September 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Don]

53 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

15.5c to the 23rd

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average
1.1c above the 81 to 10 average

Decline should start to accelerate now.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP update, current value around 65 mm (62.5 mm to 22nd). Looks to add 10-12 mm grid average, to end up 75-77 mm. 

CET estimate 14.5 due to some very cool readings Tues-Wed, not all that warm other days either. 

An average of 10 for seven days (24-30) would leave the CET at 14.2 C. I think it will be closer to 11 for an average which leaves it closer to 14.5. 

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

EWP update, current value around 65 mm (62.5 mm to 22nd). Looks to add 10-12 mm grid average, to end up 75-77 mm. 

CET estimate 14.5 due to some very cool readings Tues-Wed, not all that warm other days either. 

An average of 10 for seven days (24-30) would leave the CET at 14.2 C. I think it will be closer to 11 for an average which leaves it closer to 14.5. 

A mean between 10 and 11 would be quite a notable cold end to the month 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 15.5C +0.8C above normal. rainfall unchanged.

Looks like we will end up between 14.6C and 14.9C for sunny Sheffield which sticks the month close to average.

Edited September 25, 2022 by The PIT

[damianslaw]

May be one of those months with a classic downslope from start to finish with no upturns.

[Summer Sun]

15.4c to the 24th

1.8c above the 61 to 90 average
1.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[Don]

10 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

15.4c to the 24th

1.8c above the 61 to 90 average
1.1c above the 81 to 10 average

I thought that would have been on 15.3C today.  Was yesterday warmer than expected?

[richie3846]

1 minute ago, Don said:

I thought that would have been on 15.3C today.  Was yesterday warmer than expected?

I just looked on weather online for yesterday,17 to 18c day/around 8c night, for a ballpark estimation. Probably around average for late September.

[Roger J Smith]

The mean was 11.8 so it must have been a rounding situation as that would drop 15.50 to 15.35. So the earlier 15.5 was no doubt a bit higher than 15.50. 

[Roger J Smith]

The output looks similar to what we discussed yesterday, these CET daily changes will probably alternate 0.1 and 0.2 as they look set to average 0.15 a day (30th a bit warmer may not drop much). The EWP will be under some upward pressure on the last day with heavy rains arriving in the north but the grid average plus current 65 mm looks to be around 77-78 mm for a finish. 

[Weather26]

1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

The output looks similar to what we discussed yesterday, these CET daily changes will probably alternate 0.1 and 0.2 as they look set to average 0.15 a day (30th a bit warmer may not drop much). The EWP will be under some upward pressure on the last day with heavy rains arriving in the north but the grid average plus current 65 mm looks to be around 77-78 mm for a finish. 

Yep-It's looking like Friday might be the day to watch in terms of rain.

[Summer Sun]

15.2c to the 25th

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average
0.9c above the 81 to 10 average

[Don]

22 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

15.2c to the 25th

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average
0.9c above the 81 to 10 average

Should be on 15.0C tomorrow with an outside chance of 14.9?

[Roger J Smith]

Looks like the 15.2 may be rounded down from 15.24 or so, that would probably rule out a drop as big as 0.3 and don't be surprised if it's 0.1 as these cooler days are taking off about 0.15 each time so it may tend to go alternately 0.1 and 0.2. Anything under 10 C might be good enough for another 0.2 drop though. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 15.3C +0.9C above normal. Rainfall 43.2mm 65.7% of the monthly average.

Looks like we will finish between 14.6C and 14.8C.  Looking like we will fail to make average rainfall possible getting to 88% if any of the rain turns up. Days to watch out for here are Wednesday and Friday. GFS has them both wet but GFS latest version has always over done the rainfall by quite a bit.

[damianslaw]

Nothing overly mild on the way next 4 days, indeed cool for late September. My guess is 0.2 drop tomorrow, then a further 0.3-0.4 drop until 30th. A good bet a finish of 14.6 degrees.

[Don]

45 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Nothing overly mild on the way next 4 days, indeed cool for late September. My guess is 0.2 drop tomorrow, then a further 0.3-0.4 drop until 30th. A good bet a finish of 14.6 degrees.

My CET guess might end up being too high for once, well since June!

Edited September 26, 2022 by Don

[richie3846]

3 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Looks like the 15.2 may be rounded down from 15.24 or so, that would probably rule out a drop as big as 0.3 and don't be surprised if it's 0.1 as these cooler days are taking off about 0.15 each time so it may tend to go alternately 0.1 and 0.2. Anything under 10 C might be good enough for another 0.2 drop though. 

Yes I suspect only 0.1c will be taken off on tomorrow's update, because the weather front cloud kept the lows fairly high, 10 to 11c quite widely this morning, offsetting the cooler 14 to 15c maxes somewhat.

[Don]

1 hour ago, richie3846 said:

Yes I suspect only 0.1c will be taken off on tomorrow's update, because the weather front cloud kept the lows fairly high, 10 to 11c quite widely this morning, offsetting the cooler 14 to 15c maxes somewhat.

Tonight should ensure a larger drop for Wednesday's update.

[Summer Sun]

15.0c to the 26th

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.8c above the 81 to 10 average

[Don]

32 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

15.0c to the 26th

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.8c above the 81 to 10 average

Did get a drop of 0.2C after all then.  Will be sub 15C tomorrow.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

3 hours ago, Don said:

Did get a drop of 0.2C after all then.  Will be sub 15C tomorrow.

My forecast of 14.7 is now looking on the warm side

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 15.2C +0.8C above average. Rainfall unchanged.

Looking like we will end up at 14.6C to 14.8C.

Considering we were over 2C above normal early in the month it has been quite an impressive drop.

Edited September 27, 2022 by The PIT

[Don]

14 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

My forecast of 14.7 is now looking on the warm side

So is my 14.8 but not complaining! 

[Frigid]

 My 14.4C guess isn't looking too bad now. Thought I'd have no chance around two weeks ago. Could be very close!