer but not exceptionally so due to a sunny August but June and especially July were notably cloudy. For England, it is looking like the first summer since 1989 where all 3 meteorological summer months have had 200 hours or greater and the 5th/6th sunniest on record since 1919. These stats are prone to error due to the August estimation.

Edited August 28, 2022 by BruenSryan

[Earthshine]

Maximum CET currently at 24.4°C which is the same as 1947 but behind 1995 (25.1°C).  I think with warmer days ahead we will just about pip 1947.

https://twitter.com/Pheofhair2/status/1563891841120063488?t=Ez8Mbh-2W-dd2ezOqY9yFQ&s=19

[reef]

11 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

Been out of the UK but: it's remarkable how warm this summer is looking given that (from what I can make out) it has not been an especially sunny summer, perhaps significantly less so than not only 1976 but also years like 1983, 1989, and 1995.

Has it been the case that it was only really sunny between about June 13-22, July 4-18 and August 5-14, and otherwise generally cloudy? A lot of dry, warm but cloudy anticyclonic westerlies I guess.

How is August's sunshine looking? From what I'm reading on here I would guess that much of the country is only on about average sunshine and some places to the north and west, perhaps below average.

I can only speak for here, but this is the first summer since 1989 where all three summer months have had 200+ hours of sunshine. This comes after a Spring where all three months were 190+hours and a January and February with 100+ hours. Its been a remarkable year for sunshine.

There's an chance it'll be the sunniest summer on record for us, but it'll be touch and go.

[Summer8906]

16 hours ago, BruenSryan said:

On track to be the 4th sunniest in the UK on record (beaten by 1947, 1995 and 1976). The graphic below via here takes current sun hrs per day avg and fills in remaining days to get an estimated final total so not to be taken literally but no getting away from the fact that this will be up there with the sunniest on record. 

Hypothetically if 203.8 hrs were the final total for August 2022, the UK as a whole will have had 579.0 hrs in Summer 2022 which puts it as the 11th sunniest since 1919. However, Northern Ireland using the estimated August total will have had a relatively cloudy summer but not exceptionally so due to a sunny August but June and especially July were notably cloudy. For England, it is looking like the first summer since 1989 where all 3 meteorological summer months have had 200 hours or greater and the 5th/6th sunniest on record since 1919. These stats are prone to error due to the August estimation.

 

OK thanks for that.

Was basing my suggestions of cloudiness on a lot of comments on the forum about cloudiness away from the notable hot spells, so was getting the impression it had been distinctly cloudy between around July 20 and August 4, and again since August 15.

This is the first good summer in the UK I have not experienced first-hand since 1976 (well actually I did experience 1976 but wasn't old enough to have memories of it) so am relying on second-hand accounts.

Edited August 29, 2022 by Summer8906

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 18.6C +2.0C above average. Rainfall unchanged at 78.9nn 114.7% of the monthly average

Looking at an 18.4C to 18.5 C finish here.

[Roger J Smith]

There was no CET update but the max was around 24 and the min around 12, for a daily mean of 18.0 which may have nudged the running value down to 18.9 or possibly just a weaker 19.0. Today looks to be around 21,15 (for 18), 30th similar and 31st could average 19, so overall it looks like a finish on 18.8 or 18.9 to me. That means basically the table of forecasts is the order of finish with the highest forecast being 18.9 C. 

There was not much further precip in the past two days, and EWP is probably still on 37.0 mm at this point. GFS indicates 37.2 to 37.5 mm likely outcome for EWP with just scattered small amounts in the northeast. 

Edited August 29, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Roger J Smith]

 

Confirmed CET and EWP orders of finish

to be adjusted when final values are known. These are based on 18.7 C and 37.5 mm (both now confirmed) ... the numbers in brackets are the order of entry to determine points for CET and EWP. ... EWP ranks are shown either as part of the best combined stats (the second number in the pair) or if not in the top ten of that, separately for top 20 EWP ranks. For the purposes of determining best combined the CET order of finish is jogged by one rank per late day which only applies to one entry this month (Jonboy). The order shown does not follow that same jog. 

rank _ CET _ EWP _ FORECASTER (order of entry) ____ best combined info

_01 __ 18.6 _ 38.8 _ Roger J Smith ( 15 ) _______________ best combined (1, 1) 

_02 __ 18.9 _ --- --- _shillitocettwo ( 7 ) ________________ no EWP numerical forecast but verbal comment was good

_03 __ 18.5 _ 28.9 _ Thundery Wintry Showers ( 55 ) __t5th best combined (3,14)

_04 __ 18.4 _ 40.0 _ seaside60 ( 39 ) __________________ 2nd best combined (4, t3) 

_05 __ 18.3 _ 45.0 _ B87 ( 1 ) __________________________ 4th best combined (5,t11)

_06 __ 18.2 _ 32.0 _ The PIT ( 14 ) _____________________ 3rd best combined (6, t8) 

_07 __ 18.2 _ 80.0 _ SteveB ( 20 ) ______________________

_08 __ 18.1 _ 77.0 _ Emmett Garland ( 35 ) ____________

_09 __ 18.0 _ --- --- _ Earthshine ( 5 ) ___________________

_10 __ 17.9 _ 53.0 _ Wold Topper ( 9 ) _________________ 19th EWP

_11 __ 17.9 _ 41.2 _ Polar Maritime ( 16 ) ______________t5th best combined (11, 6) 

_12 __ 17.9 _ 60.0 _ sunny_vale ( 18 ) __________________

_13 __ 17.9 _ 44.3 _ coldest winter ( 19 ) _______________10th best combined (13, 10)

_14 __ 17.9 _ --- --- _Summer Sun ( 23 ) ________________

_16 __ 17.9 _ 35.0 _ jonboy ( L1-1 ) ____________________ 9th best combined (16, 5) 

_15 __ 17.8 _ 36.0 _ Stargazer ( 25 ) ___________________t5th best combined (15, 2) 

_17 __ 17.8 _ 35.0 _ prolongedSnowLover ( 48 ) ______ 8th best combined (17, t3) 

_18 __ 17.8 _ 52.0 _ Mr Maunder ( 53 ) ________________ 18th EWP

_19 __ 17.7 _ 70.0 _ Reef ( 24 ) _________________________ 

_20 __ 17.7 _ 59.0 _ Feb1991Blizzard ( 36 ) ____________

_21 __ 17.7 _ 50.0 _ Don ( 41 ) _________________________ 17th EWP

_22 __ 17.6 _ 82.0 _ Weather Enthusiast91 ( 21 ) _______

_23 __ 17.6 _ 80.0 _ Ed Stone ( 27 ) _____________________

_24 __ 17.6 _ --- --- _Duncan McAlister ( 51 ) ___________ 

_25 __ 17.5 _ 90.0 _ Bobd29 ( 4 ) _______________________

_26 __ 17.5 _ 30.0 _ freeze ( 32 ) _______________________ t11th EWP

_27 __ 17.5 _ 75.0 _ DR(S)NO ( 38 ) _____________________

_28 __ 17.4 _ --- --- _Richie3846 ( 22 ) __________________ 

_29 __ 17.4 _ 85.0 _ Frigid ( 34 ) ________________________

_30 __ 17.4 _ 64.0 _ February1978 ( 52 ) _______________ 

_(28)_ 17.4 _ 63.0 _ consensus ________________________

_31 __ 17.3 _ 49.0 _ dancerwithwings ( 8 ) _____________ 16th EWP

_32 __ 17.3 _ 45.0 _ rwtwm ( 29 ) ______________________ 13th EWP

_33 __ 17.3 _ 47.0 _ Weather-history ( 37 ) ____________ 15th EWP

_34 __ 17.2 _ 75.0 _ Stationary Front ( 50 ) _____________

_35 __ 17.1 _ 66.0 _ Summer18 ( 3 ) ____________________

_36 __ 17.1 _ --- ---_ Mark Bayley ( 44 ) __________________

_37 __ 17.0 _ 92.5 _ Polar Gael ( 6 ) _____________________

_38 __ 17.0 _ 90.0 _ J 10 ( 47 ) ___________________________

_39 __ 16.9 _ 74.0 _ virtualsphere ( 17 ) _________________

_40 __ 16.9 _ --- --- _Walsall wood snow ( 30 ) ___________

_41 __ 16.9 _ 54.0 _ Midlands Ice Age ( 33 ) _____________ 20th EWP

_42 __ 16.9 _ 42.0 _ Mulzy ( 43 ) _________________________ 7th EWP

_43 __ 16.8 _ 62.0 _ snowray ( 13 ) ______________________

_44 __ 16.8 _110.0_ summer blizzard ( 28 ) _____________

_45 __ 16.8 _ 82.0 _ Godber1 ( 42 ) ______________________

_46 __ 16.8 _ --- ---_ damianslaw ( 46 ) ___________________

_47 __ 16.7 _ 83.0 _ summer8906 ( 26 ) _________________

_(48a)_ 16.6 _ 82.3 ___ average for 1991-2020 _____________

_(48b)_ 16.5 _ 75.6 ___ average for 1981-2010 ______________

_48 __ 16.5 _ 61.0 _ syed2878 ( 31 ) ____________________

_49 __ 16.5 _ 70.4 _ Kirkcaldy Weather ( 45 ) ___________

_50 __ 16.5 _ 43.0 _ daniel* ( 54 ) _______________________ 9th EWP

_52 __ 16.4 _ --- ---_ Kentish Man ( L1-2 ) ________________

_51 __ 16.3 _143.0_ I Remember Atlantic 252 ( 12 ) _

_53 __ 16.1 _ 99.0 _ NeilN ( 11 ) ____________________

_54 __ 16.0 _ 78.0 _ noname_weather ( 49 ) ________

_55 __ 15.8 _124.0_Weather26 ( 2 ) ________________

_56 __ 15.6 _102.0_davehsug ( 40 ) ________________

_57 __ 15.3 _140.0_ Thunder Athlete ( 10 ) ________

 

CET scoring and ranks to be confirmed by J10, this order of finish is based on the table of forecasts. 

Edited September 7, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 18.6C +2.1C above normal. Rainfall up to 79mm 114.8% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

18.8c to the 29th

3.1c above the 61 to 90 average
2.3c above the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

The CET was also 18.8 after 30 days, and yesterday looks to have finished around 17.5. It's therefore a tossup whether the outcome is 18.8 or 18.7. We might know fairly soon. The EWP has been updated to 37.1 mm with some uncertainty around reporting times (they don't follow the usual pattern which may be a misprint) but in any case maps of actual rainfalls show very little for 30th or 31st and I am expecting the preliminary EWP to be around 37.2 mm. The final value going into the tables will be known on the 5th and that will determine the ultimate contest scoring anyway. 

Don't forget to enter September's contest to avoid larger late penalties forthcoming. 

[Earthshine]

21 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

The CET was also 18.8 after 30 days, and yesterday looks to have finished around 17.5. It's therefore a tossup whether the outcome is 18.8 or 18.7. We might know fairly soon. The EWP has been updated to 37.1 mm with some uncertainty around reporting times (they don't follow the usual pattern which may be a misprint) but in any case maps of actual rainfalls show very little for 30th or 31st and I am expecting the preliminary EWP to be around 37.2 mm. The final value going into the tables will be known on the 5th and that will determine the ultimate contest scoring anyway. 

Don't forget to enter September's contest to avoid larger late penalties forthcoming. 

Looking like the third warmest August on record or potentially something like the 7th warmest of any month on record.  Very impressive final month of what has been a truly historic summer.

[Man With Beard]

4 hours ago, Earthshine said:

Looking like the third warmest August on record or potentially something like the 7th warmest of any month on record.  Very impressive final month of what has been a truly historic summer.

Yes amazing stats and I guess the 2nd or 3rd best July and August combo on record after 1995. It got here hot early July, and it just never cooled down except for on one day - still hasn't cooled down.

[Earthshine]

3 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Yes amazing stats and I guess the 2nd or 3rd best July and August combo on record after 1995. It got here hot early July, and it just never cooled down except for on one day - still hasn't cooled down.

August has been fantastic here, at least compared to the Augusts I can remember!  That second week was absolutely incredible, clear skies and 5 days in a row of 33°C+ according to my weather station.  Monday 18th of July was the first time I recorded above 33°C here and then we had five days of it the following month!  Most year barely scrape 30°C so it was pretty extraordinary.  Month average came out as 19.1°C, a good few degrees higher than last year.  Finally the long awaited back-loaded summer has arrived!

[Roger J Smith]

And the answer is ... we don't know. Waiting for Mr Hadley to reveal all. 

[Earthshine]

42 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

And the answer is ... we don't know. Waiting for Mr Hadley to reveal all. 

Think we can be fairly sure it'll be the third warmest August on record.  Two very warm Augusts so far this decade.  Making up for the complete lack of any hot August during the 2010s.

[Earthshine]

In terms of maximum temperatures, this summer has been the hottest on record for Cardiff Bute Park station.  Maximum mean temperature JJA was 23.3°C this year, compared to 23.1°C for 2018 and 23.2°C for 1995.  

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield finished on 18.4C +2.0C above average. Rainfall 79mm 114.8% of the monthly average.

 

[Roger J Smith]

We are still waiting for CET and EWP updates, usually the EWP updates every day without fail but has not been touched since 37.1 mm reported to 28th. I can't imagine that it would add much to that however. 

[Don]

1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

We are still waiting for CET and EWP updates, usually the EWP updates every day without fail but has not been touched since 37.1 mm reported to 28th. I can't imagine that it would add much to that however. 

I suspect it will be Monday now?

[Roger J Smith]

It's only Shil and myself (CET) who really have anything at stake in this waiting game, I think everything else is pretty much a done deal. If they find a bit more rain to add to the total it could make a difference too, but I'm not expecting that to happen from the maps I have seen on meteociel, more depends on what they say for the tables on the 5th (EWP) than this tracker update. 

 

[mushymanrob]

12 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

It's only Shil and myself (CET) who really have anything at stake in this waiting game,

 

........... and an army of amateur bloggers who are waiting for these figures so we can comparethis summer against others...

@Weather-history .. have you your index yet?