August 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[richie3846]

2 hours ago, Earthshine said:

Should the Azores High once again extend across the UK next week I think we will seriously be looking at potentially the warmest August on record.  I'm not sure if we'll beat 1995's maximum CET of 25.1°C though unless we see a return of 80°F+

I just watched the met office 10 day trend, it seems we are in with a chance of beating 25.1c, with the most likely outcome for the end of August being well above average, in the 25 to 30c range.

[Roger J Smith]

This is the updated list of warmest 31-day intervals using CET v2.0 ...

now includes ranks and pre-1772 monthly averages

 

1 __ 24 July 1995 to 23 Aug 1995 __ 20.25 (rounds to 20.2)

... also above 20.0 are intervals starting 23 July and 25-27 July, also rounding to 20.0 starting 22 and 28 July.

 

2 __ 22 June 1976 to 22 July 1976 __ 20.09 (rounds to 20.1)

... also above 20.0 are intervals starting 20 and 21 June, also rounding to 20.0 23 June to 23 July

 

3 __ July 2006 (19.82) now rounds to 19.8 and that is the highest 31-day average, although 30 June to 30 July average 19.84.

 

Some other warmer than calendar month 31-day averages of note:

 

4 __ 17 July to 16 Aug 2022 __ 19.55 (rounds down to 19.5)

5 __ 20 or 21 July to 19 or 20 Aug 1911 __ 19.46

6 __ 6 July to 5 Aug 1983 __ 19.44

7 __ 27 June to 27 July 2018 __ 19.42

8 __ 6 July to 5 Aug 2013 __ 19.12

9 __ 23 or 24 July to 22 or 23 Aug 2003 __ 19.10

10_ 7 July to 6 Aug 1868 __ 19.09

11_ 25 July to 24 Aug 1947 __ 19.02

12_ 16 July to 15 Aug 1975 _ 18.96

13_ 29 June to 29 July 1783 _ 18.92

14_ 12 June to 12 July 1826 _ 18.90

15_ 3 July to 2 Aug 1852 _ 18.89

16_ 9 July to 8 Aug 1808 _ 18.86

17_ 3 July to 2 Aug 1921 _ 18.79

18_ 23 July to 22 Aug 2020 _ 18.60

19_ 13 July to 12 Aug 1990 _ 18.53

20_ 21 July to 20 Aug 1800 _ 18.47

21_ 7 July to 6 Aug 1955 _ 18.45 (note a second non-overlapping interval later in list)

22_ 20 July to 19 Aug 2004 _ 18.39

23_ 17 June to 17 July 1941 _ 18.37

t24_ 10 July to 9 Aug 1818 _ 18.35

t24_ 9 July to 8 Aug 1994 _ 18.35

t24_ 10 July to 9 Aug 2019 _ 18.35

27_ 23 June to 22 July 1794 _ 18.32

t28_ 1 July to 31 July (or 2 Jul to 1 Aug) 1859 _ 18.30

t28_ July 1701, July 1733, August 1747

32 _ 5 June to 5 July 1846 _ 18.26

t33_ 1 to 31 July 1934 _ 18.22

t33_ 10 or 11 July to 9 or 10 Aug 2014 _ 18.22

t35_ 22 June to 21 July 1778 _ 18.20

t35_ July 1759

37_ 17 July to 16 Aug 1933 _ 18.19

38_ 14 July to 13 Aug 1870 _ 18.16

39_ 15 or 16 July to 14 or 15 Aug  1989 _ 18.15

t40_ 3 July to 2 Aug 1901 _ 18.10

t40_ 10 Aug to 9 Sep 1955 _ 18.10 (second interval entirely separate from first above)*

t42_ 10 July to 9 Aug 1825 _ 18.07

t42_ 6 July to 5 Aug, or 29 July to 28 Aug 1899 _ 18.07

44_ 17 June to 17 July 2005 _ 18.04

t45_ 12 July to 11 Aug 1969 _ 18.00

t45_ June 1686, July 1666, July 1677, July 1714, July 1719

51_  7 July to 6 Aug 1999 _ 17.99

(note 2021 pretty much maxed out with the July average, 17.86 2 July to 1 Aug is the peak ...  1-31 July 1779 had the same average.)

(another close contender was 27 June to 27 July 1949 at 17.80)

* 1955 had three distinct peaks, two as shown above, a third one being 18.16 for 27 July to 26 August; all have sub-18 intervals between them but this third one is not counted in the list since it overlaps both of the others.

(1976 almost produced a second separate interval with the peak being 17.70 for 2 Aug to 1 Sep 1976)

______________________________________________

No calendar months before daily data started in 1772 were above 18.3 which is not to say they couldn't have produced a contender, the most likely looking interval might be July into part of August in 1701 or 1733 as both July means were 18.3 and August 16.1 for both, June 1733 was 15.2 indicating it might have had late heat as well. Also August 1747 average was 18.3 after a 16.9 July so there's a good chance some part of that late July might have boosted the 18.3. A search is underway to establish that this list has found all cases above 18.0. 

Ranks from t42 to 51 are one lower (t41 to 50) if read as order of years rather than order of heat waves since a second 1955 spell occurred in the previous set. 

Months pre-1772 in the table could be higher than their monthly averages for some 31 day intervals, the average gain for other hot months with daily data is 0.3, the general rule being the more days one can add from an adjacent month, the higher the outcome might be. For example, both July and August 1911 (18.2) gained 1.3 from their mid-July to mid-August heat wave. Adding one or two days is unlikely to change the average much. Also bear in mind that June has only 30 days and needs to add one at either end. June 1846 was basically unchanged as a result. 

Edited August 18, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 19.3C +2.7C above normal. Rainfall 58.7mm 85.3% of the monthly average.

[Earthshine]

8 hours ago, richie3846 said:

I just watched the met office 10 day trend, it seems we are in with a chance of beating 25.1c, with the most likely outcome for the end of August being well above average, in the 25 to 30c range.

That would be quite something.  A summer with two 18°C+ months, a record breaking CET month, a new maximum day CET record, a new all time maximum temperature and a new all time highest minimum temperature.

Edited August 18, 2022 by Earthshine

[Roger J Smith]

For highest all-time minimum, would that be for all the UK? In the CET we have set the second highest (18.9) after 20 July 2016 (19.5) so far. Also a number of daily high minimum CET records. I think you mean the UK record perhaps? 

[Earthshine]

9 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

For highest all-time minimum, would that be for all the UK? In the CET we have set the second highest (18.9) after 20 July 2016 (19.5) so far. Also a number of daily high minimum CET records. I think you mean the UK record perhaps? 

Yep sorry didn't make that particularly clear!  For all time maximum and minimum temperature was independent of CET.  I'm surprised we didn't beat 2016 to be honest, must have been some quite significant variation across the country!

[Summer Sun]

19.5c to the 17th

3.8c above the 61 to 90 average
2.7c above the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

EWP is now around 20 mm, having reached 16 mm by 16th and adding about 4 mm on average with rainfalls mostly in the southeast on 17th.

The 06z GFS indicates that another 10 mm is most likely, although heavy rainfalls in the North Sea were partly over eastern England on the 00z GFS run and therefore that added more like 20-25 mm. So the outcome could be anywhere from 30 to 45 mm using this spread of recent guidance. Any outcome will maintain the close scoring at the top with PIT and freeze locked in a close contest for the lead, the higher the EWP goes, the better chances for Feb91Blizzard to move closer in third but a low outcome would increase the lead of the two front-runners (who have two of the three driest forecasts so cannot score more than about 0.24 different from each other). 

The recent GFS runs maintain warmer than average temperatures and while it's not often as hot as recently, it's warm enough to keep the CET knocking on the door of 1995, chances look to be about 50-50 that this year ties or beats 1995 (at 19.1). 

Once the models get a better handle on that North Sea rainfall system (about 9-10 days out) I will show the preliminary EWP scoring. I ran it for a finish near 30 mm, even if it reaches 40 mm only a few scores would change and not by all that much. 

[LetItSnow!]

9 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

For highest all-time minimum, would that be for all the UK? In the CET we have set the second highest (18.9) after 20 July 2016 (19.5) so far. Also a number of daily high minimum CET records. I think you mean the UK record perhaps? 

I remember that heatwave quite well in July 2016 and am very surprised it managed to be the warmest. I remember some very warm nights but not exceptionally so.

[Weather-history]

On 16/08/2022 at 05:44, Weather-history said:

I think the driest August on record for the EWP is safe with 1995 

It is.

Driest months on record are tough to beat, the last one was August 1995 for the EWP.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 19.2C +2.6C above average, Rainfall 59mm 85.8% of the monthly average.

[Roger J Smith]

No update available today on CET, estimate that it has stayed on 19.5 since the earlier report was rounded down and the likely daily mean for 18th was near 18 so monthly is probably now 19.5 rounded up but could be 19.4. If average was 18.0 from yesterday to end of month (14 days) then the outcome would be 18.8.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 19C +2.4C above average. Rainfall 59mm 85.8% of the monthly average.

Only a slow downward drift this week.

[Summer Sun]

19.4c to the 19th

3.6c above the 61 to 90 average
2.6c above the 81 to 10 average

Edited August 20, 2022 by Summer Sun

[Roger J Smith]

EWP settled in at 21.0 mm after the widespread mid-week rainfalls, and the GFS has lost interest today in heavy rains from an east coast low spreading inland, in fact the low itself is downgraded even over the North Sea. So it begins to look like 30 mm give or take, which is close to the two lowest forecasts of 28.9 (Thundery Wintry Showers) and freeze (30 mm) with the PIT at 32 mm. Other than how those three divide up the top three scores, I think all other details could be settled unless we get further revisions. 

As a result, here are some preliminary annual scores, the top three are based on an outcome of 28 mm but in general other scores cannot change unless the outcome is above 33 mm. (later edits, estimate is now 35 mm, and as of 7 Sep final value is 37.5 mm, so some scores have been adjusted in the table)

WoldTopper continues to do very well considering that they only joined after three contests and have entered six of nine. Anyone else who has not played all nine so far has their number of entries beside their name. Average error is only ranked for those with at least six of nine entries. Unfortunately, Earthshine who was at 5/8 didn't place an entry so they and BFTP have dropped out of the average error rankings which now apply to 47 entrants. Unlike the CET contest, total points are ranked for everyone regardless of how many contests have been missed. Very close at the top of both points and average error.

 

PRELIMINARY ANNUAL SCORING for EWP Contest 

Results now based on 37.5 mm final outcome, see notes above _ scores and average errors adjusted. 

 

Rank ___ Forecaster ___________ Points ___ Avg error (rank) ____ Aug score _ fcst

_01 ____ The PIT ________________64.87 ____ 19.34 (2) ___________ 8.57 (t8)  ___ 32 

_02 ____ Freeze _________________63.69 ____ 19.37 (3) ___________ 7.84 (t11)  __ 30

_03 ____ Feb1991Blizzard ______ 59.22 ____ 24.63 (5) ___________ 5.60 (21) __ 59

_04 ____ Mulzy _________________ 56.89 ____ 24.08 (4) ___________ 8.78 (7) ___ 42

_05 ____ seaside60 (8) _________ 53.32 ____ 25.65 (6) ___________ 9.60 (t3) ___ 40

_06 ____ Bobd29 _______________ 52.31 ____ 28.20 (11) __________ 1.44 (40) ___ 90

_07 ____ Polar Gael ____________ 52.04 ____ 30.19 (18) ___________1.08 (42) ___ 92.5

_08 ____ Reef __________________ 50.91 ____ 28.03 (10) ___________ 4.28 (27) ___ 70

_09 ____ Roger J Smith ________ 49.93 ____ 27.41 (8) _____________10.00 (1) ___ 38.8

_10 ____ weather-history _____ 47.73 ____ 28.57 (12) _____________ 6.95 (15) ___ 47 

_11^____Daniel* (8) ___________ 46.97 ____ 26.86 (7) ______________ 8.57 (t8) ___ 43 

_12 ____ dancerwithwings ____ 46.71 ____ 28.74 (13) _____________ 6.72 (16) ___ 49

_13 ____ Mr Maunder _________ 46.68 ____ 27.63 (9) ______________ 6.27 (18) ___ 52

_14 ____ DR(S)NO _____________ 46.20 ____ 30.79 (19) _____________ 3.62 (30) ___ 75

_15 ____ Don __________________ 45.75 ____ 31.03 (20) _____________ 6.50 (17) ___ 50

_16 ____ rwtwm _______________ 45.25 ____ 32.30 (24) _____________ 7.72 (13) ___ 45 (2nd)

_17 ____ Neil N ________________ 44.96 ____ 32.68 (25) _____________ 0.90 (43) ___ 99

_18 ____ Ed Stone _____________ 44.66 ____ 31.74 (22) _____________ 2.62 (35) ___ 80 (2nd)

_19 ____ ProlongedSnowLover(8) __ 43.99 ____ 28.99 (14) _____________ 9.60 (t3) ___ 35

_20 ____ Wold Topper (6) ______ 42.92 ____ 17.20 (1) ______________ 6.04 (19) ___ 53

_21 ____ Sleety (7) _____________ 42.76 ____ 29.01 (15) _____________ no fcst

_22 ____ Midlands Ice Age _____ 42.74 ____ 34.88 (30) _____________5.82 (20) ___ 54

_23 ____ Emmett Garland _____ 42.42 ____ 35.39 (32) _____________ 3.18 (32) ___ 77

_24 ____ syed2878 _____________ 41.95 ____ 34.60 (29) ____________ 5.16 (23) ___ 61

_25 ____ Godber1 ______________ 41.54 ____ 36.14 (33) ____________ 2.18 (37) ___ 82 (2nd)

_26 ____ virtualsphere _________ 41.12 ____ 34.19 (28) _____________3.84 (29) ___ 74

_27 ____DiagonalRedLine (7) __ 40.83 ____ 29.91 (17) _____________ no fcst

_28 ____ February1978 ________ 40.54 ____ 31.59 (21) _____________ 4.72 (25) ___ 64

_29 ____ Jonboy ________________39.54 ____ 34.06 (27) _____________ 9.18 (5) ____ 35 (2nd, 1d) 

_30 ____ Frigid _________________ 39.51 ____ 38.23 (t35) ____________ 1.62 (39) ___ 85

_31 ____ J10 ____________________ 39.49 ____ 33.59 (26) _____________ 1.32 (41) ___ 90 (2nd)

_32 ____ Jeff C (8) ______________ 38.87 ____ 31.91 (23) ______________ no fcst

_33 ____ Stargazer (7)  _________ 38.56 ____ 29.49 (16) ______________ 9.80 (2) ____ 36  

_34 ____ summer blizzard _____ 36.13 ____ 40.79 (40) ______________ 0.54 (45) ___110

_35 ____ davehsug _____________ 35.23 ____ 40.52 (39) _____________ 0.72 (44) ___102

_36 ____ noname_weather _____ 33.49 ____ 40.08 (38) _____________2.96 (33) ___ 78

_37 ____ summer8906 (7) ______ 32.72 ____ 41.93 (41) _____________ 1.86 (38) ___ 83

_38 ____ SteveB (7) _____________ 31.99 ____ 44.91 (43) _____________ 2.74 (34) ___ 80

_39 ____ snowray _______________31.30 ____ 38.23 (t35) ____________ 4.94 (24) ___ 62

_40 ____ Weather26 ____________30.48 ____ 49.08 (46) _____________ 0.36 (46) ___124

_41 ____ shillitocettwo (8) ______ 29.53 ____ 45.58 (44) _____________ no fcst

_42 ____ Stationary Front ______ 29.09 ____ 39.32 (37) _____________ 3.50 (31) ___ 75 (2nd)

_43 ____ stewfox (6) ___________ 27.63 ____ 42.80 (42) _____________ no fcst

_44 ____ Norrance  (7) _________ 27.28 ____ 37.91 (34) _____________ no fcst

_45 ____ Earthshine (5) ________ 25.95 ____ 29.24 ( --- ) ____________ no fcst

_46 ____ summer18 ____________24.82 ____ 46.57 (45) _____________ 4.50 (26) ___ 66

_47 ____I Rem Atl 252 __________22.43 ____ 55.41 (47) _____________ 0.00 (48) ___143

_48 ____ Coldest Winter (6) ____ 20.28 ____ 35.27 (31) _____________ 7.58 (12) ___ 44.3

_49 ____ Kirkcaldy Weather (4) _19.09 ____ 18.60 (----) ____________ 4.06 (28) ___ 70.4

(further info for August entrants only _ all have one entry this year)

_61 ____ Polar Maritime _________ 8.98 ____ 3.7 (----) _____________ 8.98 (6) ____ 41.2

_63 ____ B87 _____________________7.84 ____ 7.5 (----) _____________ 7.84 (t11) ___ 45

_67 ____ Thundery Wintry Showers __ 7.20 ____ 8.6 (---) _______________7.20 (14)  ___ 28.9

_69 ____ sunny_vale _____________ 5.38 ___ 22.5 (----) _____________ 5.38 (22) ___ 60

_73 ____ Weather Enthusiast91 __2.30 ___ 44.5 (---) ______________2.30 (36) ___ 82

_76 ____ Thunder Athlete ________0.18 ___102.5 (----) ____________ 0.18 (47) ___140

 

^ note: Daniel would have 50.67 points for 9th place and an average error of 24.75 mm (6th) if the late May forecast had been scored)

 

 

Edited September 7, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Roger J Smith]

The 00z GFS has returned more rain to the outlook around Thursday-Friday but the rainfall maps look a bit odd to me. I won't be too worried about the 30 mm scoring paradigm until this gets resolved a bit more credibly. Some hope for those of us closer to 40 mm in any case. Several people are in with a chance of scoring that elusive double on CET and EWP, it was only managed once, by Midlands Ice Age. 

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

The 00z GFS has returned more rain to the outlook around Thursday-Friday but the rainfall maps look a bit odd to me. I won't be too worried about the 30 mm scoring paradigm until this gets resolved a bit more credibly. Some hope for those of us closer to 40 mm in any case. Several people are in with a chance of scoring that elusive double on CET and EWP, it was only managed once, by Midlands Ice Age. 

Might we see some cool minima month end to knock CET out of 19s at least. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 19C +2.4C above normal. Rainfall 59.3mm 86.2% of the monthly average.

[Roger J Smith]

7 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Might we see some cool minima month end to knock CET out of 19s at least. 

06z GFS says yes to that, 18.5 and 40 mm rough estimates. 

[The PIT]

While the GFS 12oz says no..... Models twitching a bit

[Roger J Smith]

Yes that run looks closer to 19.3 and 30 mm. The whole range of CET variations means little to the contest with top forecast 18.9, but has implications for the record (19.1 1995). I ran the EWP scoring for 38 mm and only one or two entrants come out in a different rank although third and fourth place scores are considerably closer to the top two. The summer this most closely resembles, 1911, had one more burst of heat in early September before fading out to near average. I think 1868 was similar although of course that was followed by a record mild winter, 1911-12 was more variable and had some cold days (in Feb 1912). We don't want to be going anywhere near summer of 1912 next year but May was rather warm. 

 

Edited August 22, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Earthshine]

19 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Yes that run looks closer to 19.3 and 30 mm. The whole range of CET variations means little to the contest with top forecast 18.9, but has implications for the record (19.1 1995). I ran the EWP scoring for 38 mm and only one or two entrants come out in a different rank although third and fourth place scores are considerably closer to the top two. The summer this most closely resembles, 1911, had one more burst of heat in early September before fading out to near average. I think 1868 was similar although of course that was followed by a record mild winter, 1911-12 was more variable and had some cold days (in Feb 1912). We don't want to be going anywhere near summer of 1912 next year but May was rather warm. 

 

Read somewhere that this year's current La Nina setup or something along those lines is similar to 1975 and prior to 1976 so perhaps this is cooler of two warm summers?  I'll see if I can dig up the tweet.

EDIT: Here it is: 

 

Edited August 22, 2022 by Earthshine

[Summer Sun]

19.3c to the 20th

3.6c above the 61 to 90 average
2.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[reef]

Its looking like 19+C is very likely now. Temperatures never really dip out of the low-mid twenties in the CET zone and some of the nights look rather warm. The last couple of days look cooler but they're over a week away at the moment so will most likely change.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 18.8C +2.2C above normal. Rainfall 59.9mm 87.1% of the average.