August 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Summer Sun]

18.0c to the 9th

2.2c above the 61 to 90 average
1.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[Earthshine]

Maximum CET at 23.6°C which is already an impressive 3.5°C above average.  Will shoot up dramatically this week, perhaps even 26°C+?

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 17.7C +1.0C above normal. Rainfall Unchanged.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Now ten days (very nearly a third of the way through) into the month, and the running CET has now gone above 18*C, and with the next four or five days looking very warm or hot, a final CET finish below the 17s is now looking very unlikely.  The warmest August CET of recent times was in 2020 at 17.6*C (legacy) , and we have to go back to 2003 for one warmer.  In actual fact notable heatwaves have not been common in August in recent years (even the notably hot summer of 2018 fizzled out after the first week of August), and overall high August CETs have been rare since 2003.  On top of that, the warmest August of recent times in 2020 was also a wet one overall.  It is now looking likely this month that the first significantly warm (and also dry) August since 2003 may be happening. `

[Summer Sun]

18.2c to the 10th

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average
1.3c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 18C +1.3C above normal. Rainfall 9.2mm 13.4% of the monthly average.

[Earthshine]

Mean temp in Cowbridge this week is 21.9°C, phew

[Shillitocettwo]

I know this is the August thread but here goes for an Autumn prediction.....

 

   September 2022 - one or two more relatively intense bursts of heat exceeding 30.C interspersed with dome cooler Atlantic flows but way above average CET 16.4.C

 

  October 2022 - Again mild, not record breaking but high teens and low twenties days not uncommon....a couple of really chilly frosty nights mid month derailing a highest ever CET 12.5.C

 

   November 2022 - The stand out month, in many ways a December 2015 of November's with an outrageously freak heatwave early month courtesy of well above average temperatures lingering in the Med.... 25 or even 26.C will be realised obliterating the record with the CET at a crazy 16.C by even thd 10th, however a decline to average or near average temperatures later will yield an 11.5.C still a comfortable warmest ever Nov

[Don]

1 hour ago, Shillitocettwo said:

I know this is the August thread but here goes for an Autumn prediction.....

 

   September 2022 - one or two more relatively intense bursts of heat exceeding 30.C interspersed with dome cooler Atlantic flows but way above average CET 16.4.C

 

  October 2022 - Again mild, not record breaking but high teens and low twenties days not uncommon....a couple of really chilly frosty nights mid month derailing a highest ever CET 12.5.C

 

   November 2022 - The stand out month, in many ways a December 2015 of November's with an outrageously freak heatwave early month courtesy of well above average temperatures lingering in the Med.... 25 or even 26.C will be realised obliterating the record with the CET at a crazy 16.C by even thd 10th, however a decline to average or near average temperatures later will yield an 11.5.C still a comfortable warmest ever Nov

That is a hideous prediction but put it this way, I would not bet against it that's for sure!!

Edited August 11, 2022 by Don

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 18.5C +1.8C above average. Rainfall unchanged.

Would be higher but the nights are coming in cooler than predicted and staying close to normal thankfully.

[Summer Sun]

18.6c to the 11th

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average
1.7c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 18.8C +2.1C above normal. Rainfall 9.2mm 13.4% of the monthly average.

Should be past 19C by the end of tomorrow followed by a slow drop from Tuesday.

[Summer Sun]

18.9c to the 12th

3.2c above the 61 to 90 average
2.0c above the 81 to 10 average

[Earthshine]

Max CET running at 25.3°C which is a massive 5.2°C above average!

[Roger J Smith]

No daily records yet, but today could be close, 23.9 for 1911 (23.6 in legacy CET). Hoping it doesn't break, that's quite a venerable record compared to a lot of August dailies. The high maximum record for today is 30.5 (1911) and that is probably a goner (both Pershore at 33.1 and Rothamsted at 32.3 were well above that, if the Stonyhurst max is 30 then the average is 31.8). The 12th max (31.4) did not break the maximum record from 2020 (32.0), but the 11th (30.9) did  break the record from 2020 (30.7). 

Records for the 14th look very likely to go, they are from 1911 also, mean just 21.7 and max 28.7. Daily high minimum CET records have not been under threat so far (18.5 and 18.0 for 12th and 13th from 2020) but the record high minima for 14th and 15th are 16.7 (2001) and 16.1 (2012). Those could fall. The record mean for 15th is 21.7 (1893) and the record max is 28.0 (1893). While those are both downgraded by 0.4 from the legacy CET values, I don't think they would fall even at the lower values of v2.0 (but worth a watch).

As of today's GFS 12z run, the most likely outcome for the month is close to the record high of 19.1 (v2.0) set in 1995. There is very little cooling at any point really, just a few closer to average days late next week, but the final ten days look quite warm also. I would say the CET will peak at around 19.5 after 14th, then edge down into the high 18s before possibly oscillating around 19 later. We won't quite get a 20+ average for any 31 days but it could be close to the third place in that regard (July 2006 19.8). See a previous post of mine in this thread for the two higher 31d values from 1995 and 1976. 

The EWP prospects are lower now than advertised earlier, with a lot of rain that the GFS had been predicting gone from the model runs, so the additional amounts are only around 20-30 mm, and the current value is only 4.2 mm. Unless these projections are wrong, or there's a deluge on the 30th-31st beyond the model run, the month would finish quite dry. 

The lowest July-August total rainfalls since 1766 are these:

YEAR ____ JUL __ AUG ____ Total

1995 ____ 37.6 ___ 9.1 ____ 46.7 mm

1955 ____ 26.1 __ 27.0 ____ 53.1 mm

1976 ____ 30.1 __ 25.2 ____ 55.3 mm

1869 ____ 21.6 __ 43.1 ____ 64.7 mm

1800 _____ 9.1 __ 55.7 ____ 64.8 mm

1864 ____ 26.9 __ 39.0 ____ 65.9 mm

1911 ____ 15.8 __ 54.9 ____ 70.7 mm

1818 ____ 50.4 __ 21.0 ____ 71.4 mm

1983 ____ 39.2 __ 33.3 ____ 72.5 mm

1803 ____ 30.3 __ 44.2 ____ 74.5 mm

1913 ____ 32.6 __ 41.9 ____ 74.5 mm

1780 ____ 51.4 __ 24.3 ____ 75.7 mm

Edited August 13, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 19.1C +2.5C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

Average max is at 25.5C +4.1C above normal while the night is 12.7C +0.7C above normal to the 13th.

Looks like our records for August will stay intact unless there's another very hot spell in the next few weeks.

Interestingly this looks to be only the second top entry in the top ten for the 21st century the other being 2003 for the warmest August. This presuming that it doesn't turn very much cooler taking it off the top ten. At the moment it's joint 3rd warmest. The warmest is 1995 at 19.3C no.10 is 1984 with 17.4C they are four months tied on this value. Rainfall wise the driest is 1976 with 8.4mm. It's unlikely it will make the top ten driest months as it's already at 19.2mm.

The summer so far has 80.8mm so could make the top ten just. 1995 is the driest at 43.5mm followed by 1976 at 45.1mm

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

How can we get some early autumnal north-westerly excursions into the whole of the UK ?

Think we’ve had enough heat for the whole year 2022.

[Earthshine]

12 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

No daily records yet, but today could be close, 23.9 for 1911 (23.6 in legacy CET). Hoping it doesn't break, that's quite a venerable record compared to a lot of August dailies. The high maximum record for today is 30.5 (1911) and that is probably a goner (both Pershore at 33.1 and Rothamsted at 32.3 were well above that, if the Stonyhurst max is 30 then the average is 31.8). The 12th max (31.4) did not break the maximum record from 2020 (32.0), but the 11th (30.9) did  break the record from 2020 (30.7). 

Records for the 14th look very likely to go, they are from 1911 also, mean just 21.7 and max 28.7. Daily high minimum CET records have not been under threat so far (18.5 and 18.0 for 12th and 13th from 2020) but the record high minima for 14th and 15th are 16.7 (2001) and 16.1 (2012). Those could fall. The record mean for 15th is 21.7 (1893) and the record max is 28.0 (1893). While those are both downgraded by 0.4 from the legacy CET values, I don't think they would fall even at the lower values of v2.0 (but worth a watch).

As of today's GFS 12z run, the most likely outcome for the month is close to the record high of 19.1 (v2.0) set in 1995. There is very little cooling at any point really, just a few closer to average days late next week, but the final ten days look quite warm also. I would say the CET will peak at around 19.5 after 14th, then edge down into the high 18s before possibly oscillating around 19 later. We won't quite get a 20+ average for any 31 days but it could be close to the third place in that regard (July 2006 19.8). See a previous post of mine in this thread for the two higher 31d values from 1995 and 1976. 

The EWP prospects are lower now than advertised earlier, with a lot of rain that the GFS had been predicting gone from the model runs, so the additional amounts are only around 20-30 mm, and the current value is only 4.2 mm. Unless these projections are wrong, or there's a deluge on the 30th-31st beyond the model run, the month would finish quite dry. 

The lowest July-August total rainfalls since 1766 are these:

YEAR ____ JUL __ AUG ____ Total

1995 ____ 37.6 ___ 9.1 ____ 46.7 mm

1955 ____ 26.1 __ 27.0 ____ 53.1 mm

1976 ____ 30.1 __ 25.2 ____ 55.3 mm

1869 ____ 21.6 __ 43.1 ____ 64.7 mm

1800 _____ 9.1 __ 55.7 ____ 64.8 mm

1864 ____ 26.9 __ 39.0 ____ 65.9 mm

1911 ____ 15.8 __ 54.9 ____ 70.7 mm

1818 ____ 50.4 __ 21.0 ____ 71.4 mm

1983 ____ 39.2 __ 33.3 ____ 72.5 mm

1803 ____ 30.3 __ 44.2 ____ 74.5 mm

1913 ____ 32.6 __ 41.9 ____ 74.5 mm

1780 ____ 51.4 __ 24.3 ____ 75.7 mm

Thanks for this Roger.  Myself and I'm sure many others thoroughly enjoy reading your insightful posts and your analysis work!

[Summer Sun]

19.3c to the 13th

3.5c above the 61 to 90 average
2.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[Earthshine]

Maximum CET at 25.8°C which is an enormous 5.7°C above average. Must be close to the highest running maximum CET for August for the first half.  Expect this will pip 26°C including today's data so a +6°C anomaly for the first half of the month.  Crazy.

Maximum CET for 2022 is 15.13°C which is 2.61°C above average.  The anomaly must be 0.2°C or more for the rest of the year for this year to have the highest maximum CET on record.

 

 

Edited August 14, 2022 by Earthshine

[Roger J Smith]

Update on the record watch, Saturday did end up breaking the maximum with 31.4, but the mean of 23.4 is below the 1911 record of 23.9.

I believe this makes 12th-13th (23.0, 23.4) the warmest two consecutive days to fail to break mean daily records but a 24.0 on13  July 1923 against 24.5 from 1808 remains the highest daily mean not to set a record. 

Edited August 14, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Scorcher]

15 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Update on the record watch, Saturday did end up breaking the maximum with 31.4, but the mean of 23.4 is below the 1911 record of 23.9.

I believe this makes 12th-13th (23.0, 23.4) the warmest two consecutive days to fail to break mean daily records but a 24.0 on13  July 1923 against 24.5 from 1808 remains the highest daily mean not to set a record. 

The relatively low minima have prevented the records going. They've also prevented the CET from being closer to 20C already. Day time maxima have been very high so far this month- I imagine the warmest on record so far?

[Summer Sun]

19.6c to the 14th

3.8c above the 61 to 90 average
2.8c above the 81 to 10 average

[Earthshine]

On 10/08/2022 at 14:20, Earthshine said:

Maximum CET at 23.6°C which is already an impressive 3.5°C above average.  Will shoot up dramatically this week, perhaps even 26°C+?

Maximum CET now at a remarkable 26.2C which is 6.1C above the 1961-1990 average.  

[Scorcher]

31 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

Maximum CET now at a remarkable 26.2C which is 6.1C above the 1961-1990 average.  

May be the high point for the month for the max CET. Has to be one of the hottest figures for maxima for the first half of the month though?