September 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 15.6C +0.6C above average. Rainfall 41.2mm 62.6% of the monthly average.

[Roger J Smith]

2 hours ago, Don said:

CET perhaps stabilising for the next couple of days before declining again from Saturday?

Think so, Don, the current guidance gives us about 14.7 and 75 mm as the end result. 

[Maz]

Whilst it is hard for September to bring any real extremes, this September has seen an unusual degree of variation.  Warm high pressure, warm cyclonic, cool northerly, current fairly typical benign mild high, then another unusually extended northerly.  It’s interesting.

[Don]

47 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Think so, Don, the current guidance gives us about 14.7 and 75 mm as the end result. 

That would mean I'll be pretty close with my guesses at 14.8 and 77mm!

Edited September 21, 2022 by Don

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, Maz said:

Whilst it is hard for September to bring any real extremes, this September has seen an unusual degree of variation.  Warm high pressure, warm cyclonic, cool northerly, current fairly typical benign mild high, then another unusually extended northerly.  It’s interesting.

Yes despite me bemoaning the currwnt benign conditions, it is turning into a more varied September than usual.

Unusually the warmth has been associated with more cyclonic conditions.  A couple of potent northerlies bringing quite cold conditions - the next one looks cold. The CET will disguise the variability.

[Frigid]

51 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Yes despite me bemoaning the currwnt benign conditions, it is turning into a more varied September than usual.

Unusually the warmth has been associated with more cyclonic conditions.  A couple of potent northerlies bringing quite cold conditions - the next one looks cold. The CET will disguise the variability.

If there's a continuation of the cool weather as the GFS 12Z suggests, it would be quite interesting to see the CET from 10th Sep to 10th Oct. The first 10 days has really screwed over the chances of a very cool September

[Summer Sun]

15.6c to the 21st

2.1c above the 61 to 90 average
1.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

Should see a continued drop through rest of the month, perhaps more notably so for a time. Good chance could easily knock off 1 degree.

September is perhaps the most cooling of months, early Sept often warm, the last few days usually much cooler. October though equally if not more so a cooling month.

March and April equal probably the most warming month. 

[richie3846]

It's been remarkably dry again for the last 10 to 12 days round these parts. With so many fine afternoons, and a sunnier period than the start of the month, how it's felt, seems to defy the dramatic cooldown we've experienced. 

A month of 3 phases IMO. A very warm wet start, with no sun. A typical, usable middle part, though I understand it probably felt cooler in the North of the CET zone. And now a final 3rd with some below average temps, maybe average by end of month. 

If we end the month around average temp, I feel that is fitting for a month that came in so far above, and ends so far below.

[Derecho]

2 hours ago, richie3846 said:

If we end the month around average temp, I feel that is fitting for a month that came in so far above, and ends so far below.

We'd need the remainder of September to be way colder then normal to reach the 1961-1990 average, aside from early next week it's looking like pretty standard September weather.

Much of this September has felt pretty typical if not rather settled. The opening week however was far above normal and that has offset the CET a lot.

Something around the late 14s would be my best guess. Signs are we could see something above normal again by early October.

[damianslaw]

10 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

We'd need the remainder of September to be way colder then normal to reach the 1961-1990 average, aside from early next week it's looking like pretty standard September weather.

Much of this September has felt pretty typical if not rather settled. The opening week however was far above normal and that has offset the CET a lot.

Something around the late 14s would be my best guess. Signs are we could see something above normal again by early October.

Difference with this September's warmth and that of most September's is it was unusually wet and cloudy with it. Only the far SE experienced sunny drt warmth mid month briefly. Consequently for many especially further north it will be a September with minimal warm dry weather, the dry weather has come with average temps.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 15.7C +0.8C above average. Rainfall unchanged.

[Don]

59 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Something around the late 14s would be my best guess. Signs are we could see something above normal again by early October.

Yes, I would say a likely final CET figure around the 14.5-14.8C mark.

[Derecho]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Difference with this September's warmth and that of most September's is it was unusually wet and cloudy with it. Only the far SE experienced sunny drt warmth mid month briefly. Consequently for many especially further north it will be a September with minimal warm dry weather, the dry weather has come with average temps.

The maximums for that spell weren't even anything to write home about, just consistently warm, it was the frequent minima in the high teens that really held the CET up.

Aside from that thundery opening week, its been a reasonable September here, fairly cloudy at times but also some sunny days and plenty of useable weather.

[richie3846]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Difference with this September's warmth and that of most September's is it was unusually wet and cloudy with it. Only the far SE experienced sunny drt warmth mid month briefly. Consequently for many especially further north it will be a September with minimal warm dry weather, the dry weather has come with average temps.

Yes, I guess average temps down south in mid September are actually pretty reasonable, whilst further north probably not so summery feeling. Most definitely in this neck of the woods we've had a number of mid September afternoons one could describe as summery.

[damianslaw]

16 minutes ago, richie3846 said:

Yes, I guess average temps down south in mid September are actually pretty reasonable, whilst further north probably not so summery feeling. Most definitely in this neck of the woods we've had a number of mid September afternoons one could describe as summery.

Summer ended firmly 31 August here this year.

[Summer Sun]

15.6c to the 22nd

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average
1.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

A finish in the mid to high 14s quite likely.

[Don]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

A finish in the mid to high 14s quite likely.

Yep, looking that way, just a pity the month started so warm!  However, at least a dreaded 15C plus looks unlikely now!!

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 15.6C +0.8C above normal. Rainfall 41.7mm 63.4% of the monthly average.

Won't be any change tomorrow due to the warmer day than expected.

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 15.6C +0.9C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

Final figure here looks to be between 14.5 and 14.9C.

[Don]

17 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Sunny Sheffield still at 15.6C +0.9C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

Final figure here looks to be between 14.5 and 14.9C.

Mirrors the overall CET very well then!

[richie3846]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Mirrors the overall CET very well then!

Seems like even with this northerly, the month will be slightly above average, could be close though, the run of above average months has to end eventually!

[Don]

3 minutes ago, richie3846 said:

Seems like even with this northerly, the month will be slightly above average, could be close though, the run of above average months has to end eventually!

It's all due to the very warm first 10 days.  We would have needed a notable cold spell to bring the CET down to average.

Edited September 24, 2022 by Don

[Summer Sun]

15.5c to the 23rd

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average
1.1c above the 81 to 10 average