August 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[damianslaw]

6 hours ago, reef said:

Its looking like 19+C is very likely now. Temperatures never really dip out of the low-mid twenties in the CET zone and some of the nights look rather warm. The last couple of days look cooler but they're over a week away at the moment so will most likely change.

Did anyone foresee such a high CET?

[reef]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

Did anyone foresee such a high CET?

The highest guess was 18.9C (which will actually be close but still under), so nope!

[Roger J Smith]

Oddly enough the GFS finishes the month with heavy rainfalls spreading into southeast England but their impact on the EWP finish will be slight even if they do happen as shown. Current estimate is for a finish on 19.2 and 35 mm. 90% likely range has narrowed to 18.7-19.7 and 30-40.

[SummerShower]

Last time that there were 2 summer months with a cet of 18+ was 1995 (think we can pretty much guarantee this now bar some unseasonable cold showing up out of nowhere).  This didn't even happen in 1076!

June obviously much better in 76 but seems to have let this summer down cet wise, but didn't seem a bad month overall.

[Earthshine]

14 minutes ago, SummerShower said:

Last time that there were 2 summer months with a cet of 18+ was 1995 (think we can pretty much guarantee this now bar some unseasonable cold showing up out of nowhere).  This didn't even happen in 1076!

June obviously much better in 76 but seems to have let this summer down cet wise, but didn't seem a bad month overall.

Yep the CET in both July and August has been dragged up by some remarkably hot spells.  August in particular here had a remarkable first half with 4 consecutive days reaching 33°C+ which is pretty much unheard of in these parts.  With warmer weather forecast to end the month I think we've probably got a record breaker here (although I'm not sure if we'll beat the maximum CET of August 1995 at 25.1°C).

[Shillitocettwo]

   What does the August CET need to be to beat 1976s record across the three month meteorological summer period?

[reef]

19 minutes ago, Shillitocettwo said:

   What does the August CET need to be to beat 1976s record across the three month meteorological summer period?

It would require an August CET of 20.0C or more for us to beat 1976 (17.7C) . A 19C finish would put us 4th between 1995 (17.3C) and 2018 (17.4C).

[Shillitocettwo]

1 hour ago, reef said:

It would require an August CET of 20.0C or more for us to beat 1976 (17.7C) . A 19C finish would put us 4th between 1995 (17.3C) and 2018 (17.4C).

Think 1976 is safe then! Although Aug 22 has a reasonable shot at warmest Aug CET

[Earthshine]

43 minutes ago, Shillitocettwo said:

Think 1976 is safe then! Although Aug 22 has a reasonable shot at warmest Aug CET

June 1976 had contributed massively to that summer but it's looking like the average temperature July-August 2022 will be warmer than the equivalent period in 1976 by quite a bit.

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Earthshine said:

June 1976 had contributed massively to that summer but it's looking like the average temperature July-August 2022 will be warmer than the equivalent period in 1976 by quite a bit.

Late July 76 was very cool.....

[Methuselah]

18 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Late July 76 was very cool.....

Indeed, Rob: the very weeks I had off work!

[Earthshine]

Maximum CET of 24.8C to the 22nd.  Think we are probably going to be at least 3rd highest August maximum CET on record.  With the weather warming up towards Bank Holiday I think we could potentially beat the record of 25.1C set in 1995.  If we reach 25.1C then summer 2022 will be the second hottest summer on record in terms of maximum CET at 22.77C, beating 2018 (22.7) but behind 1976 by quite a margin (23.4).

Edited August 23, 2022 by Earthshine

[Roger J Smith]

Now that they have updated CET, we have slipped back to 19.1. Will add the other details if Summer Sun doesn't post later. 

EWP has reached about 27 mm (was 23.6 mm after 21d) and looks set to add only 5 mm more on average, would finish near 32 mm. 

Looking at 12z GFS temperature predictions, would say that the month would finish 19.3-19.5, warmer days ahead. 

[richie3846]

3 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Now that they have updated CET, we have slipped back to 19.1. Will add the other details if Summer Sun doesn't post later. 

EWP has reached about 27 mm (was 23.6 mm after 21d) and looks set to add only 5 mm more on average, would finish near 32 mm. 

Looking at 12z GFS temperature predictions, would say that the month would finish 19.3-19.5, warmer days ahead. 

So warmest August on record now very possible. Who'd have thought after the rollercoaster excitement of July, we'd follow that up with another crazy record smashing month? What's really pushed this August is the lack of cool days between the hot days. July was tempered with a cool start, and August's heatwave was long and hot, and in some ways, as impress as the short record heat we experienced. 

[damianslaw]

Will be interesting to compare Scotland, N Ireland and Wales values with England CET values. For Scotland and N Ireland I suspect won't be Top 10 summer for them, 2018 much warmer. The core heat really has been in central, easteen and southern boundaries. We have been on the cooler side of the divide, despite the heat mid July and a couple of weeks back, we've had many a day max in high teens at best this summer. 

[Earthshine]

6 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Now that they have updated CET, we have slipped back to 19.1. Will add the other details if Summer Sun doesn't post later. 

EWP has reached about 27 mm (was 23.6 mm after 21d) and looks set to add only 5 mm more on average, would finish near 32 mm. 

Looking at 12z GFS temperature predictions, would say that the month would finish 19.3-19.5, warmer days ahead. 

Genuinely think we will see a 20C month sometime this decade.  If we had got locked into the pattern we saw earlier this month with high pressure over the UK for say two weeks or so the CET would have sky-rocketed into the 20s.  Temperatures were rising day by day, exceeding 33°C widely and we had not yet reached radiative equilibrium before the hottest weather was cut off.

[damianslaw]

1 minute ago, richie3846 said:

So warmest August on record now very possible. Who'd have thought after the rollercoaster excitement of July, we'd follow that up with another crazy record smashing month? What's really pushed this August is the lack of cool days between the hot days. July was tempered with a cool start, and August's heatwave was long and hot, and in some ways, as impress as the short record heat we experienced. 

Yes paucity of clear skies has meant very mild minima. Also lack of fresher atlantic air at least in CET zone. The heat has stagnated with no real cool mixing. Not the case further north I may add! Different world up here!

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 18.9C yesterdays 18.8 was finger trouble. Rainfall up to 74.6mm and 108.4% of the monthly total.

[richie3846]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

Yes paucity of clear skies has meant very mild minima. Also lack of fresher atlantic air at least in CET zone. The heat has stagnated with no real cool mixing. Not the case further north I may add! Different world up here!

I have to keep reminding myself you folk aren't having the Mediterranean experience that we are enjoying here! I've got outdoor cucumbers coming out of my ears, and have already picked many ripe chillies grown OUTDOORS in the UK. My cherry tree is practically dead through drought, and my lawn brown and 2 inches lower than the normal soil height.

 My Auntie who lives near Chester tells me it's lush and green round her way.

[damianslaw]

Just now, richie3846 said:

I have to keep reminding myself you folk aren't having the Mediterranean experience that we are enjoying here! I've got outdoor cucumbers coming out of my ears, and have already picked many ripe chillies grown OUTDOORS in the UK. My cherry tree is practically dead through drought, and my lawn brown and 2 inches lower than the normal soil height.

 My Auntie who lives near Chester tells me it's lush and green round her way.

Yes different situation here.. we've stayed green. Mind I think reservoirs only 60-70% full, which is a little below average. Its a long way from Aug 95. 2018 delivered scorched brown grass by July after the persistant warmth and dry since May. Its been episodic here this summer, lengthy dry warm periods only very temporary heat, interspersed with cool wetter conditions, with a handful of notably wet 24 hr periods. 

[Roger J Smith]

Well we already had two "months" over 20 C, in summers of 1976 and 1995, the trick is to get them to overlap calendar months. Or maybe CET v3.0 will deliver. (July 2006 already 19.8 in v2.0). 

As it's getting on, here's the actual report on CET through 22 days ... 

19.1 was 3.4 above 1961-90 normal

... and 2.3 above 1981-2010 normal

... also 2.2 above 1991-2020 normal

... but 1.1 below 1995 running CET to 22nd (v2.0)

Edited August 23, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Roger J Smith]

It is also converging on the warmest August on record at my location in BC Canada, currently the mean is 24.1 C (mean max 33.7, mean min 14.5) and the normal value is 20.4 from 28.1 and 12.7. Last year we also had the warmest June (21.5) and July (25.7) on record and the heat dome June 26 to July 3 had record highs in the low to mid 40s (44.8 on June 30 was the absolute maximum). Not sure how far back the records go but similar locations with 125-150 years of record have the same outcome anyway. 

It has been so hot this summer that days in the low 30s feel refreshingly cool. 

[Scorcher]

16 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Will be interesting to compare Scotland, N Ireland and Wales values with England CET values. For Scotland and N Ireland I suspect won't be Top 10 summer for them, 2018 much warmer. The core heat really has been in central, easteen and southern boundaries. We have been on the cooler side of the divide, despite the heat mid July and a couple of weeks back, we've had many a day max in high teens at best this summer. 

Interesting as it's been very warm in Manchester averaged across the month. The average maximum at Rostherne is 24.4C so far. The minima have actually been fairly low in comparison, but this has started to change over the last 3 days. Only 2 days have failed to reach 20C here.

[Summer Sun]

19.1c to the 22nd

3.4c above the 61 to 90 average
2.3c above the 81 to 10 average

[richie3846]

35 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

19.1c to the 22nd

3.4c above the 61 to 90 average
2.3c above the 81 to 10 average

I'd expect a rise on the next couple of updates. It was pretty warm yesterday across the board, and last night would have been more notable if it wasn't for the extremes we've seen so far this summer. It was close to a tropical night for many. 18 to 20 seems to be the low for the majority of stations within the zone.