August 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Earthshine]

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

May be the high point for the month for the max CET. Has to be one of the hottest figures for maxima for the first half of the month though?

Yep probably and all time CET record still a possibility.  Current records are 19.1°C (1995), 19.0°C (1997) and 18.6°C (1975).

[Roger J Smith]

14th Aug CET mean (23.6) and max (31.7) records set, blowing away 1911's weaker ending of its competing heat wave which was 21.7 and 28.7. As noted earlier the 1911 hot spell did hold on to its 23.9 mean daily record for 13th but we now have three max records in the past four days (12th did not break 2020).

As to the question of high average maximum, that average of 26.2 for 1-14 Aug compares to these (in CETv2.0) ... I show the top ten previous and also where eventual top twenty monthly averages stood after 14th. Some of those relied more on second half warmth. As you can see, 1975 had a higher average but we are keeping pace with the tied second and third of the three hottest starts to August in 1975, 1995 and 2003. The entries below 22.8 are only those with a top 25 outcome and several others are left out in that lower range. The table does include all starts of 22.8 or higher though, the worst finish seems to be 1897 at an eventual t-39.

YEAR ___ Mean Max 1-14 (CET v2.0) and month (rank)

1975 ____ 27.0 _____ 24.0 (3)

1995 ____ 26.3 _____ 25.1 (1)

2003 ____ 26.3 _____ 23.5 (t5)

2022 ____ 26.2 _____ 

1911 ____ 25.3 _____ 23.2 (t8)

1997 ____ 24.9 _____ 23.9 (4)

2020 ____ 24.8 _____ 21.8 (t19)

1990 ____ 24.6 _____ 23.0 (10)

2004 ____ 24.4 _____ 21.9 (18)

1884 ____ 24.2 _____ 22.6 (t12)

1933 ____ 24.0 _____ 22.6 (t12)

1899 ____ 23.7 _____ 23.3 (7)

1937 ____ 23.6 _____ 21.8 (t19)

1916 ____ 23.3 _____ 20.9 (t39)

1944 ____ 23.2 _____ 21.6 (t24)

2018 ____ 23.0 _____ 21.2 (t32)

1947 ____ 22.9 _____ 24.4 (2)

1897 ____ 22.8 _____ 20.4 (t48)

1953 ____ 22.8 _____ 20.7 (t41)

only top 25 monthly from here down

1893 ____ 22.4 _____ 22.0 (t16)

1989 ____ 22.4 _____ 21.6 (t24)

1935 ____ 22.3 _____ 21.8 (t19)

1976 ____ 22.3 _____ 23.5 (t5)

1983 ____ 22.1 _____ 22.6 (t12)

1991 ____ 21.7 _____ 22.1 (15)

1955 ____ 21.6 _____ 23.2 (t8)

2019 ____ 21.4 _____ 21.7 (t22)

1984 ____ 21.1 _____ 22.8 (11)

1959 ____ 20.9 _____ 22.0 (t16)

1949 ____ 20.4 _____ 21.7 (t22)

 

[Man With Beard]

19 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

14th Aug CET mean (23.6) and max (31.7) records set, blowing away 1911's weaker ending of its competing heat wave which was 21.7 and 28.7. As noted earlier the 1911 hot spell did hold on to its 23.9 mean daily record for 13th but we now have three max records in the past four days (12th did not break 2020).

As to the question of high average maximum, that average of 26.2 for 1-14 Aug compares to these (in CETv2.0) ... I show the top ten previous and also where eventual top twenty monthly averages stood after 14th. Some of those relied more on second half warmth. As you can see, 1975 had a higher average but we are keeping pace with the tied second and third of the three hottest starts to August in 1975, 1995 and 2003. The entries below 22.8 are only those with a top 25 outcome and several others are left out in that lower range. The table does include all starts of 22.8 or higher though, the worst finish seems to be 1897 at an eventual t-39.

YEAR ___ Mean Max 1-14 (CET v2.0) and month (rank)

1975 ____ 27.0 _____ 24.0 (3)

1995 ____ 26.3 _____ 25.1 (1)

2003 ____ 26.3 _____ 23.5 (t5)

2022 ____ 26.2 _____ 

1911 ____ 25.3 _____ 23.2 (t8)

1997 ____ 24.9 _____ 23.9 (4)

2020 ____ 24.8 _____ 21.8 (t19)

1990 ____ 24.6 _____ 23.0 (10)

2004 ____ 24.4 _____ 21.9 (18)

1884 ____ 24.2 _____ 22.6 (t12)

1933 ____ 24.0 _____ 22.6 (t12)

1899 ____ 23.7 _____ 23.3 (7)

1937 ____ 23.6 _____ 21.8 (t19)

1916 ____ 23.3 _____ 20.9 (t39)

1944 ____ 23.2 _____ 21.6 (t24)

2018 ____ 23.0 _____ 21.2 (t32)

1947 ____ 22.9 _____ 24.4 (2)

1897 ____ 22.8 _____ 20.4 (t48)

1953 ____ 22.8 _____ 20.7 (t41)

only top 25 monthly from here down

1893 ____ 22.4 _____ 22.0 (t16)

1989 ____ 22.4 _____ 21.6 (t24)

1935 ____ 22.3 _____ 21.8 (t19)

1976 ____ 22.3 _____ 23.5 (t5)

1983 ____ 22.1 _____ 22.6 (t12)

1991 ____ 21.7 _____ 22.1 (15)

1955 ____ 21.6 _____ 23.2 (t8)

2019 ____ 21.4 _____ 21.7 (t22)

1984 ____ 21.1 _____ 22.8 (11)

1959 ____ 20.9 _____ 22.0 (t16)

1949 ____ 20.4 _____ 21.7 (t22)

 

Wow, level with 1995 and 2003. A measure of just how hot it's been.

Has there ever been a year where both July and August were 18+?

[Earthshine]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Wow, level with 1995 and 2003. A measure of just how hot it's been.

Has there ever been a year where both July and August were 18+?

1911 and 1995 off the top of my head?  Might be others.

Edited August 15, 2022 by Earthshine

[Earthshine]

If the 12z GFS run were to verify it would result in the first 20°C month in the CET record.

[Don]

3 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

If the 12z GFS run were to verify it would result in the first 20°C month in the CET record.

Only a matter of time, why not August 2022?!

[Earthshine]

11 minutes ago, Don said:

Only a matter of time, why not August 2022?!

If we don't have a new all time August record then I'm betting we will break the 116 year old September record of 35.6°C

[Don]

6 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

If we don't have a new all time August record then I'm betting we will break the 116 year old September record of 35.6°C

No I hope not, but wouldn't surprise me!!

[Roger J Smith]

Yes the double-18 club is fairly exclusive, as you said 1911 and 1995. 1779, 1826, 1933, 1955, 1975, 1976, 1983 and 2003 came closest all breaking at least 17.3 twice, but all missed out on the double 18. Even so, 1983 is ahead of 1911 in terms of July-August average. But in terms of the average July-August CET this is the top 40 for that (v2.0) ... and 2022 stands a good chance of topping this list too (19.5 would do it).

Rank __ YEAR ____ Jul-Aug avg ___ July __ Aug

_ ??? ___ 2022 ______ ?? ?? ________ 18.2 _ ???? ____

_ 01 ___ 1995 ______ 18.80 _______ 18.5 _ 19.1 ____ 

_ 02 ___ 1983 ______ 18.40 _______ 19.4 _ 17.4 ____

_ 03 ___ 1911 ______ 18.20 _______ 18.2 _ 18.2 ____

_t04 ___ 1976 ______ 18.05 _______ 18.5 _ 17.6 ____

_t04 ___ 2018 ______ 18.05 _______ 19.3 _ 16.8 ____

_ 06 ___ 2006 ______ 18.00 _______ 19.8 _ 16.2 ____

_ 07 ___ 1975 ______ 17.95 _______ 17.3 _ 18.6 ____

_ 08 ___ 1955 ______ 17.90 _______ 17.7 _ 18.1 ____

_ 09 ___ 2003 ______ 17.85 _______ 17.4 _ 18.3 ____

_t10 ___ 1947 ______ 17.80 _______ 17.0 _ 18.6 ____

_t10 ___ 1997 ______ 17.80 _______ 16.6 _ 19.0 ____

_t12 ___ 1779 ______ 17.75 _______ 17.9 _ 17.6 ____

_t12 ___ 1826 ______ 17.75 _______ 17.9 _ 17.6 ____

_t12 ___ 2013 ______ 17.75 _______ 18.5 _ 17.0 ____

_ 15 ___ 1933 ______ 17.70 _______ 17.8 _ 17.6 ____

_ 16 ___ 1747 ______ 17.60 _______ 16.9 _ 18.3 ____

_t17 ___ 1808 ______ 17.55 _______ 18.4 _ 16.7 ____

_t17 ___ 1868 ______ 17.55 _______ 18.3 _ 16.8 ____

_t17 ___ 1899 ______ 17.55 _______ 17.3 _ 17.8 ____

_t20 ___ 1666 ______ 17.50 ________18.0 _ 17.0 ____

_t20 ___ 1719 ______ 17.50 ________18.0 _ 17.0 ____

_t22 ___ 1990 ______ 17.40 ________ 16.8 _ 18.0 ____

_t22 ___ 2019 ______ 17.40 ________ 17.6 _ 17.2 ____

_t24 ___ 1781 ______ 17.35*________ 17.4 _ 17.3 ____

_t24 ___ 1989 ______ 17.35*________ 18.1 _ 16.6 ____

_ 26 ___ 1783 ______ 17.30 ________ 18.8 _ 15.8 ____

_t27 ___ 1759 ______ 17.25 ________ 18.2 _ 16.3 ____

_t27 ___ 1800 ______ 17.25 ________ 17.7 _ 16.8 ____

_t27 ___ 1852 ______ 17.25 ________ 18.7 _ 15.8 ____

_t27 ___ 1859 ______ 17.25 ________ 18.3 _ 16.2 ____

_t27 ___ 1959 ______ 17.25 ________ 17.3 _ 17.2 ____

_t27 ___ 1984 ______ 17.25 ________ 16.8 _ 17.7 ____

_t33 ___ 1701 ______ 17.20 ________ 18.3 _ 16.1 ____

_t33 ___ 1733 ______ 17.20 ________ 18.3 _ 16.1 ____

_t33 ___ 1780 ______ 17.20 ________ 16.8 _ 17.6 ____

_t36 ___ 1949 ______ 17.10 ________ 17.4 _ 16.8 ____

_t36 ___ 1991 ______ 17.10 ________ 17.1 _ 17.1 ____

_t38 ___ 1778 ______ 17.05 ________ 17.3 _ 16.8 ____

_t38 ___ 2016 ______ 17.05 ________ 17.0 _ 17.1 ____

_t40 ___ 1718 ______ 17.00 ________ 17.0 _ 17.0 ____

_t40 ___ 1807 ______ 17.00 ________ 17.1 _ 16.9 ____

_t40 ___ 1994 ______ 17.00 ________ 18.0 _ 16.0 ____

_t43 ___ 1921 ______ 16.95 ________ 18.5 _ 15.4 ____

_t43 ___ 2001 ______ 16.95 ________ 17.3 _ 16.8 ____

(t45 1893 and 2021 avg 16.90 __ t47 1935, 1999 avg 16.85 __ t49 1901, 1934 avg 16.80 __ 1825, 2020 avg 16.75)

________________

* note that if the list was warmest two consecutive months, June-July 1846 would tie at 17.35 (18.2, 16.5) Aug 1846 was 16.6. 

... if the list were two warmest months during a year, 2006 has a warmer Sep (16.6) that gives an average of 18.30.

2020 was 16.75 and 2021 was 16.90 to finish outside this list. 

[Weather-history]

I think the driest August on record for the EWP is safe with 1995 

[Weather-history]

6 hours ago, Earthshine said:

If we don't have a new all time August record then I'm betting we will break the 116 year old September record of 35.6°C

 

6 hours ago, Don said:

No I hope not, but wouldn't surprise me!!

And the CET for that month was just 13.9°C 

 

[Don]

4 hours ago, Weather-history said:

 

And the CET for that month was just 13.9°C 

 

And what year was that?

[Summer Sun]

19.7c to the 15th

3.9c above the 61 to 90 average
2.9c above the 81 to 10 average

[Weather-history]

4 hours ago, Don said:

And what year was that?

1906

[Earthshine]

Maximum CET still at 26.1C (+6.1C).  Expect this to drop down a notch over this week but where it goes after that is still uncertain.  A number of very hot runs still showing up (equally many keep it closer to average).  No sign of anything significantly cooler which would send CET significantly down.  Expecting easily an 18C+ month at this rate but we shall see.

[Roger J Smith]

Monday 15th did not quite reach record high mean (21.4 vs 21.7 in 1893) and was well down on high max but did break the high minimum mark for the date, 16.9 replaces 16.2 from 2012. 

Edited August 17, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 19.5C +2.9C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

[Roger J Smith]

Today will probably come in around the same as 16 July so either way, 16 or 17 July to 15 or 16 Aug will be a 31-day "month" with an average of 19.5 C. That is similar to the peak of warmth in 1911 and behind the top three (1995, 1976, 2006). I don't see any chance of later intervals doing better because they will quickly lose the enormous contributions of 17-19 July. 

The EWP at last report was around 10 mm (4.8 mm to 14th plus perhaps 5 mm to 12z today including yesterday's amounts), when the GFS model began to track projected amounts (so anything 12z to present time is in that estimate). Those look like an average near 25 mm through ten days (to a total of 35 mm) and very little additional now predicted 26th-31st. An outcome near 40 mm seems plausible at this point although confidence is rather low in that dry last six days. 

The current projections for CET would indicate that the running mean will never drop below 19.0 except possibly on one rather cool day and the end of the month is very warm, so the outcome could be as high as 19.3 to 19.5. These warmer solutions keep coming and going, the cooler ones that I've seen recently would perhaps see a drift down into the low to mid 18 range. Any way you slice it, the outcome looks warmer than just about all forecasts. 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Sad state of affairs with the warming climate with each decade tending to be warmer than the previous!

[Don]

1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Sad state of affairs with the warming climate with each decade tending to be warmer than the previous!

And that's likely to continue for the coming decades, too!

Edited August 16, 2022 by Don

[Maz]

16 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Today will probably come in around the same as 16 July so either way, 16 or 17 July to 15 or 16 Aug will be a 31-day "month" with an average of 19.5 C. That is similar to the peak of warmth in 1911 and behind the top three (1995, 1976, 2006). I don't see any chance of later intervals doing better because they will quickly lose the enormous contributions of 17-19 July. 

The EWP at last report was around 10 mm (4.8 mm to 14th plus perhaps 5 mm to 12z today including yesterday's amounts), when the GFS model began to track projected amounts (so anything 12z to present time is in that estimate). Those look like an average near 25 mm through ten days (to a total of 35 mm) and very little additional now predicted 26th-31st. An outcome near 40 mm seems plausible at this point although confidence is rather low in that dry last six days. 

The current projections for CET would indicate that the running mean will never drop below 19.0 except possibly on one rather cool day and the end of the month is very warm, so the outcome could be as high as 19.3 to 19.5. These warmer solutions keep coming and going, the cooler ones that I've seen recently would perhaps see a drift down into the low to mid 18 range. Any way you slice it, the outcome looks warmer than just about all forecasts. 

Thanks Roger.  Not quite a non-calendar 20c CET average, 19.5c.  From your analysis a joint 4th highest 30day period in the historical record.  Which puts the recent spell nicely in context temperature wise.

[Summer Sun]

19.6c to the 16th

3.9c above the 61 to 90 average
2.8c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 19.5C +2.9C above normal. Rainfall at 58.6mm 85.3% of the monthly average. Good chance August will have average rain now.

[Earthshine]

Should the Azores High once again extend across the UK next week I think we will seriously be looking at potentially the warmest August on record.  I'm not sure if we'll beat 1995's maximum CET of 25.1°C though unless we see a return of 80°F+

[Weather26]

1 hour ago, Earthshine said:

Should the Azores High once again extend across the UK next week I think we will seriously be looking at potentially the warmest August on record.  I'm not sure if we'll beat 1995's maximum CET of 25.1°C though unless we see a return of 80°F+

Still time for the Bank Holiday weekend to scupper this.