Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat

[Skullzrulerz]

1 hour ago, iceman1991 said:

October update

November to January

The likelihood of a colder three month period overall is slightly greater than normal.

There is a reduced chance of wet conditions and impacts from heavy rainfall.

Chances of dry conditions are greater than normal.

Stormy conditions, and impacts from high winds, are less likely than normal.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-ndj-v1.pdf
 

must be confident for this

While I'm not exactly have the best of confidence in long range forecasting and outlooks.

The met office be on something if they are expecting a "sightly greater" chance of colder winter.

We shall see

[Methuselah]

Well, no sign of any imminent mid-Atlantic ridge appearing this week, according to the UK Met:

What I don't get is why anyone would want one anyway -- in a modern November; SSTs, in both the North Atlantic and the North Sea are still above the long-tern average -- what were wonderful synoptics in November 1965 mightn't be nearly so wonderful in 2022. Unless one enjoys cold, driving rain that is!

[RJBingham]

1 hour ago, iceman1991 said:

October update

November to January

The likelihood of a colder three month period overall is slightly greater than normal.

There is a reduced chance of wet conditions and impacts from heavy rainfall.

Chances of dry conditions are greater than normal.

Stormy conditions, and impacts from high winds, are less likely than normal.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-ndj-v1.pdf
 

must be confident for this

I'm guessing this one won't me met with usual chorus of offended disbelief. 

[Yarmy]

That MetO contingency forecast identifies the 2 specific drivers being La Nina and the -IOD.

But same time last year was also La Nina and -IOD (albeit weaker), so not sure why the forecast is different this time. 

FWIW, this is the one year I'd prefer a milder winter (for obvious reasons), so it would be typical if it ended up being colder.

[northwestsnow]

EC 46 ditches any notion of High Lat blocking.

I suspect the stubbornness of Euro heights underestimated.. 

Edited October 31, 2022 by northwestsnow

[johncam]

No great suprise there mate , typical 

[Bristawl Si]

Posted this in the Mod thread earlier, in response to Crewe's comment about needing Iberian High to do one this Winter:

AEMET Spanish met office predicting warmer temps than average and normal rainfall levels for mainland Spain Nov to Jan, so prob indicates the Iberian High will be hanging around for a while, in some form, with only temporary 'interruptions'. For the Balearics and Eastern coastal areas of Spain higher than norm rainfall, which likely indicates low pressure systems affecting the Med itself.

[northwestsnow]

Maybe I was a tad OTT with my description.

Born out of disappointment really, the strong signal for a block,originally N Atlantic,then UK now its pretty much gone ..

Rogue run,perhaps  .

[Uncertainty]

35 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Maybe I was a tad OTT with my description.

Born out of disappointment really, the strong signal for a block,originally N Atlantic,then UK now its pretty much gone ..

Rogue run,perhaps  .

It was a very flat set earlier on… the week 5 signal is pretty meh but it does make a comeback early December. It’s all a bit confused at present NWS. I get the feeling it could go either way…

[blizzard81]

38 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Maybe I was a tad OTT with my description.

Born out of disappointment really, the strong signal for a block,originally N Atlantic,then UK now its pretty much gone ..

Rogue run,perhaps  .

Not surprised when it was run off this morning's run. Which was on the back of 3 days modelling on the trot of hyper PV bloating. Until this evening's run which has totally rowed back on the inflated PV. If this new trend continues over the next couple of days, I expect the blocking scenario to make a comeback on Thursday evening's update. In fact I wouldn't be surprised to see the return of the high latitude blocking as opposed to UK blocking. 

[Froze were the Days]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

EC 46 ditches any notion of High Lat blocking.

I suspect the stubbornness of Euro heights underestimated.. 

The words chocolate and teapot come to mind...

[bluearmy]

15 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

The words chocolate and teapot come to mind...

The signal for higher anoms and slp remains beyond week 3. Detail at that range pointless as has always been the case. 

[Don]

7 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, I think 25% chance of being in the coldest 20% by climatology, is the Met Office equivalent of a ramp in this day and age!  Very unusual for these to lean even slightly towards colder than average in winter these days.  

One thing I question with these Met Office contingency updates, why do they produce them just prior to the next LRF update?

[Don]

2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Maybe I was a tad OTT with my description.

Born out of disappointment really, the strong signal for a block,originally N Atlantic,then UK now its pretty much gone ..

Rogue run,perhaps  .

Still looks fairly 'blocky' late November onwards?!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Interestingly the CFS is backing away from a strongly +NAO January, the deep blues over Greenland have gone...looks to be in between signals

Edited October 31, 2022 by CreweCold

[bluearmy]

Cansips update is nothing major change from previous output. Feb is meh. Coldies looking for snow rather than frost could do with lower anoms to our south. I’d say inconclusive but still in the raffle. We’ve seen a lot of Atlantic systems sliding nw/se against rising heights to our east and southeast over the past six months. These charts are on that page. 

dec                                                                   Jan 

        

[Uncertainty]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Cansips update is nothing major change from previous output. Feb is meh. Coldies looking for snow rather than frost could do with lower anoms to our south. I’d say inconclusive but still in the raffle. We’ve seen a lot of Atlantic systems sliding nw/se against rising heights to our east and southeast over the past six months. These charts are on that page. 

dec                                                                   Jan 

        

Thanks BA. It’s not quite as eye opening as last months output, but it’s definitely still on the same page. Quite a lot of the euro models had these sceuro anoms. 
 

I think at the moment we have the modelling to support an anticyclonic first half of winter, frosty and possibly cold at the surface.

Certainly the potential for something more than that to manifest, but nothing definitive yet.

[Beanz]

All looking quite positive for a chilly, frosty winter, surprisingly positive MetO update.  
 

game on!!
 

 

[Don]

1 hour ago, Beanz said:

All looking quite positive for a chilly, frosty winter, surprisingly positive MetO update.  
 

game on!!
 

 

Yes, the Met Office update was certainly a positive step in the right direction!

[Froze were the Days]

As if the MetO have been accurate when predicting colder than average conditions of recent years...they're usually caught out when going for a greater chance of milder conditions (trying to think when that was, as we haven't had a colder than average winter in yonks) maybe 2012/13?

[Don]

24 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

As if the MetO have been accurate when predicting colder than average conditions of recent years...they're usually caught out when going for a greater chance of milder conditions (trying to think when that was, as we haven't had a colder than average winter in yonks) maybe 2012/13?

I think it was 2009/10.

Lets hope they go mild again with their next update at the end of this month!! 

[Downburst]

Although the met office are going for an average winter most probable by more than cold or warm combined, that report will guarantee some legendary headlines in the tabloids. Getting ready for a good old laugh. Horror arctic blast etc. as boffins predict Britain to freeze and be colder than (find some cold sounding place).

[iceman1991]

Anyone know what Jrodger thinking this year for winter he’s not preety much there on his forecast ? 

[iceman1991]

10 minutes ago, Joao 02 said:

Yes this is very good forecaster; I was in Portugal for some recent years I can't remember was maybe 3 years ago many agencies were forecasting a low pressure winter for S Europe but AEMET went for High pressure in Iberia and was correct. 

This good news for us uk ? 

[Don]

7 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

This good news for us uk ? 

No definitely not!  

18 minutes ago, Joao 02 said:

Yes this is very good forecaster; I was in Portugal for some recent years I can't remember was maybe 3 years ago many agencies were forecasting a low pressure winter for S Europe but AEMET went for High pressure in Iberia and was correct. 

I think this was four years ago and the UK had a mild winter 2018/19.  Will have to hope they're wrong this time.....

Edited November 1, 2022 by Don