August 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

C.E.T. averages and extremes

 

The averages are shown for the past forty-one years 1981-2021, and the warmest third are bold type, middle third italic and coolest third underlined. All temperature data in this post have been converted to v2.0 which may explain any slightly unfamiliar looking numbers you see. Note also monthly rankings are separated by second decimal which is not listed here.

 

25.2 ... warmest August day (12th, 2020)

24.8 ... previous warmest August day (1st, 1995)

19.1 ... warmest August, 1995

19.0 ... second warmest August, 1997

18.6 ... third warmest August, 1975

18.6 ... fourth warmest August, 1947

18.3 ... fifth and sixth warmest Augusts (2003, 1747)

18.2 ... seventh warmest August, 1911

18.1 ... eighth warmest August, 1955

18.0 ... ninth warmest August, 1990

17.8 ... 10th, 11th warmest 1736, 1899

17.7 ... 12th and 13th warmest August 2020, 1984

17.6 ... 15th warmest (tied one decimal with 1976 and earlier years)  2004 

17.4 ... 1983

17.2 ... 2019 

17.1 ... 1991, 2016

17.0 ... 2002, 2013 

16.9 ... 

16.8 ... 2001, 2018 

16.7 ... 2000, 2009, 2012

16.6 ... average of 1991-2020 and 1989, 1996

16.5 ... average of 1992-2021, and 2001-2021

16.45 ... average of 1981-2010 (16.450) _ round as you wish

16.3 ... 2008

16.2 ... average of 1971-2000, 1999, 2005, 2006

16.1 ... 

16.0 ... 1994, 1998, 2015, 2021 

15.9 ... 1998, 2015 

15.8 ... average of 1961-1990, and 1701-1800, and 1901-2000

15.7 ... average of 1659-2020 (15.66) and 1982, 2017

15.6 ... 1987

15.5 ... 2007, 2011

15.4 ... average of 1801-1900, 2010

15.3 ... 1992

15.2 ... 1988

15.1 ... average of 1659-1700, 2014

14.7 ... 1985 

14.6 ... 1993

13.7 ... coldest August since 1956 (1986) -- 17th coldest

13.6 ... 10th to 15th coldest (six years ... 1817, 1848, 1860, 1885, 1920, 1922)

13.5 ... coldest August since 1912 (1956) -- tied (one dec) 5th coldest with 1674, 1683, 1844, 1845

13.3 ... fourth coldest August (1725)

13.0 ... second coldest Augusts (tie) (1694,1695)

12.9 ... coldest August, 1912

 9.9 ... coldest day to 16th (16th, 1810) ... earliest sub-10 mean value in August (legacy was 9.5 1888 same date)

 8.8 ... coldest August day (26th, 1864) ... although it was 7.1 C on 1 Sept of 1816 (unchanged from CET legacy)

_________________________________________________________

Enter your CET forecasts by end of the day Sunday, 31st July, or with increasing late penalties, up to end of Wednesday, 3rd of August.

=======================================================================================

 

EWP forecasts

 

192.9 mm __ wettest August 1766 to 2021 (1912) -- (192.1 mm in 1799 a close second)

156.5 mm __ wettest August 1981 to 2021 (2004) 

125.2 mm __ August 2020

 83.1 mm ___ average for 1992-2021

 83.0 mm ___ average for all years 1766 to 2021

 82.3 mm ___ average for 1991-2020

 75.6 mm ___ average for 1981-2010

 14.4 mm ___ second driest August (1947)

 _ 9.1 mm ___ driest August 1766 to 2021 (1995) 

_____________________________________________________________________

Recent years: 2021 _ 54.3 mm ... ... 2020 _125.2 mm ... ... 2019 _ 86.8 mm ... ... 2018 _ 76.7 mm ... ... 2017 _ 83.8 mm ... ... 2016 _ 67.5 mm

... ... ... 2015 _ 109.1 mm ... ... 2014 _ 118.9 mm ... ... 2013 _ 66.1 mm ... ... 2012 _ 94.2 mm ... ... 2011 _ 91.4 mm ... ... 2010 _ 107.2 mm

... ... ... 2009 _ 60.5 mm ... ... 2008 _ 116.5 mm ... ... 2007 _ 60.7 mm ... ... 2006 _ 89.2 mm ... ... 2005 _ 62.5 mm ... ... 2004 _ 156.5 mm

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hadley EWP is used for contest scoring. Deadlines are the same as for CET contest. Add your EWP forecast to your CET forecast for one combined entry. You can enter either contest without making a forecast in the other category.

Good luck !! 

[B87]

18.3c and 45mm

[Weather26]

Surely August to be the month where it all breaks down properly!

15.8C and 124MM please-and yes we really do need the rain! 

[Summer18]

17.1 & 66mm

[Bobd29]

Hi 17.5C and 90mm for me plse

[Earthshine]

18.0C

[Polar Gael]

17.0°C and 92.5mm for me please. 

[Shillitocettwo]

   The heat will return, not to quite the record breaking values of July but this will be a more consistent 1976ish heatwave, although it will end spectacularly with thunderstorms which will cause major disruption  to Reading Festival. CET 18.9.C (despite the fact I had a feeling August will be record breaking , think we've had enough records for one year....

[Dancerwithwings]

17.3c & 49mm

Edited July 22, 2022 by Dancerwithwings

[Wold Topper]

17.9°c and 53mm please!

[Met.]

15.32 and 140mm. Another dreadful august.

[NeilN]

16.1c and 99mm

[I remember Atlantic 252]

16.3C, 143mm

[snowray]

16.8c and 62mm please.

[The PIT]

Going for 18.2C and 32mm of rain.

[Roger J Smith]

Further warm spells and even heat waves possibly, 18.6 and 38.8 mm

[Polar Maritime]

Going for 17.9c and 41.2mm. 

[virtualsphere]

16.9C and 74mm please 

[sunny_vale]

17.9C and 60mm please

Feel like there will be a continuation of the sunny, warm/hot and dry conditions until around the last third of the month where it all breaks down.

[coldest winter]

17.9 and 44.3 mm rainfall for me please.

[SteveB]

18.2C and 80mm please.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

17.6 and 82mm please.

[richie3846]

17.4c please

[Summer Sun]

17.9c for me please

[reef]

17.7C and 70mm.

Warm and slightly drier than average.