September 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Don]

14.5 or 14.6C looking like the final figure for September now?

[Roger J Smith]

That drop of 0.2 was from 15.15 (15.2) to 15.04 (15.0) so I can't see it happening again, perhaps one more drop of 0.2 and three of 0.1, have worked out that a mean of 10.0 for each day 27th to 30th would bring it in at 14.4, a mean of 11.0 gives 14.5. 

Today already looks to be close to 12, anything above 12.3 would produce no drop in rounded one decimal (could be 14.95) so don't be too surprised if it stays on 15.0 next report, but the average for 27th-30th may be slightly above 11 but maybe close enough for 14.5 to verify, so most likely 14.5 or 14.6 for the result. It will be a big drop from that early second highest running CET but then 1906 dropped even further (from first place on 7th) to end up 13.9. By the way, winter 1906-07 not all that remarkable but there was a record high pressure of 1065 mbs in the Baltic region in January 1907. 

 

[Don]

26 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

By the way, winter 1906-07 not all that remarkable but there was a record high pressure of 1065 mbs in the Baltic region in January 1907. 

 

With a December CET of 3.0C, January 3.6C and February 2.8C, 1906/07 would be seen to be a pretty decent winter by today's standards!  

Edited September 27, 2022 by Don

[richie3846]

1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

That drop of 0.2 was from 15.15 (15.2) to 15.04 (15.0) so I can't see it happening again, perhaps one more drop of 0.2 and three of 0.1, have worked out that a mean of 10.0 for each day 27th to 30th would bring it in at 14.4, a mean of 11.0 gives 14.5. 

Today already looks to be close to 12, anything above 12.3 would produce no drop in rounded one decimal (could be 14.95) so don't be too surprised if it stays on 15.0 next report, but the average for 27th-30th may be slightly above 11 but maybe close enough for 14.5 to verify, so most likely 14.5 or 14.6 for the result. It will be a big drop from that early second highest running CET but then 1906 dropped even further (from first place on 7th) to end up 13.9. By the way, winter 1906-07 not all that remarkable but there was a record high pressure of 1065 mbs in the Baltic region in January 1907. 

 

Thanks for clarifying that. Yesterday I said that I expected the drop to be about 0.1 for today and was scratching my head when I saw the figure. Now I know it was was 0.11, this makes a lot more sense, I was pretty sure it was going to be around that, and not 0.2c.

Also the nights haven't really been that cool with this northerly/northwesterly so far, given the variable cloud, continual showery activity and slight movement of the air overnight. I feel this has contributed to a slight curtailing of the impact of the cooler airflow.

[Don]

1 hour ago, richie3846 said:

Also the nights haven't really been that cool with this northerly/northwesterly so far, given the variable cloud, continual showery activity and slight movement of the air overnight. I feel this has contributed to a slight curtailing of the impact of the cooler airflow.

There often always seems to be something to curtail impacts of cold spells these days!

[Don]

4 hours ago, Frigid said:

 My 14.4C guess isn't looking too bad now. Thought I'd have no chance around two weeks ago. Could be very close! 

Yes, it looks like 14.4C will be the lowest possibility as Roger's post suggests.  However, you're likely to be closer than me!

[damianslaw]

I've been way out all year and never check any more what I went with. Expecting to be way out again, to my surprise I don't look to be too far off at 14.9 degrees, but unlike the rest of year look to be higher.

[Summer Sun]

14.9c to the 27th

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average
0.7c above the 81 to 10 average

[Don]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

14.9c to the 27th

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average
0.7c above the 81 to 10 average

14.5 or 14.6C still looking to be the finishing zone with that slight drop yesterday?  Chance it could have remained at 15.0C.

Edited September 28, 2022 by Don

[Roger J Smith]

With a rather low daily value of 10.9 for 27th, the drop was 15.04 to 14.89. Today's estimated CET would be only 10.0 which would bring it to 14.72. The last two days look a bit milder, estimate 12 C for each of them, the outcome is then 14.55 and could be rounded either way. In net terms, every degree that my estimates are wrong will change the outcome by .033, so if I'm too low by 1 deg each day then the outcome is 14.65 etc. 

With the EWP set to add around 10 mm or more on Friday, I will hold off with any preliminary scoring but clearly the result will be that freeze will move back into the lead, with PIT back to second and Mulzy, Feb1991Blizzard in a virtual tie for third (based on 77 mm). A scoring report should be available on 2nd of October. Our consensus of 76.5 mm will look quite good but it is also very close to the normal value. The forecasts are tightly clustered on either side of the likely outcome which means that scoring will drop off rather sharply despite generally low errors. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 15C +0.7C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

Looks like we will get some rain tonight then the next lot is Friday.

Ending zone for us  looking like 14.6C to 14.7C.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Don’t forget to get your entries in tomorrow to avoid any penalties!

[Don]

40 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Don’t forget to get your entries in tomorrow to avoid any penalties!

Bit late for September innit?! 

[Derecho]

58 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Don’t forget to get your entries in tomorrow to avoid any penalties!

I'm going to put my September CET guess as 14.7C, thanks!

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 14.8C +0.6C above normal. Rainfall up to 44.3mm 67.3% of the monthly average.

Last nights heavy rain wet well tot he west of us so almost certainly a dry month coming up. Will need more than 18.5mm tomorrow to take it above average.

looks like 14.6C will be our landing spot unless tonight is very cold indeed.

[Roger J Smith]

No update for CET on 28th, the EWP meanwhile is now looking likely to finish around 90 mm, as it had reached 72.5 by 27th and added at least 5 to that on 28th, 13-15 mm grid average being forecast for Friday. 

[Don]

1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

No update for CET on 28th, the EWP meanwhile is now looking likely to finish around 90 mm, as it had reached 72.5 by 27th and added at least 5 to that on 28th, 13-15 mm grid average being forecast for Friday. 

Bugger!  That's my 77mm gone up the shoot!! 

[Don]

5 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Don’t forget to get your entries in tomorrow to avoid any penalties!

Right, I'm going for a provisional September CET of 14.5C but may change it tomorrow ahead of the deadline.  Can I also go with 90mm for rainfall please.

[Roger J Smith]

As the EWP estimate has now left the crowded middle zone of forecasts, the likely outcome being around 90 mm, it seems more sensible to post a preliminary table of scoring since the amendments now probable will be smaller in terms of rank changes especially. Only a handful of forecasts were above 90 mm and of those, only one forecaster (weather-history) was in the top half of scoring, and has moved up again as a result of this call (99 mm). 

So here's a look at the updated annual standings, you can find your September score and rank at the end of the scoring row. Those three data points are your forecast in mm, your score, and your rank out of 48 who entered. I show the positions of all who entered September after 50th place leaving out a few occasional entrants who were neither ranked for average error nor above 50th place in points. ( second column, showing change of rank after September, n c means no change ... up means higher in the table although actually down in numerical terms, for example, Freeze went from 2nd to 1st which is up 1 in the table, although down from 2 to 1). I have noted late forecasts as that may explain jogs in score and ranking for September in some cases, also I have listed the order of entries for the three 90 mm forecasts which have the top three scores, a late penalty applied to third. In general terms, the scores drop 0.22 per rank except if they are duplicate entries then they drop only 0.12, and from all of that, late penalty of 0.30 per day (this month no one had a larger late penalty). Towards the bottom of the scoring, the drops reduce to 0.19 per rank with the same rules. One other scoring rule explains some slightly different outcomes, a further reduction of up to .06 is applied for "wrong anomaly sign" which this month hits the forecasts below the 1991-2020 "normal" of 76.0 mm. This is applied gradually for those forecasts just below normal until reaching .06 then stays at that amount. It has to be noted that this month the tight distribution of forecasts around our consensus (76.5 mm) has resulted in a larger than normal scoring drop per unit of error.

In the table, any forecasters with fewer than ten forecasts have their actual number shown in brackets. The first example is 6th place seaside60 who has nine forecasts entered. Rank for average error is only shown for those with 7 or more out of ten. This will continue to be the case to the end of the contest now. There will be 45 average error rankings. A total of 79 Net-weather members have entered the contest at least once. 

On 5 October the table was edited to show average errors for the final posted value, 89.9 mm. This did not change any scoring as the table had been scored from the 89.7 mm indicated on 2nd. 

Table of annual scoring (final, based on 89.9 mm) EWP contest

Rank __ change __ Forecaster _______ Points ____ Avg error (rank) __ Sep fx, score, rank

_01 ____ up 1 ____ Freeze ____________ 69.52 ____ 18.82 (2) _________ 76.0 __ 5.83 __ 20

_02 ____ up 2 ____ Feb1991Blizzard __ 66.59 ____ 23.06 (4) _________ 81.0 __ 7.37 __ 13

_03 ____ dn 2 ____ The PIT ____________65.51 ____ 20.40 (3) _________ 60.0 __ 0.64 __ 45

_04 ____ n c ______ Mulzy _____________62.16 ____ 23.16 (5) _________ 75.0 __ 5.27 __ 23

_05 ____ up 1 ____ Bobd29 ___________58.80 ____ 26.57 (10) ________ 78.0 __ 6.49 __ 17

_06 ____ dn 1 ____ seaside60 (9) ______55.90 ____ 25.56 (8) _________ 65.0 __ 2.58 __ 35

_07 ____ up 6 ____ Mr Maunder _______55.80 ____ 25.16 (6) _________ 87.0 __ 9.12 ___ 5 (tie)

_t08____ up 2 ____ weather-history ___ 54.88 ____ 26.62 (11) ________ 99.0 __ 7.15 __ 14

_t08____ up 6 ____ DR(S)NO __________ 54.88 ____ 28.34 (14) ________ 85.0 __ 8.68 ___ 7

_10 ____ dn 1 ____ Roger J Smith ______54.63 ____ 26.39 (9) _________ 72.7 __ 4.70 __ 25

_11 ____ dn 3 ____ Reef _______________54.05 ____ 27.52 (13) ________ 67.0 __ 3.14 __ 32

_12 ____ dn 1 ____ daniel* (9) _________52.38 ____ 25.42 (7) _________ 76.0 __ 5.41 __ 21 (1d late) ^

_13 ____ dn 7 ____ Polar Gael _________52.23 ____ 32.14 (26) ________ 40.2 __ 0.19 __ 47

_14 ____ up 1 ____ Don _______________51.90 ____ 29.22 (18) ________ 77.0 __ 6.15 __ 19

_15 ____ up 6 ____ SLEETY (8) _________49.47 ____ 26.75 (12) ________ 79.0 __ 6.71 __ 16

_16 ____ up 1 ____ Neil N _____________49.04 ____ 31.42 (22) ________110.0 __ 4.08 __ 27

_17 ____ up 14 ___ J 10 _______________48.95 ____ 30.24 (21) _________ 90.0 __ 9.46 ___ 3 (3rd ent, 1d late)

_18 ____ up 5 ____ Emmett Garland ___48.69 ____ 33.14 (27) _________ 77.0 __ 6.27 __ 18

_19 ____ dn 7 ____ dancerwithwings __ 48.42 ____ 28.66 (15) _________ 62.0 __ 1.71 __ 39

_20 ____ up 8 ____ February1978 _____ 48.34 ____ 29.12 (17) _________ 83.0 __ 7.80 __ 11

_21 ____ dn 5 ____ rwtwm ____________ 46.39 ____ 31.96 (25) _________ 61.0 __ 1.14 __ 42

_22 ____ n c _____ Midlands Ice Age ___ 46.02 ____ 33.48 (29) _________ 69.0 __ 3.28 __ 31 (1d late)

_23 ____ dn 4 __prolongedSnowLover (9)_ 45.51 ____28.92 (16) _________ 61.5 __ 1.52 __ 40

_24 ____ dn 6 ____ Ed Stone __________ 45.42 ____ 31.56 (23) _________ 60.0 __ 0.76 __ 44

_25 ____ dn 5 ____ Wold Topper (7) ___ 44.84 ____ 18.58 (1) __________ 63.0 __ 1.78 __ 38

_26 ____ dn 2 ____ syed2878 __________ 44.65 ____ 33.63 (t30) ________ 65.0 __ 2.70 __ 34

_27 ____ dn 2 ____ Godber1 ___________ 44.46 ____ 34.92 (32) _________ 66.0 __ 2.70 __ 33

_28 ____ up 2 ____ Frigid ______________ 43.47 ____ 36.42 (35) _________110.0 __ 4.18 __29

_29 ____ dn 3 ____ virtualsphere ______ 43.16 ____ 33.46 (28) _________ 63.0 __ 2.04 __ 37

_30 ____ up 4 ____ Summer Blizzard __ 43.06 ____ 37.70 (37) _________ 80.0 __ 6.93 __ 15

_31 ____ up 6 ____ summer8906 (8) ___ 41.28 ____ 37.31 (36) _________ 85.0 __ 8.56 ___ 8

_32 ____ up 6 ____ SteveB (8) __________40.89 ____ 39.79 (41) _________ 86.0 __ 8.90 ___ 6

_33 ____ dn 6 ___ DiagonalRedLine (7) _40.83 ____ 29.91 (t19) _________ no fcst

_34 ____ dn 5 ____ Jonboy _____________40.49 ____ 33.63 (t30) ________ 60.1 __ 0.95 __ 43

_35 ____ up 7 ____ Stationary Front ____38.97 ____ 35.40 (33) _________ 90.0 __ 9.88 ___ 2 (2nd entry)

_36 ____ dn 3 ____ Stargazer (8) ________38.94 ____ 29.91 (t19) ________ 57.0 __ 0.38 __ 46

_t37____ dn 5 ____ Jeff C (8) ____________38.87 ____ 31.91 (24) _________ no fcst

_t37____ up 4 ____ shillitocettwo (9) ____38.87 ____ 40.73 (42) _________ 88.0 __ 9.34 __ 4

_39 ____ up 1 ____ Weather26 __________38.07 ____ 44.91 (44) _________ 82.5 __ 7.59 __ 12

_40 ____ dn 5 ____ davehsug ___________37.55 ____ 38.98 (40) _________115.0 __ 2.32 __ 36

_41 ____ dn 5 ____ noname_weather ___ 37.49 ____ 37.98 (9) __________109.0 __ 4.00 __ 28 (1d late)

_42 ____ dn 3 ____ snowray ____________ 36.69 ____ 35.90 (34) _________ 75.0 __ 5.39 __ 22

_43 ____ up 3 ____ summer18 __________29.29 ____ 43.70 (43) _________ 72.0 __ 4.47 __ 26

_44 ____ dn 1 ____ stewfox (6) __________ 27.63 ____ 42.80 (---) _________ no fcst

_45 ____ dn 1 ____ Norrance (7) _________ 27.28 ____ 37.91 (38) ________ no fcst

_46 ____ up 3 ____ Kirkcaldy Weather (5)_27.11 ____ 18.56 (---) _________ 95.2 __ 8.02 __ 10

_47 ____ dn 2 ____ Earthshine (6) ________ 25.95 ____ 29.24 (---) ________ 40.0 __ 0.00 __ 48

_48 ____ dn 1 ____ I Rem Atl 252 _________23.82 ____ 52.68 (45) _______ 118.0 __ 1.39 __ 41

_49 ____ dn 1 ____ Coldest Winter (6) ____ 20.82 ____ 35.27 (---) _________ no fcst

_50 ____ dn 1 ____ Let It Snow! (4) _______ 17.75 ____ 43.35 (---) _________ no fcst

... from here down, only September forecasts are shown ...

_56 ___ up 17 __ Weather Enthusiast91 (2) _12.30 ___ 22.30 (---) ________90.0 __10.00 __ 1 (first entry at 90 mm)

_62 ___ up 7 ____ sunny vale (2) ___________ 8.74 ____ 22.90 (---) _________68.0 __ 3.36 __ 30

_63 ___ first entry _ Federico (1) ___________ 8.44 ____ 4.90 (---) _________ 85.0 __ 8.44 ___ 9

_72 ___ first entry _ Tidal Wave (1) _________ 4.93 ___ 16.90 (---) _________73.0 __ 4.93 __ 23

_____________________________________________________________

^ daniel* would have 56.08 points for 6th place and an average error of 23.44 mm for 6th, if scores for four-day late May fcst added. 

 

All four "robot" forecasters (consensus, 1981-2010, 1991-2020, 1992-2021) are in a narrow range that is around 5th in points and 11th to 12th in average error.

_4.9 ___ up 0.3 __ 1991-2020 _________ 58.97 ____ 27.27 (11.8) __________ 76.0 __ 5.83 (t20)

_5.4 ___ up 2.1 __ consensus __________57.50 ____ 27.00 (11.5) __________ 76.5 __ 5.94 (19.5)

_5.7 ___ up 2.2 __ 1992-2021 _________ 56.78 ____ 27.49 (11.9) __________ 76.1 __ 5.85 (19.9)

_5.7 ___ up 2.6 __ 1981-2010 _________ 56.67 ____ 27.55 (12.1) ___________77.2 __ 6.32 (17.8)

(the above can have ranks with decimal values to show where they fit into the forecaster rankings)

Edited October 5, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

No I meant for October

[Summer Sun]

14.6c to the 29th

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[Don]

17 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

14.6c to the 29th

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

14.5C looking like the final figure now?  I would think a 0.1C drop is likely today as temps last night were rather cool and the wind and rain is suppressing daytime temperatures.  May even push 14.4C?

[Derecho]

6 minutes ago, Don said:

14.5C looking like the final figure now?  I would think a 0.1C drop is likely today as temps last night were rather cool and the wind and rain is suppressing daytime temperatures.  May even push 14.4C?

Perhaps, quite a turnaround from where we was mid-month. I didn't realise the last update was from the 27th before today. 

[LetItSnow!]

Looks to be coming in around a degree above the "old and cold" 1961-1990 average and within a few tenths of the modern day average. Will definitely be one of those months where the final figure doesn't tell you much about the month as a whole, with a warm and humid first-half followed by a cold second-half.

 

How times change though. September 1980 was notable for being the warmest since September 1961... with a C.E.T. of 14.6!

Edited September 30, 2022 by LetItSnow!

[summer blizzard]

When was the last colder second half.