August 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Stargazer]

17.8 and 36mm please

[Summer8906]

This time I won't use the current models for any form of guidance, as I did that in April and June and got it badly wrong, particularly April when I went for notably cold and wet. It was quite the opposite!

Will use 1981-2010 as my baseline, as that period comprises most of my memory.

Will go for something typical for a modern August, i.e. cloudier than the 1981-2010 average, relatively cool day maxima and slightly wetter than the average for that period.

However as July has, from what I gather, been dry, I won't go for anything really wet, as the really wet Augusts seem to follow somewht unsettled Julys.

For temp I'll say that (due to cloud cover) day maxes will be marginally below average, and night minima marginally above, giving average overall. Will raise a little though to take into account possible short warm spells. So let's say 16.7.

Rainfall I'll go with 110% of average, again in relation to 1981-2010, so 83mm.

Other predictions, just for the fun of it: best chance of warm spells early in the month. Will go with 29C as the absolute max anywhere in the UK. Most unsettled for two weeks mid-month, though not as bad as the equivalent period in 2020, and the end of the month cooler and drier. This is based on what seem to be repeating patterns in many recent years.

Edited July 28, 2022 by Summer8906

[Methuselah]

I'll go for 17.6C and 80mm of rain please, Roger.

[summer blizzard]

16.8C, 110mm.

Increasingly unsettled and cyclonic.

[rwtwm]

17.3c and 45mm please

[Walsall Wood Snow]

I'll go for 16.9c please.

[syed2878]

For August I’m going with 16.5C and precipitation and 61 mm thank you

[Freeze]

17.5c and 30mm.

[Midlands Ice Age]

16.9C and 54mms of extremely required rainfall.

MIA

[Frigid]

17.4C and 85mm rain. Thanks

[Roger J Smith]

Table of forecasts for August 2022 

Partial tables to be finalized and reposted at midnight Sunday 31st. 

 

CET _ EWP _ FORECASTER (order) ______________ CET _ EWP _ FORECASTER (order)

18.9 _ --- --- _shillitocettwo ( 7 ) _______________ 17.0 _ 92.5 _ Polar Gael ( 6 ) ______

18.6 _ 38.8 _ Roger J Smith ( 15 ) _______________

18.3 _ 45.0 _ B87 ( 1 ) ___________________________

18.2 _ 32.0 _ The PIT ( 14 ) ______________________

18.2 _ 80.0 _ SteveB ( 20 ) _______________________

18.0 _ --- --- _ Earthshine ( 5 ) ___________________

17.9 _ 53.0 _ Wold Topper ( 9 ) _________________ 16.9 _ 74.0 _ virtualsphere ( 17 ) _______

17.9 _ 41.2 _ Polar Maritime ( 16 ) ______________ 16.9 _ --- --- _Walsall wood snow ( 30 ) _

17.9 _ 44.3 _ coldest winter ( 19 ) _______________ 16.9 _ 54.0 _ Midlands Ice Age ( 33 ) __

17.9 _ 60.0 _ sunny_vale ( 18 ) __________________

17.9 _ --- --- _Summer Sun ( 23 ) ________________ 16.8 _ 62.0 _ snowray ( 13 ) __________

17.8 _ 36.0 _ Stargazer ( 25 ) ___________________ 16.8 _110.0_ summer blizzard ( 28 ) __

17.7 _ 70.0 _ Reef ( 24 ) _________________________ 16.7 _ 83.0 _ summer8906 ( 26 ) _____

17.6 _ 82.0 _ Weather Enthusiast91 ( 21 ) _______16.6 _ 82.3 ___ average for 1991-2020 

17.6 _ 80.0 _ Ed Stone ( 27 ) _____________________16.5 _ 75.6 ___ average for 1981-2010

17.5 _ 90.0 _ Bobd29 ( 4 ) _______________________ 16.5 _ 61.0 _ syed2878 ( 31 ) ____

17.5 _ 30.0 _ freeze ( 32 ) _______________________

17.4 _ --- --- _Richie3846 ( 22 ) ___________________

17.4 _ 85.0 _ Frigid ( 34 ) ________________________ 16.5 _ 83.1 average for 1992-2021 ________________

17.3 _ 49.0 _ dancerwithwings ( 8 ) _____________ 16.3 _143.0_ I Remember Atlantic 252 ( 12 ) ____

17.3 _ 45.0 _ rwtwm ( 29 ) ______________________ 16.1 _ 99.0 _ NeilN ( 11 ) ________________________

17.1 _ 66.0 _ Summer18 ( 3 ) ___________________ 15.8 _124.0_Weather26 ( 2 ) ____________________

_________________________________________________ 15.3 _140.0_ Thunder Athlete ( 10 ) 

 

===============================

EWP forecasts in order

143 _ IremAtl ... 140 _ThA ... 126 _wx26 .. 110_sb

 99_NeilN .. 92.5_PG .. 90_bobd .. 85_Frig .. 83.1_92-21 .. 83_sum8906 ..

 82.3_91-20 .. 82_WE91 .. 80_Ste, EdS ..  .. 75.6_81-10

 74_virt .. 70_Reef .. 66_Sum18 .. 62_snow .. 61_syed .. 60_sunv

 54_MIA .. 53_WT .. 49_dww .. 45_ B87, rwtwm .. 44.3_cw ..

 41.2_PM .. 38.8_RJS .. 36_star .. 32_PIT .. 30_fre

________________________________

These are partial tables, will be removed when final tables are posted. Just putting these up for general interest and to assist the last day entrants in their choices. 

[emmett garland]

18.1 and 77mm please

Edited July 31, 2022 by emmett garland

[feb1991blizzard]

17.7c and 59mm please.

[Weather-history]

17.3C and 47mm

[DR(S)NO]

17.5c and 75mm

thank you please

[seaside 60]

Lets go right for the top few for this month. 

18.4c

40mm

thanks

 

[davehsug]

15.6C and 102mm please.

[Don]

17.7C and 50mm please.

[Godber 1]

16.8c and 82mm please.

[mulzy]

16.9C and 42mm

[Mark Bayley]

17.1c please 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

16.5C and 70.4mm please

[damianslaw]

Play it safe and go a bit above average but not much, 16.8 degrees. Models already suggesting la nina imprinting, mid atlantic heights and cool NW flows, with temporary ridge into the UK, more so earlier on, increasingly unsettled and cool end to the month. 

[J10]

17.0c and 90mm

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

I’ll go with a warm 17.8c with 35mm rainfall.