Record Warm Atlantic SST's discussion & possible effects

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Kinda forgot I'd started this thread last year. Super interesting that it's almost a total flip from where those SST's were running anomalously hot with that zone off the Eastern Seaboard > Newfoundland looking cool > cold especially in comparison with the other parts of the Atlantic, those who follow my model thread posts know I've showed how the MDR zone has been the main focus of the super hot SST's that has now been joined with our part of the Atlantic close to Ireland and also the North Sea with the highest category of marine heatwave now declared (that has been a common occurrence in the northern parts of the Pacific in recent years). This will have a huge impact on all marine life and I just wonder if this could be THE year for the first official confirmation of Great White sharks in UK waters  

 

[LetItSnow!]

I wonder will this increase the likelihood of extended warm to hot weather into the autumn. Would sustained northerly blasts be enough to cool it down? Something unlikely to happen anyway. 

[reef]

1 hour ago, LetItSnow! said:

I wonder will this increase the likelihood of extended warm to hot weather into the autumn. Would sustained northerly blasts be enough to cool it down? Something unlikely to happen anyway. 

I wouldn't be surprised to see a well above average Autumn and first half of winter. This period is more dependent on latent heat rather than the sun and there's plenty of that!

It could of course be overridden if we get decent synoptics. A potent easterly and that warm North Sea would be a mega snow machine. It does however mean any weaker setups would be the wrong side of marginal.

More of interest is how high can it go? I would be quite something if we were to have waters >20C around parts of the UK. We're above 15C widely now and its only June, so a warm rest of the summer and it could well happen.

[LetItSnow!]

1 hour ago, reef said:

I wouldn't be surprised to see a well above average Autumn and first half of winter. This period is more dependent on latent heat rather than the sun and there's plenty of that!

It could of course be overridden if we get decent synoptics. A potent easterly and that warm North Sea would be a mega snow machine. It does however mean any weaker setups would be the wrong side of marginal.

More of interest is how high can it go? I would be quite something if we were to have waters >20C around parts of the UK. We're above 15C widely now and its only June, so a warm rest of the summer and it could well happen.

As Damian said though, UK centred highs and easterly winds won't be as affected I don't think seeing as the easterlies early in the month were super chilly. It would affect marginal easterlies though. Let's hope for some mega easterly beasts autumn 2023 and winter 2023/2024!

[Don]

10 hours ago, reef said:

More of interest is how high can it go? I would be quite something if we were to have waters >20C around parts of the UK. We're above 15C widely now and its only June, so a warm rest of the summer and it could well happen.

I'm hoping the North Atlantic SST's will stabilise between now and the end of summer.  However, that's probably wishful thinking!

[Bradley in Kent]

We'll have to see if the SSTs continue to rise through the Summer or if they'll plateau. If they keep rising it'll be one humid late Summer / Autumn. 

It's been noticeable how it's felt like August of late in terms of evening temps and humidity.

[damianslaw]

20 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Kinda forgot I'd started this thread last year. Super interesting that it's almost a total flip from where those SST's were running anomalously hot with that zone off the Eastern Seaboard > Newfoundland looking cool > cold especially in comparison with the other parts of the Atlantic, those who follow my model thread posts know I've showed how the MDR zone has been the main focus of the super hot SST's that has now been joined with our part of the Atlantic close to Ireland and also the North Sea with the highest category of marine heatwave now declared (that has been a common occurrence in the northern parts of the Pacific in recent years). This will have a huge impact on all marine life and I just wonder if this could be THE year for the first official confirmation of Great White sharks in UK waters  

 

Interesting reference to 2005. The summer was mixed but rather warm. I think Sept and Oct were both very mild and dry, a flip to cold second half Nov. The hurricane season was very active. I think there was a tripole. The winter was very blocked and near average but quite cold, not far off a very cold one. 

[richie3846]

I'm hearing that the warmer seas may not have as much impact on land temperatures during the summer. This does make sense given the power of the sun this time of year. I wonder if the sea temperatures could have a more localised impact, specifically for costal areas. Maybe by day, if the sea breeze is lessened, but especially by night. Coastal areas tend to experience very warm nights later in the summer, I remember this from when I lived in Swansea. With SSTs potentially in the low 20s in the coming weeks, there could be some very sultry nights for those on the sea front. Nothing to challenge last year's night records, but I suggest that if last year hadn't had happened, we might have been talking about night high minima records this year. 

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, richie3846 said:

I'm hearing that the warmer seas may not have as much impact on land temperatures during the summer. This does make sense given the power of the sun this time of year. I wonder if the sea temperatures could have a more localised impact, specifically for costal areas. Maybe by day, if the sea breeze is lessened, but especially by night. Coastal areas tend to experience very warm nights later in the summer, I remember this from when I lived in Swansea. With SSTs potentially in the low 20s in the coming weeks, there could be some very sultry nights for those on the sea front. Nothing to challenge last year's night records, but I suggest that if last year hadn't had happened, we might have been talking about night high minima records this year. 

It does make a lot of sense, especially if winds come from the Continent; but, should winds come from the Atlantic, maybe less so. And, as we move into autumn, things might be even weirder? 

[Man With Beard]

We'll find out the impacts on temperatures next week I guess - very westerly week coming up!

[Earthshine]

I expect SST will continue to increase through the summer.  The reason they are usually cool at this time of year is due to significant lag.  There is a huge amount of energy being absorbed by the oceans at the moment, exacerbated by increased greenhouse gas emission, reduction in sulphur dioxide (IMO 2020 regulation changes), etc.  Think the CET could be held up quite significantly.  Even if daytime maxima aren't particularly high the absence of anything remotely cold (bar northerly winds) will prevent the CET dropping much at all.  I expect the chance of having all three summer months recording a 17°C+ CET is as high as it's ever been!

[Cheshire Freeze]

How deep do these anomalies run below the surface few metres? As I understand it it’s a shallow layer of exceptional relative warmth?

An active Atlantic period with multiple deep depressions in the autumn will probably be enough to churn the water over and dampen the anomalies.

[Don]

Interesting Met Office video looking into the record high SST's.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Remember also that these are anomalies. The SSTs can still rise over summer but if they rise at a slower rate to usual the anomalies can fall back somewhat.

[Mapantz]

I don't suppose anyone has the SST's from the same period in 2013? I'd be interested to see them..

[Metwatch]

1 hour ago, Earthshine said:

I expect SST will continue to increase through the summer.  The reason they are usually cool at this time of year is due to significant lag.  There is a huge amount of energy being absorbed by the oceans at the moment, exacerbated by increased greenhouse gas emission, reduction in sulphur dioxide (IMO 2020 regulation changes), etc.  Think the CET could be held up quite significantly.  Even if daytime maxima aren't particularly high the absence of anything remotely cold (bar northerly winds) will prevent the CET dropping much at all.  I expect the chance of having all three summer months recording a 17°C+ CET is as high as it's ever been!

Looks like we have only had one other summer with all 3 months that had a CET of 17C or above, and that was 1826.

1976 used to be another one, but the June CET has been dropped to 16.9C.

Impressive if 2023 can pull it! 

[alexisj9]

On 06/09/2022 at 08:43, sundog said:

What also happened to the thinking that the gulf stream was slowing down?

I've a question here, if the cold from the artic was traveling down as usual, would this warm anomaly be happening? Surely there should be a cold stream of water at least, where is it. I know cold goes down and warm up, but there's usually at least some mixing, and you can see where the gulf streams cold sister is.

[alexisj9]

On 07/09/2022 at 20:19, SqueakheartLW said:

More traction coming for a possible tripole later in the autumn when you see the SSTA charts and the changes in the last 7 days

Tropical Tidbits

Firstly tropical tidbits and their current SSTA chart as well as the 7 day change

SSTA                                                           Change

The key thing I have noticed here is how the warmest anomalies in the N Atlantic appear to be shifting slightly further towards Greenland. This is backed up by that warming signal to the south of Greenland on the 7 day change chart. At the same time it appears to be cooling down in the more central parts of the N Atlantic, particularly in the eastern part near Europe. That blue blob on the 7 day change chart confirms this and the general pattern of warming and cooling anomalies looks interesting from a coldies point of view anyway.

NOAA

Does NOAA back what Tropical Tidbits is showing?

SSTA 1 week ago (30th August)            SSTA latest (6th September)                7 day SST change

There is some sort of agreement here although NOAA appears to have a warmer bias to the anomalies compared with Tropical Tidbits but the general pattern is still similar. That very warm region in the N Atlantic appears to have got even warmer in the last week and that red area on the 7 day change reflects this and just like with Tropical Tidbits this appears to have expanded northwards somewhat as well. The cooling shows up as well particularly in the eastern Atlantic as well as a warming signal in the tropical Atlantic, all very much a forming tripole signal.

If we keep those very warm anomalies and they end up sitting just south of Greenland this could help to promote some monster blocking ridges near or over Greenland later this year. Combine this with a continued cooling down of the SST's near the UK and Europe as well as in the Norwegian Sea and things will start to look more interesting for coldies later in the year.

Ok you've answered my question I think, the cooling areas will be were the cold water from the artic is mixing in.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

I don't suppose anyone has the SST's from the same period in 2013? I'd be interested to see them..

I can get whichever dates in specific months your wanting but here's 2013 (nearest dates available are 17th + 20th) and latest for 2023 is 19th 

2013

 

2023 

Similar in the northern section of the Pacific  

I've also got a possible link to the cold SSTs I spoke about off Newfoundland 

 

[reef]

GFS SST charts for the North Atlantic / Europe for 19th June 2013 and 19th June 2023. Massive difference:

[Scorcher]

The west of Ireland must be having high minima at the moment given how warm the SSTs are off the coast. You'd imagine much of the UK and Ireland would be likely to be a lot warmer than usual overnight this summer given the situation.

I've often noticed that even in hot continental flows in summer, minima here are usually noticeably lower than on the near continent. I can only assume this is because of the relatively cold seas that surround us as nobody is that far away from the influence of the sea in the UK/Ireland. 

[damianslaw]

Haven't Atlantic SST's been anonomously warm for a while? Last summer they were. Someone mentioned 2005 as a good analogue.

[LetItSnow!]

11 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Haven't Atlantic SST's been anonomously warm for a while? Last summer they were. Someone mentioned 2005 as a good analogue.

I think a summer like 2005 would please most here, seeing as July and August had a bit of everything. Never excessively hot but with often hot spells and cool, unsettled spells. Very typical British summer (less so June which like this month was very warm), similar in that respect to the summer of 2001.

[daz_4]

12 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Haven't Atlantic SST's been anonomously warm for a while? Last summer they were. Someone mentioned 2005 as a good analogue.

I don't think we have a good analogue for what is happening now. This year is in a league of it's own.

[richie3846]

26 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

I don't think we have a good analogue for what is happening now. This year is in a league of it's own.

I don't think anyone knows with confidence. On the met office 10 day trend, the presenter suggested more rain and a little warmer than a typical westerly for next week, but his tone suggested he wasn't confident at all.