September 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

CET averages and extremes

(all September mean CET 1981-2021 shown, warmest 13 in bold, middle 13 italic, coolest 15 underlined). 

(all data in table is now CET v2.0)

 

22.4 ... warmest day (4th, 1949)

21.4 ... warmest day in second half (21st, 2006)

16.8 ... warmest September (2006)

16.6 ... second warmest (1729)

16.3 ... third warmest (tied 1865 and 1949)

16.1 ... 5th warmest 2016

16.0 ... 6tth warmest (tied 1795, 2021)

15.7 ... 8th warmest (1760)

15.6 ... 9th warmest (tied with 1780) 1999

15.4 ... 11th warmest (1895)

15.2 ... 2005

15.1 ... 2011, 2014

14.9 ... 2004

14.8 ... 1998

14.7 ... 2000

14.6 ... 1985, 1989, 1991

14.5 ... (last occurrence 1941)

14.4 ... average 2001-2021 and 1981, 2002

14.3  ... 2003, 2009, 2019

14.2 ... average 1991-2020, 1992-2021, and  1997

14.1 ... 1982

14.0 ... average 1981-2010  and 1821-1850 (!!) ... 2020

13.9 ... 2007

13.8 ... 2010

13.7 ... average 1971-2000, 1983, 2013, 2018

13.6 ... average 1961-1990, 1984, 1987, 1995, 1996, 2017

13.5 ... average 1701-1800, 1901-2000, 2008 

13.4 ... 2001

13.36... average 1659-2021 (rounds to 13.4)

13.3 ... 1992

13.2 ... 1988, 1990

13.1 ... average 1801-1900

13.0 ..  2012

12.7 ... 1994, 2015

12.6 ... average 1659-1700

12.3 ... 1993

11.3 ... coldest since 1952 and tied (with 1829) 14th coldest (1986)

11.2 ... tied twelfth coldest (1860, 1877)

11.1 ... tied tenth coldest (1840, 1912)

11.0 ... tied seventh coldest (1672, 1687, 1691)

10.7 ... coldest September since 1807 and sixth coldest (1952)

10.6 ... fifth coldest (1703)

10.5 ... coldest (four tied, 1674,1675,1694,1807)

 6.7 ... coldest days in first half (13th and 14th, 1807)

 4.9 ... coldest day (28th, 1824)

____________________________________________________________________

Enter by the end of Wednesday, 31 August without penalty, or with increasing late penalties to end of Saturday, 3rd September.

(add your EWP forecast if you wish, to the CET entry) ...

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EWP data 1766 to 2021

 

189.8 mm __ wettest September 1766-2021 (1918)*

139.9 mm __ wettest September 1981-2021 in 1981 

102.0 mm __ wettest 30-year avg (1772-1801)

 80.9 mm ___ average all data 1766-2021

 77.2 mm __ average 1981-2010

 76.0 mm __ average 1991-2020 (76.1 mm _ 1992-2021)

 58.4 mm __ lowest 30-year avg (1888-1917)

 16.4 mm __ driest September 1981-2021 in 2014.

  _8.0 mm __driest September 1766-2021 in 1959**

_________________________________________________

* 1797 and 1799 were almost as wet at 185.4 mm and 186.8 mm.

** second driest since 1766 was 9.5 mm in 1865.

__________________________________________________

Recent EWP __ 2021 ... 67.7 ____ 2020 .. 56.1 ___ 2019 .. 124.0 __ 2018 .. 67.0 ___ 2017 .. 106.2 __ 2016 .. 72.0 ___ 2015 .. 62.7 ___

____ ____ ____ 2014 .. 16.4 _____ 2013 .. 61.8 ___ 2012 .. 92.8 ___ 2011 .. 57.0 ___ 2010 .. 86.9 ___ 2009 .. 34.0 ___ 2008 ... 103.6 ___

Enter the EWP contest on same deadlines as CET 

... good luck !! ... 

[Earthshine]

17.0C and 40 mm going for the record breaker

[Bobd29]

15C and 78mm from me please.

[NeilN]

14.5c and 110mm

I've a feeling autumn is going to make up for summer rainfall wise!

[Frigid]

Going for a chilly September, the warmth has to end at some point.

13.4C and 90mm. Thanks 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

15.4c and 90mm.

I think this September will go against the trend for being an extension of summer.

Edited August 20, 2022 by Weather Enthusiast91

[Dancerwithwings]

15.1c & 62mm

[snowray]

13.7c and 75mm please.

[summer blizzard]

14.7C, 0.5C above average. 80mm. Generally a n/s split, westerly and increasingly cyclonic.

 

 

[damianslaw]

I'll reserve projections until tail end of the month, but noting some early cold pooling over the arctic right now, and if we tap into NW/N airstreams these could be quite cold this year. All the low pressure has been bottled up to our north, and I suspect the arctic may be colder than some stages at this time of year, correct if wrong....

Today for example we only reached 17.5 degrees and from a not particularly cold westerly atlantic source..

[Weather26]

14.1C and 82.5 mm-I feel the trend we've seen all year will finally break during this month.

[SteveB]

14.9c and 86mm please

[Polar Gael]

15.3°C and 40.2mm for me please.

[SLEETY]

14.1c    79mm

[Don]

On 20/08/2022 at 08:56, Earthshine said:

17.0C and 40 mm going for the record breaker

Nope.....

[StretfordEnd1996]

15.5 for me. Within the top 10 warmest

[Earthshine]

7 minutes ago, Don said:

Nope.....

Sorry Don, crystal ball says otherwise...

[Don]

5 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

Sorry Don, crystal ball says otherwise...

Yes and it's more likely to be correct than wrong! 

[Summer18]

15.5C and 72mm

[richie3846]

15.5c please 

[Shillitocettwo]

On 20/08/2022 at 08:56, Earthshine said:

17.0C and 40 mm going for the record breaker

I went for a 17.C last September and for a good proportion of the month the CET was running somewhat higher but it got obliterated by a cold end!

[Shillitocettwo]

   This will be a warm September, not quite record CET but up there in top few at 16.5.C feeling every bit as warm as an 'average' July. 

   Two more heatwaves to go, one early doors with a few 30.Cs about and another late doors with a feed of continental air and 29.C realised. However, mid month will see a sudden return to the cool one front after another pattern bringing much needed rain and a wetter than average 88mm.

[StretfordEnd1996]

9 minutes ago, Don said:

Bad news for those wanting a .... ......

Could you elaborate in any way shape or form? Seems a little confusing to include a game of hangman on the end of your post..?

 

I have gone for 15.5 which I didn't know would put it in the top 10 warmest but 15.5 CET September just doesn't feel out of the ordinary these days when making this prediction.

[BlueHedgehog074]

I’m also going to go for 15.5*C please

[Don]

42 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

Could you elaborate in any way shape or form? Seems a little confusing to include a game of hangman on the end of your post..?

It was tongue in cheek.  Have now hidden the post!