August 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Relativistic]

18 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Will be interesting to compare Scotland, N Ireland and Wales values with England CET values. For Scotland and N Ireland I suspect won't be Top 10 summer for them, 2018 much warmer. The core heat really has been in central, easteen and southern boundaries. We have been on the cooler side of the divide, despite the heat mid July and a couple of weeks back, we've had many a day max in high teens at best this summer. 

 

18 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Yes different situation here.. we've stayed green. Mind I think reservoirs only 60-70% full, which is a little below average. Its a long way from Aug 95. 2018 delivered scorched brown grass by July after the persistant warmth and dry since May. Its been episodic here this summer, lengthy dry warm periods only very temporary heat, interspersed with cool wetter conditions, with a handful of notably wet 24 hr periods. 

 

Indeed... with some exceptions maxima have been in the 17-22C range this summer. It had been very dry up until recently, though.

Edited August 24, 2022 by Relativistic

[Summer Sun]

19.2c to the 23rd

3.4c above the 61 to 90 average
2.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 18.8C +2.2C above average. Rainfall unchanged.

[Earthshine]

On 22/07/2022 at 11:15, Shillitocettwo said:

   The heat will return, not to quite the record breaking values of July but this will be a more consistent 1976ish heatwave, although it will end spectacularly with thunderstorms which will cause major disruption  to Reading Festival. CET 18.9.C (despite the fact I had a feeling August will be record breaking , think we've had enough records for one year....

Looking likely this will be a fantastic guess!  I'll admit I thought my 18.0°C was a bit high but here we are!

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

19 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

19.2c to the 23rd

3.4c above the 61 to 90 average
2.5c above the 81 to 10 average

When will one of the winter months be below average by a similar amount ?

Might need a long weekend in Scandinavia to get my fix!!

[Summer Sun]

19.2c to the 24th

3.4c above the 61 to 90 average
2.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[Scorcher]

Surprised it hasn't edged up more after yesterday- anyone know what yesterday ended up as overall?

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 18.8C +2.2C above normal. Rainfall up to 75.2mm 109.3% of the monthly average. 

We need another 18mm of rain to go into the top 10 wettest Augusts. It ain't going to happen.  Looking like it will come in the 4th or 5th warmest on record for us.

[Roger J Smith]

Yesterday was 20.6 and I think it stayed on 19.2 because it was rounded up from around 19.15 the day before, now it's a full 19.2. 

I thought the weaker records could be under threat, today is only 20.6 (1869) and the 30th is 19.9 (2008), however the latest guidance shows those days cooler. The ones in between are above 22 C and should survive. 

The EWP is currently at around 32 mm, 27.1 to 23rd and possibly 5 mm from the rather localized heavy rainfalls yesterday north and west of London. The GFS indicates that only 2-3 mm more is likely (grid average) so 35 looks to be the outcome. 

The 12z GFS shows average temperatures today to 31st of 17 C (down from earlier forecasts) and the monthly record may not happen now, the current guidance would have the finish at 18.7. 

I have edited the preliminary scoring for EWP to reflect the slightly higher outcome, about ten scores will change slightly. 

Edited August 25, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[StretfordEnd1996]

3 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Yesterday was 20.6 and I think it stayed on 19.2 because it was rounded up from around 19.15 the day before, now it's a full 19.2. 

I thought the weaker records could be under threat, today is only 20.6 (1869) and the 30th is 19.9 (2008), however the latest guidance shows those days cooler. The ones in between are above 22 C and should survive. 

The EWP is currently at around 32 mm, 27.1 to 23rd and possibly 5 mm from the rather localized heavy rainfalls yesterday north and west of London. The GFS indicates that only 2-3 mm more is likely (grid average) so 35 looks to be the outcome. 

The 12z GFS shows average temperatures today to 31st of 17 C (down from earlier forecasts) and the monthly record may not happen now, the current guidance would have the finish at 18.7. 

I have edited the preliminary scoring for EWP to reflect the slightly higher outcome, about ten scores will change slightly. 

Thanks for your continued information of great value - 

If Aug CET comes out at 18.7 I make it the seasonal CET for this famous (or infamous?  ) Summer to be around 17.2, on par with 2003 although I may have got my mathematics wrong and someone way wish to correct me there. 

Or something then around 17.1-17.4 in that ball park. (1947, 1983, 1846, 2003, 2006, 1995, 2018). Within the top 5 hottest (or tied fifth). 

[Roger J Smith]

Yes, so the v2.0 seasonal ranks are probably like the monthly ranks, differentiated by second decimals they don't show you (as demonstrated in my list but those equal in two decimals are randomly distributed), also as most will be aware, the legacy CET had second decimals for seasonal values. So what I've done here is to show the current v2.0 ranks and the monthly means, and the old-style two-decimal values those would generate. Then I show what 2022 will need in August to match each of these in two decimals. 

The ranks in the v2.0 table are maintained as they are shown but I decide whether they are tied values based on the 2 decimal values. You could consider them tied at one decimal if you wish.

The fact that 1947, 1975 and 1983 do not round off as expected hints that they may be weighting the monthly values rather than just averaging them. 

Rank _ v2.0 _ 2dec _ YEAR__ JUN _ JUL _ AUG ___ 2022 to tie (2dec) (14.9 18.2 xx)

_t14 _16.9 _ 16.83 _ 1975 __ 14.6 _ 17.3 _ 18.6 __ 17.4

_t14 _16.9 _ 16.87 _ 1868 __ 15.5 _ 18.3 _ 16.8 __ 17.5

_13 _ 16.9 _ 16.93 _ 1899 __ 15.7 _ 17.3 _ 17.8 __ 17.7

_t11 _17.0 _ 16.97 _ 1781 __ 16.2 _ 17.4 _ 17.3 __ 17.8

_t11 _17.0 _ 16.97 _ 1911 __ 14.5 _ 18.2 _ 18.2 __ 17.8

_10 _ 17.0 _ 17.00 _ 1933 __ 15.6 _ 17.8 _ 17.6 __ 17.9

_t08 _17.1 _ 17.03 _ 1947 __ 15.5 _ 17.0 _ 18.6 __ 18.0

_t08 _17.1 _ 17.03 _ 1983 __ 14.3 _ 19.4 _ 17.4 __ 18.0

_07 _ 17.1 _ 17.10 _ 1846 __ 18.2 _ 16.5 _ 16.6 __ 18.2

_06 _ 17.2 _ 17.20 _ 2003 __ 15.9 _ 17.4 _ 18.3 __ 18.5

_t04 _17.3 _ 17.27 _ 2006 __ 15.8 _ 19.8 _ 16.2 __ 18.7 (this was the outcome)*

_t04 _17.3 _ 17.27 _ 1995 __ 14.2 _ 18.5 _ 19.1 __ 18.7 (this was the outcome)*

_03 _ 17.4 _ 17.40 _ 2018 __ 16.1 _ 19.3 _ 16.8 __ 19.1

_02 _ 17.6 _ 17.60 _ 1826 __ 17.3 _ 17.9 _ 17.6 __ 19.7

_01 _ 17.7 _ 17.67 _ 1976 __ 16.9 _ 18.5 _ 17.5 __ 19.9

 

So, something learned from this project, the v2.0 seasonal averages are weighted or derived from daily or max/min, and not just an average of three monthly means which is how I think the legacy CET seasonal numbers were always calculated. 

* With the outcome of 18.7, 2022 enters this table at t4 (one decimal) but is shown in 6th in the v2.0 tables behind both 1995 (4th) and 2006 (5th). 

Edited September 6, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Weather-history]

Driest August since 2003 and driest summer since 1976 or 1983 looks the possibilities.

[Scorcher]

23 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Driest August since 2003 and driest summer since 1976 or 1983 looks the possibilities.

Looks like easily the sunniest August in Manchester as well since 2003. I recall 2005 being fairly sunny as well but I don't have the stats for it. We could well go over 200 hours which hasn't happened very often in August in the last 2 decades.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield back to 18.9C +2.3C above average. Rainfall up to 78.9mm 114.7% of the monthly average.

Should see a slow downward turned for the temperatures. Local forecast has some showers for us tomorrow however I feel that's unlikely. So 78.9mm is likely to be the final figure.

That would give us 159.7mm for the summer or 75.2% of the average. Not even anywhere near making the top ten driest here.

[Don]

On 25/08/2022 at 10:18, prolongedSnowLover said:

When will one of the winter months be below average by a similar amount ?

Might need a long weekend in Scandinavia to get my fix!!

December 2022 

I've been saying for years that I need a couple of weeks in Canada to get my fix.  Won't happen this year though!

Edited August 26, 2022 by Don

[Roger J Smith]

There was no CET update but yesterday from the data would likely have been only around 17 C which would probably have resulted in a fall back to 19.1.

Today's minima look rather low also, despite a higher maximum again. Could be another fall to 19.0 after today. 

The GFS projections have drifted back up again by a small amount, but high 18 finish still seems more likely than new record. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still 18.8C +2.2C above normal. Rainfall still at 78.9mm 114/7% of the monthly average.

We should finish about 18.5C +2.0C above normal. The fourth warmest on record. Summer would be the joint third warmest at 17.5C tying with 1976 and 2006.

 

Edited August 27, 2022 by The PIT

[Summer Sun]

19.0c to the 26th

3.2c above the 61 to 90 average
2.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

The EWP has crept up to 37 mm (36.8 to 25th, est 0.2 on 26th) and GFS gives it perhaps 1 mm additional with 3-5 mm here and there, zero fairly common though. Looks good for my 38.8 mm prediction now. 

The 06z GFS continued that rather subdued warmth we've been seeing recently, looks like 12z is following suit, an average of 17 for these last five days will bring the outcome to 18.7. 

[Don]

1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

The EWP has crept up to 37 mm (36.8 to 25th, est 0.2 on 26th) and GFS gives it perhaps 1 mm additional with 3-5 mm here and there, zero fairly common though. Looks good for my 38.8 mm prediction now. 

The 06z GFS continued that rather subdued warmth we've been seeing recently, looks like 12z is following suit, an average of 17 for these last five days will bring the outcome to 18.7. 

A pretty decent August I would say and the warmest since 1997!

[richie3846]

So with only a few days to go, and a fair idea about the final figure, does anyone know how summer 22 stacks up against others in the series? My gut instinct tells me top 10 but I could be wrong on that.

[Don]

23 minutes ago, richie3846 said:

So with only a few days to go, and a fair idea about the final figure, does anyone know how summer 22 stacks up against others in the series? My gut instinct tells me top 10 but I could be wrong on that.

I think that's a pretty safe bet!

[Roger J Smith]

Just scroll back, I have posted those numbers (if you meant CET) and what August values would tie. It looks to be around the 3rd to 5th area. Then for EWP, scroll back further for July-August EWP totals, I have not yet looked at summer seasonal EWP totals. Will do that now. 

[Roger J Smith]

This was the list of driest summers, have inserted 2022 at its confirmed finish of 110.2 mm. That would be 7th all-time and 4th in recent decades, could even edge in front of 1983 or tie.

 

Rank __ Year ___ Summer EWP

_01 ___ 1995 ___ 66.9 mm

_02 ___ 1976 ___ 74.0 mm

_03 ___ 1800 ___ 91.5 mm

_04 ___ 1869 ___ 98.9 mm

_05 ___ 1818 ___102.6 mm

_06 ___ 2022 ___110.2 mm

_07 ___ 1983 ___110.8 mm

_08 ___ 1887 ___112.3 mm

_09 ___ 1913 ___114.4 mm

_10 ___ 1864 ___118.1 mm

_11 ___ 1826 ___121.8 mm

_12 ___ 1949 ___121.9 mm

_13 ___ 1780 ___124.0 mm

_14 ___ 1984 ___128.0 mm

_15 ___ 1870 ___131.1 mm

_16 ___ 2018 ___132.8 mm

_17 ___ 1899 ___132.9 mm

_18 ___ 1921 ___133.1 mm

_19 ___ 1975 ___136.2 mm

_20 ___ 1955 ___137.8 mm

_21 ___ 1981 ___141.4 mm

_______________________________

So the top three summers for CET are all in this list of driest summers, as well as several others in the top twenty of CET, also 2003 is 39th driest (161.6 mm), 2006 is 28th (152.2 mm) and 1947 22nd (146.4 mm). 

There are a few dry summers that were quite cool, including 1864. 

The wettest summer in recent decades was 2012 (375.0 mm) which is fourth wettest all time. Wettest all-time was 1912 (409.7 mm) which edged out 1879 (409.2 mm). 1829 (396.3 mm) was third. 

Edited September 7, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Roger J Smith]

This list for July-August rainfall is way back in the thread so I moved it to here with the estimated value for Aug 2022 added:

The lowest July-August total rainfalls since 1766 are these:

YEAR ____ JUL __ AUG ____ Total

1995 ____ 37.6 ___ 9.1 ____ 46.7 mm

1955 ____ 26.1 __ 27.0 ____ 53.1 mm

1976 ____ 30.1 __ 25.2 ____ 55.3 mm

2022 ____ 22.5 __ 37.5 ____ 60.0 mm (based on final data)

1869 ____ 21.6 __ 43.1 ____ 64.7 mm

1800 _____ 9.1 __ 55.7 ____ 64.8 mm

1864 ____ 26.9 __ 39.0 ____ 65.9 mm

1911 ____ 15.8 __ 54.9 ____ 70.7 mm

1818 ____ 50.4 __ 21.0 ____ 71.4 mm

1983 ____ 39.2 __ 33.3 ____ 72.5 mm

1803 ____ 30.3 __ 44.2 ____ 74.5 mm

1913 ____ 32.6 __ 41.9 ____ 74.5 mm

1780 ____ 51.4 __ 24.3 ____ 75.7 mm

Edited September 7, 2022 by Roger J Smith