Record Warm Atlantic SST's discussion & possible effects

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Think it's worth it's own thread and will be very interesting to see any effects on upcoming weather patterns

 

 

 

Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction

WWW.NATURE.COM

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This study presents a last millennium reconstruction of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability fluctuations. This sufficiently long and validated reconstruction...

 

 

 

[FetchCB]

Instinctively you lean towards more storms. The heat content providing fuel for tropical systems that would last longer, plunges from the Arctic creating rapid cyclogenesis? 

How much of that affects us I'm not sure but I think the NE US are in for a lively autumn /winter 

[Scorcher]

What happened to the cold blob then that people have been talking about for such a long time now?

Hard to imagine how this autumn can be anything above average with such warm SSTs in the N Atlantic.

[sundog]

What also happened to the thinking that the gulf stream was slowing down?

[Don]

7 hours ago, FetchCB said:

Instinctively you lean towards more storms. The heat content providing fuel for tropical systems that would last longer, plunges from the Arctic creating rapid cyclogenesis? 

How much of that affects us I'm not sure but I think the NE US are in for a lively autumn /winter 

Wouldn't that increase the chance of a stronger jet stream which would potentially give the UK and Western Europe an exceptionally stormy autumn/early winter?

[SqueakheartLW]

10 hours ago, sundog said:

What also happened to the thinking that the gulf stream was slowing down?

It could be because of this very thing.

A slower gulf stream means less of the heat gets transported into the Arctic regions.

The response to this is more of the warmer water hanging around in the Atlantic instead so we see the warm anomalies

[FetchCB]

5 hours ago, Don said:

Wouldn't that increase the chance of a stronger jet stream which would potentially give the UK and Western Europe an exceptionally stormy autumn/early winter?

That was my thinking 

[FetchCB]

2 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

It could be because of this very thing.

A slower gulf stream means less of the heat gets transported into the Arctic regions.

The response to this is more of the warmer water hanging around in the Atlantic instead so we see the warm anomalies

That was the premise behind the film day after tomorrow, cold Arctic meltwater overturning the Gulf Stream eventually shutting it down 

[damianslaw]

Always thought a warmer atlantic promotes high pressure. Many recent stormy winters have been aided by cold blob to our NW. Generally colder SST's result in even sharper temp gradient with the tropics fuelling the jet.

[Snowy L]

4 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Always thought a warmer atlantic promotes high pressure. Many recent stormy winters have been aided by cold blob to our NW. Generally colder SST's result in even sharper temp gradient with the tropics fuelling the jet.

Yes and there's also a cooler anomaly in the mid Atlantic too so can't be much of a gradient over a very large area too.

[Cheshire Freeze]

If anything the jet could be pulled further S than usual with a stronger S arm.

Just too chaotic a system to know just how it’ll influence winter.

Edited September 6, 2022 by CreweCold

[Don]

59 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

That was the premise behind the film day after tomorrow, cold Arctic meltwater overturning the Gulf Stream eventually shutting it down 

The Day after Tomorrow film came to my mind too with the warm Atlantic!

[Sunshineandshowers84]

If this is the case looks like deeper Lows than usual first half of winter. Wasn’t late 2014 this way with record SSTs. First part of that winter was constant Lows from Atlantic with lots of showery/thundery weather following behind cold fronts. Last number of winters have not seen Highs to our East bringing cold but dry weather for a number of weeks. Just been constantly Wet with Atlantic Lows.

[Don]

55 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

If anything the jet could be pulled further S than usual with a stronger S arm.

Just too chaotic a system to know just how it’ll influence winter.

Something else to factor in looking ahead to winter!

1 minute ago, Sunshineandshowers84 said:

If this is the case looks like deeper Lows than usual first half of winter. Wasn’t late 2014 this way with record SSTs. First part of that winter was constant Lows from Atlantic with lots of showery/thundery weather following behind cold fronts. Last number of winters have not seen Highs to our East bringing cold but dry weather for a number of weeks. Just been constantly Wet with Atlantic Lows.

I'm not sure about 2014?  I thought the Atlantic was colder to our north west that winter, hence why we had some colder zonality? 

[Cheshire Freeze]

17 minutes ago, Don said:

Something else to factor in looking ahead to winter!

In my eyes it's entirely plausible we see a cold trough scenario this coming winter with us sitting towards the N of the PFJ. This would allow cold air to be sucked into the N side of LP crossing the UK. 

[damianslaw]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

In my eyes it's entirely plausible we see a cold trough scenario this coming winter with us sitting towards the N of the PFJ. This would allow cold air to be sucked into the N side of LP crossing the UK. 

Perhaps what we have now but by winter much colder air to our north.. or would we need the low to be to our south a bit more and not hang in situ to our SW for so long..

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Something else to factor in looking ahead to winter!

I'm not sure about 2014?  I thought the Atlantic was colder to our north west that winter, hence why we had some colder zonality? 

 

1 hour ago, Sunshineandshowers84 said:

If this is the case looks like deeper Lows than usual first half of winter. Wasn’t late 2014 this way with record SSTs. First part of that winter was constant Lows from Atlantic with lots of showery/thundery weather following behind cold fronts. Last number of winters have not seen Highs to our East bringing cold but dry weather for a number of weeks. Just been constantly Wet with Atlantic Lows.

Here's the SST's for this week and same week in 2014

 

maybe slight similarities around greenland, pretty large differences elsewhere

 

[SqueakheartLW]

More traction coming for a possible tripole later in the autumn when you see the SSTA charts and the changes in the last 7 days

Tropical Tidbits

Firstly tropical tidbits and their current SSTA chart as well as the 7 day change

SSTA                                                           Change

The key thing I have noticed here is how the warmest anomalies in the N Atlantic appear to be shifting slightly further towards Greenland. This is backed up by that warming signal to the south of Greenland on the 7 day change chart. At the same time it appears to be cooling down in the more central parts of the N Atlantic, particularly in the eastern part near Europe. That blue blob on the 7 day change chart confirms this and the general pattern of warming and cooling anomalies looks interesting from a coldies point of view anyway.

NOAA

Does NOAA back what Tropical Tidbits is showing?

SSTA 1 week ago (30th August)            SSTA latest (6th September)                7 day SST change

There is some sort of agreement here although NOAA appears to have a warmer bias to the anomalies compared with Tropical Tidbits but the general pattern is still similar. That very warm region in the N Atlantic appears to have got even warmer in the last week and that red area on the 7 day change reflects this and just like with Tropical Tidbits this appears to have expanded northwards somewhat as well. The cooling shows up as well particularly in the eastern Atlantic as well as a warming signal in the tropical Atlantic, all very much a forming tripole signal.

If we keep those very warm anomalies and they end up sitting just south of Greenland this could help to promote some monster blocking ridges near or over Greenland later this year. Combine this with a continued cooling down of the SST's near the UK and Europe as well as in the Norwegian Sea and things will start to look more interesting for coldies later in the year.

[damianslaw]

Warm anomalies in the Labrador Strait I think are conducive to big Greenland ridging and deep trough to the west.. conversely colder waters in said region and south of Greenland tend to spawn cyclogenesis and low pressure to the east i.e. towards Iceland and UK..

Edited September 7, 2022 by damianslaw

[Frost HoIIow]

21 hours ago, CreweCold said:

In my eyes it's entirely plausible we see a cold trough scenario this coming winter with us sitting towards the N of the PFJ. This would allow cold air to be sucked into the N side of LP crossing the UK. 

That's why I'm thinking of booking a few days in the Scottish Highlands some point in the winter when a proper heavy snowfall is expected. Hopefully good photos and interesting walking conditions should conditions be met.

[Don]

1 hour ago, SqueakheartLW said:

 

Thanks for the update!

Also nice to see some cooling in the North Eastern Pacific, too.

[Premiere Neige]

Further cooling in the Pacific to the south of Alaska. Cooling taking place off the Eastern seaboard of the U.S. but still warming around Greenland. 

[Penrith Snow]

Very cold air leaving Canada is going to result in explosive depressions forming over these waters then heading to Europe, yes the track might be further south but surely a wet winter is a dead cert?

Then again as someone said high SSTs support high pressure but I still think a wet winter is now very likely.

Andy

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Penrith Snow said:

Very cold air leaving Canada is going to result in explosive depressions forming over these waters then heading to Europe, yes the track might be further south but surely a wet winter is a dead cert?

Then again as someone said high SSTs support high pressure but I still think a wet winter is now very likely.

Andy

Cold zonality possibly, low pressure more southerly, battleground snow/rain, north in polar air.. we shall see.. I think high pressure could well be more stubborn though especially earlier in the season.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 10/09/2022 at 16:25, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

 that's syncing in with my thoughts I mentioned previously, I was wondering if the warm Atlantic would lead to HIGH pressure as its done for a number of consecutive winters over in the Pacific with the high SST's there